scholarly journals Climate-driven sea level extremes compounded by marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia

Author(s):  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Gerald Meehl ◽  
Shoichiro Kido ◽  
Tomoki Tozuka ◽  
...  

Abstract The low-lying coastal and island regions are vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme events. Compounded by marine heatwaves, sea level extremes have devastating impacts on coastal community and marine ecosystems. As long tide gauge records are sparse, sea level extremes around Indonesia are poorly understood, and the Compound Height-Heat EXtreme (C-HHEX) events remain unexplored. Here we combine in situ and satellite observations with model simulations, to investigate the long-lasting (>1 month) sea level extremes and C-HHEXs along Indonesian coasts of the Indian Ocean since the 1960s. We find that 90% (80%) of the extreme sea level (C-HHEX) events, with a maximum monthly sea level anomaly of 0.45m, are clustered in an 8yr period of 2010-2017, due to anthropogenic global sea level rise and decadal enhancement driven by changing surface winds associated with a combined invigoration of the Indian and Pacific Walker Cells, atmospheric overturning circulations in east-west direction. Remote and local surface wind anomalies associated with negative phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) - enhanced by La Niña – drive individual C-HHEX events under a precondition of shallow thermocline (a region of subsurface ocean with temperature decreases rapidly downward). By contrast, winds associated with monsoon and its intraseasonal oscillations force the sea level alone events under a deep thermocline condition. We conclude that the shoaling thermocline in eastern Indian Ocean under anthropogenic warming and global sea level rise favorably precondition the ocean for stronger and more frequent sea level extremes and C-HHEXs, increasing the environmental stress on Indonesia.

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suresh Palanisamy Vadivel ◽  
Duk-jin Kim ◽  
Jungkyo Jung ◽  
Yang-Ki Cho ◽  
Ki-Jong Han ◽  
...  

Vertical land motion at tide gauges influences sea level rise acceleration; this must be addressed for interpreting reliable sea level projections. In recent years, tide gauge records for the Eastern coast of Korea have revealed rapid increases in sea level rise compared with the global mean. Pohang Tide Gauge Station has shown a +3.1 cm/year sea level rise since 2013. This study aims to estimate the vertical land motion that influences relative sea level rise observations at Pohang by applying a multi-track Persistent Scatter Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) time-series analysis to Sentinel-1 SAR data acquired during 2015–2017. The results, which were obtained at a high spatial resolution (10 m), indicate vertical ground motion of −2.55 cm/year at the Pohang Tide Gauge Station; this was validated by data from a collocated global positioning system (GPS) station. The subtraction of InSAR-derived subsidence rates from sea level rise at the Pohang Tide Gauge Station is 6 mm/year; thus, vertical land motion significantly dominates the sea level acceleration. Natural hazards related to the sea level rise are primarily assessed by relative sea level changes obtained from tide gauges; therefore, tide gauge records should be reviewed for rapid vertical land motion along the vulnerable coastal areas.


2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Beenstock ◽  
Daniel Felsenstein ◽  
Eyal Frank ◽  
Yaniv Reingewertz

Ocean Science ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 617-628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. H. Luu ◽  
P. Tkalich ◽  
T. W. Tay

Abstract. Sea level rise due to climate change is non-uniform globally, necessitating regional estimates. Peninsular Malaysia is located in the middle of Southeast Asia, bounded from the west by the Malacca Strait, from the east by the South China Sea (SCS), and from the south by the Singapore Strait. The sea level along the peninsula may be influenced by various regional phenomena native to the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. To examine the variability and trend of sea level around the peninsula, tide gauge records and satellite altimetry are analyzed taking into account vertical land movements (VLMs). At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) around Peninsular Malaysia on the order of 5–25 cm are mainly monsoon driven. Sea levels at eastern and western coasts respond differently to the Asian monsoon: two peaks per year in the Malacca Strait due to South Asian–Indian monsoon; an annual cycle in the remaining region mostly due to the East Asian–western Pacific monsoon. At interannual scale, regional sea level variability in the range of ±6 cm is correlated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). SLAs in the Malacca Strait side are further correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the range of ±5 cm. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of IOD, whilst rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and negative values of the IOD index. At seasonal to interannual scales, we observe the separation of the sea level patterns in the Singapore Strait, between the Raffles Lighthouse and Tanjong Pagar tide stations, likely caused by a dynamic constriction in the narrowest part. During the observation period 1986–2013, average relative rates of sea level rise derived from tide gauges in Malacca Strait and along the east coast of the peninsula are 3.6±1.6 and 3.7±1.1 mm yr−1, respectively. Correcting for respective VLMs (0.8±2.6 and 0.9±2.2 mm yr−1), their corresponding geocentric sea level rise rates are estimated at 4.4±3.1 and 4.6±2.5 mm yr−1. The geocentric rates are about 25 % faster than those measured at tide gauges around the peninsula; however, the level of uncertainty associated with VLM data is relatively high. For the common period between 1993 and 2009, geocentric sea level rise values along the Malaysian coast are similar from tide gauge records and satellite altimetry (3.1 and 2.7 mm yr−1, respectively), and arguably correspond to the global trend.


Author(s):  
Carlos Antunes

Data collected at the Cascais tide gauge, located on the west coast of Portugal Mainland, have been analyzed and sea level rise rates have been updated. Based on a bootstrapping linear regression model and on polynomial adjustments, time series are used to calculate different empirical projections for the 21st century sea level rise, by estimating the initial velocity and its corresponding acceleration. The results are consistent to an accelerated sea level rise, showing evidence of a faster rise than previous century estimates. Based on different numerical methods of second order polynomial fitting, it is possible to build a set of projection models of relative sea level rise. Appling the same methods to regional sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry, additional projections are also built with good consistency. Both data sets, tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, enabled the development of an ensemble of projection models. The relative sea level rise projections are crucial for national coastal planning and management since extreme sea level scenarios can potentially cause erosion and flooding. Based on absolute vertical velocities obtained by integrating global sea level models, neo-tectonic studies and permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) station time series, it is possible to transform relative into absolute sea level rise scenarios, and vice-versa, allowing the generation of absolute sea level rise projection curves and its comparison with already established global projections. The sea level rise observed at the Cascais tide gauge has always shown a significant correlation with global sea level rise observations, evidencing relatively low rates of composed vertical land velocity from tectonic and post-glacial isostatic adjustment, and residual synoptic regional dynamic effects rather than a trend. An ensemble of sea level projection models for the 21st century is proposed with its corresponding probability density function, both for relative and absolute sea level rise for the west coast of Portugal Mainland.


Eos ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah Crane

Tide gauges can help measure sea level change, but their limited locations and short records make it hard to pinpoint trends. Now researchers are evaluating the instruments' limitations.


2020 ◽  
Vol 222 (3) ◽  
pp. 1952-1964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Heidarzadeh ◽  
Alexander Rabinovich ◽  
Satoshi Kusumoto ◽  
C P Rajendran

ABSTRACT In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean (Sumatra-Andaman) tsunami, numerous survey teams investigated its effects on various locations across the Indian Ocean. However, these efforts were focused only on sites that experienced major destruction and a high death toll. As a consequence, some Indian Ocean coastal megacities were not examined. Among the cities not surveyed was Mumbai, the principal west coast port and economical capital of India with a population of more than 12 million. Mumbai is at risk of tsunamis from two major subduction zones in the Indian Ocean: the Sumatra–Andaman subduction zone (SASZ) and the Makran subduction zone (MSZ). As a part of the present study, we conducted a field survey of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami effects in Mumbai, analysed the available tide gauge records and performed tsunami simulations. Our field survey in 2018 January found run-up heights of 1.6−3.3 m in the Mumbai area. According to our analysis of tide gauge data, tsunami trough-to-crest heights in Okha (550 km to the north of Mumbai) and in Mormugao (410 km to the south of Mumbai) were 46 cm and 108 cm, respectively. Simulations of a hypothetical MSZ Mw 9.0 earthquake and tsunami, together with the Mw 9.1 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami, show that the tsunami heights generated in Mumbai by an MSZ tsunami would be significantly larger than those generated by the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunami. This result indicates that future tsunami hazard mitigation for Mumbai needs to be based on a potential large MSZ earthquake rather than an SASZ earthquake.


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