scholarly journals Modeling and forecasting of epidemic spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 based in the nonlinear stochastic dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Official Data

Abstract In this paper, we propose a stochastic model based on Itô diffusion as mathematical model for time evolution of new cases N(t) of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in each day t. We propose a correspondent stochastic differential equation (SDE) analogs to classical differential equations for epidemic growing for some diseases as smallpox and typhoid fever. Furthermore, we made an analysis using the Fokker-Planck equation giving an estimating of the new cases in each day t as the mean half-width of the distribution P(N,t) of new cases. Our results display that the model based on Itô diffusion fit well to the results supported by healthy Brazilian agencies due to large uncertain in the official results and to the low number of tests realized generating so a strong randomness in the official data.

scholarly journals Modeling of spreading of the novel coronavirus based in the stochastic dynamic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract In this paper, one proposes a stochastic model based on Itô diffusion as mathematical model for time evolution of novel cases N(t) of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in each day t. I propose a correspondent stochastic differential equation (SDE) analogous to classical differential equation for epidemic growing for some diseases as smallpox and typhoid fever. Furthermore, we made an analysis using the Fokker-Planck equation giving an estimating of the novel cases in the day t as the mean half-width of the distribution P(N,t) of novel cases. My results display that the model based on Itô diffusion fits well to the results supported by healthy Brazilian agencies due to large uncertainly in the official data generated by the low number of tests realized generating so a strong randomness in the official data.

scholarly journals Stochastic analysis using public data for forecasting of epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo dos Santos Lima
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Stochastic Analysis ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract We propose a stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus based in data supported by the Brazilian health agencies. Furthermore, we performed an analysis using the Fokker-Planck equation estimating the novel cases in the day t as the mean half-width of the distribution of novel cases P(N,t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion adjusts well to the results supplied by health Brazilian agencies due to large uncertain in the official data and to the low number of tests realized in the population.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supported by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, EUA and India is investigated. We perform the numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus (SDE) for the estimating of novel cases daily as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker-Planck equation for the density probability distribution of novel cases, P(N(t); t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertain in the official data and to the number of tests realized in the populations of each country.

scholarly journals Modelling based in the stochastic dynamics for the time evolution of the COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo dos Santos Lima
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Evolution Equation ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Stochastic Differential Equation ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
Time Dynamics ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
System Of Particles ◽  
Effective Description

Abstract The stochastic differential equation (SDE) corresponding to nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation where the nonlinearity appearing in this evolution equation can be interpreted as providing an effective description of a system of particles interacting is obtained. Additionally, we propose a stochastic model for time dynamics of the COVID-19 based in the set of data supported by the Brazilian health agencies.

scholarly journals Modelling based in the stochastic dynamics for the time evolution of the COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Evolution Equation ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Stochastic Differential Equation ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
Time Dynamics ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
System Of Particles ◽  
Effective Description

Abstract The stochastic differential equation (SDE) corresponding to nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation where the nonlinearity appearing in this evolution equation can be interpreted as providing an effective description of a system of particles interacting is obtained. Additionally, we propose a stochastic model for time dynamics of the COVID-19 based in the set of data supported by the Brazilian health agencies.

scholarly journals Modeling and forecasting the peak flows of a river

2002 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 553-562
Author(s):  
Mario Lefebvre
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
The Mean

A stochastic model is found for the value of the peak flows of the Mistassibi river in Québec, Canada, when the river is in spate. Next, the objective is to forecast the value of the coming peak flow about four days in advance, when the flow begins to show a marked increase. Both the stochastic model proposed in the paper and a model based on linear regression are used to produce the forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is assessed by considering the standard errors and the peak criterion. The forecasts are much more accurate than those obtained by taking the mean value of the previous peak flows.

scholarly journals CONSTRUCTION AND VERIFICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF MASS SPECTROMETRY DATA

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-14
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Plechawska-Wójcik
Keyword(s):  
Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mixture Models ◽  
Mass Spectrometry Data ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Mean

The article presents issues concerning construction, adjustment and implementation of mass spectrometry mathematical model based on Gaussians and Mixture Models and the mean spectrum. This task is essential to the analysis and it needs specification of many parameters of the model.

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