scholarly journals A Modular Tide Level Prediction Method Based On NARX Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenhao Wu ◽  
Lianbo LI ◽  
Jianchuan YIN ◽  
Wenyu LYU ◽  
Wenjun ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Harmonic Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Astronomical Tide ◽  
Tide Level ◽  
Narx Neural Network

Abstract This paper proposed a modular tide level prediction model based on nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) neural network in order to improve the accuracy of tide prediction. The model divides tide data into two parts: the astronomical tide data affected by celestial tide generating force, and non-astronomical tide data affected by various environmental factors. NARX neural network and harmonic analysis are used to simulate and predict the non-astronomical and astronomical part of tide respectively, and then the final result is obtained by combining the two parts. In this paper, the tide data from Yorktown, USA, are used to simulate the prediction of tide level, and the results are compared with the traditional harmonic analysis (HA) method and Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation (GA-BP) neural network. The results show that as a dynamic neural network, NARX neural network modular prediction model is more suitable for the analysis and prediction of time series data and has better stability and accuracy.

scholarly journals Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving Behavior

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Longhai Yang ◽  
Hong Xu ◽  
Xiqiao Zhang ◽  
Shuai Li ◽  
Wenchao Ji
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Real Time Data

The application and development of new technology make it possible to acquire real-time data of vehicles. Based on these real-time data, the behavior of vehicles can be analyzed. The prediction of vehicle behavior provides data support for the fine management of traffic. This paper proposes speed and acceleration have fractal features by R/S analysis of the time series data of speed and acceleration. Based on the characteristic analysis of microscopic parameters, the characteristic indexes of parameters are quantified, the fractal multistep prediction model of microparameters is established, and the BP (back propagation neural networks) model is established to estimate predictable step of fractal prediction model. The fractal multistep prediction model is used to predict speed acceleration in the predictable step. NGSIM trajectory data are used to test the multistep prediction model. The results show that the proposed fractal multistep prediction model can effectively realize the multistep prediction of vehicle speed.

GRU-corr Neural Network Optimized by Improved PSO Algorithm for Time Series Prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (07n08) ◽  
pp. 2040010
Author(s):  
Shao-Pei Ji ◽  
Yu-Long Meng ◽  
Liang Yan ◽  
Gui-Shan Dong ◽  
Dong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Pso Algorithm ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Network Parameters ◽  
Angle Data

Time series data from real problems have nonlinear, non-smooth, and multi-scale composite characteristics. This paper first proposes a gated recurrent unit-correction (GRU-corr) network model, which adds a correction layer to the GRU neural network. Then, a adaptive staged variation PSO (ASPSO) is proposed. Finally, to overcome the drawbacks of the imprecise selection of the GRU-corr network parameters and obtain the high-precision global optimization of network parameters, weight parameters and the hidden nodes number of GRU-corr is optimized by ASPSO, and a time series prediction model (ASPSO-GRU-corr) is proposed based on the GRU-corr optimized by ASPSO. In the experiment, a comparative analysis of the optimization performance of ASPSO on a benchmark function was performed to verify its validity, and then the ASPSO-GRU-corr model is used to predict the ship motion cross-sway angle data. The results show that, ASPSO has better optimization performance and convergence speed compared with other algorithms, while the ASPSO-GRU-corr has higher generalization performance and lower architecture complexity. The ASPSO-GRU-corr can reveal the intrinsic multi-scale composite features of the time series, which is a reliable nonlinear and non-steady time series prediction method.

A Chaotic Prediction Method to Time Series Data

2010 ◽  
Vol 113-116 ◽  
pp. 1367-1370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Sheng Liu ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Xue Ping Hu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Drinking Water Quality ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gray Model ◽  
Forecast Method

There are many ways to predict drinking water quality such as neural network, gray model, ARIMA. But the prediction precise is need to improve. This paper proposes a new forecast method according the characteristic of drinking water quality and the evidence showed that the prediction is effectively. So it is able to being used in actual prediction.

scholarly journals PREDICTION MODEL OF AMMONIA CONCENTRATION IN YELLOW-FEATHER BROILERS HOUSE DURING WINTER BASED ON EEMD-GRU

2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-70
Author(s):  
Zeying Xu ◽  
Xiuguo Zou ◽  
Zhengling Yin ◽  
Shikai Zhang ◽  
Yuanyuan Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Ventilation System ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Ammonia Concentration ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Central System ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Broiler House

In winter, the poor ventilation conditions in broiler houses may lead to high ammonia concentration, which affects the health of yellow-feather broilers or even causes the death of many broilers. This research used a machine learning model to predict the ammonia concentration in a broiler house during winter. After analysis, it was found that the ammonia generation in the broiler house was a gradual accumulation featured by non-linear data. After the broilers entered the broiler house for several days, and the ammonia concentration reached a certain value, a ventilation system was used for regulating the concentration. Firstly, the back-propagation (BP) neural network model and gated recurrent unit (GRU) model were used for predicting the ammonia concentration, respectively. Then, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) was performed on the time series data of ammonia concentration in the broiler house. After that, the EEMD-GRU prediction model has been established for the intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and the temperature and humidity data in the broiler house. Finally, all component results were summarized to obtain the final prediction result. A comparison was conducted among the prediction results obtained by the above three models. The results show that the root mean square errors of the above three models are 6.2 ppm, 4.4 ppm, and 2.4 ppm, respectively, and the average absolute errors were 4.9 ppm, 2.8 ppm, and 1.6 ppm, respectively. It could be seen that the EEMD-GRU model had higher accuracy in predicting the ammonia concentration in the broiler house. The EEMD-GRU model can effectively predict the ammonia concentration in broiler houses, facilitating the feedback to the central system for timely adjustment.

scholarly journals A Double-Channel Hybrid Deep Neural Network Based on CNN and BiLSTM for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (24) ◽  
pp. 7109
Author(s):  
Chengying Zhao ◽  
Xianzhen Huang ◽  
Yuxiong Li ◽  
Muhammad Yousaf Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Lstm Network ◽  
Double Channel

In recent years, prognostic and health management (PHM) has played an important role in industrial engineering. Efficient remaining useful life (RUL) prediction can ensure the development of maintenance strategies and reduce industrial losses. Recently, data-driven based deep learning RUL prediction methods have attracted more attention. The convolution neural network (CNN) is a kind of deep neural network widely used in RUL prediction. It shows great potential for application in RUL prediction. A CNN is used to extract the features of time-series data according to the spatial feature method. This way of processing features without considering the time dimension will affect the prediction accuracy of the model. On the contrary, the commonly used long short-term memory (LSTM) network considers the timing of the data. However, compared with CNN, it lacks spatial data extraction capabilities. This paper proposes a double-channel hybrid prediction model based on the CNN and a bidirectional LSTM network to avoid those drawbacks. The sliding time window is used for data preprocessing, and an improved piece-wise linear function is used for model validating. The prediction model is evaluated using the C-MAPSS dataset provided by NASA. The predicted results show the proposed prediction model to have a better prediction performance compared with other state-of-the-art models.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Counter Propagation Neural Network Control for a Class of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vandana Sakhre ◽  
Sanjeev Jain ◽  
Vilas S. Sapkal ◽  
Dev P. Agarwal
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical Systems ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Network Control ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical ◽  
Single Output ◽  
Propagation Network

Fuzzy Counter Propagation Neural Network (FCPN) controller design is developed, for a class of nonlinear dynamical systems. In this process, the weight connecting between the instar and outstar, that is, input-hidden and hidden-output layer, respectively, is adjusted by using Fuzzy Competitive Learning (FCL). FCL paradigm adopts the principle of learning, which is used to calculate Best Matched Node (BMN) which is proposed. This strategy offers a robust control of nonlinear dynamical systems. FCPN is compared with the existing network like Dynamic Network (DN) and Back Propagation Network (BPN) on the basis of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Best Fit Rate (BFR), and so forth. It envisages that the proposed FCPN gives better results than DN and BPN. The effectiveness of the proposed FCPN algorithms is demonstrated through simulations of four nonlinear dynamical systems and multiple input and single output (MISO) and a single input and single output (SISO) gas furnace Box-Jenkins time series data.

scholarly journals Coupling Normalization with Moving Window in Backpropagation Neural Network (BNN) for Passive Microwave Soil Moisture Retrieval

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soo See Chai ◽  
Kok Luong Goh ◽  
Yee Hui Robin Chang ◽  
Kwan Yong Sim
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Moving Window ◽  
Window Method ◽  
Testing Data

AbstractA common practice to capture the non-stationary characteristics of the time series data in Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is by randomly dividing the whole set of available data into training, validation and testing, i.e. the data in validation and testing are represented in the training data. Consequently, the usability of the developed model on data not represented by the training data used during the network model development process is always doubtful. In this work, we present a back-propagation neural network (BNN) model trained using one-day history data to predict soil moisture data at 1 km resolution for two future dates. Specifically, high soil moisture values were observed in the training data while the testing data were characterized by drier conditions due to minimal or no rainfall. Our model uses separate mean and standard deviation statistics values from the training and testing data, respectively, to the z-normalized data. With data pre-processed using this method, the BNN model next uses a moving window of size 4 km × 4 km to capture the spatial variability of the soil moisture throughout the 40 km × 40 km study area. The coupling of the normalization and moving window method managed to achieve average soil moisture with Root Mean Square (RMSE) of 3.67% and correlation coefficient, R2 of 0.89. By only using the suggested normalization without the moving window method, the BNN model managed to achieve an average RMSE of barely 5.82% with R2 = 0.83. When comparing with the normal practice of using the same mean and standard deviation statistics of the training data in the testing data, the retrieval accuracy of the BNN model deteriorates to 8.86% with R2 = 0.32. The experiment results demonstrated that the proposed coupling method performed better in terms of both RMSE and R2 for soil moisture retrieval.

scholarly journals High Accuracy Modeling for Solar PV Power Generation Using Noble BD-LSTM-Based Neural Networks with EMA

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (20) ◽  
pp. 7339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youngil Kim ◽  
Keunjoo Seo ◽  
Robert J. Harrington ◽  
Yongju Lee ◽  
Hyeok Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Condition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Pv Power Generation

More accurate self-forecasting not only provides a better-integrated solution for electricity grids but also reduces the cost of operation of the entire power system. To predict solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation (SPVG) for a specific hour, this paper proposes the combination of a two-step neural network bi directional long short-term memory (BD-LSTM) model with an artificial neural network (ANN) model using exponential moving average (EMA) preprocessing. In this study, four types of historical input data are used: hourly PV generation for one week (168 h) ahead, hourly horizontal radiation, hourly ambient temperature, and hourly device (surface) temperature, downloaded from the Korea Open Data Portal. The first strategy is employed using the LSTM prediction model, which forecasts the SPVG of the desired time through the data from the previous week, which is preprocessed to smooth the dynamic SPVG using the EMA approach. The SPVG was predicted using the LSTM model according to the trend of the previous time-series data. However, slight errors still occur because the weather condition of the time is not reflected at the desired time. Therefore, we proposed a second strategy of an ANN model for more accurate estimation to compensate for this slight error using the four inputs predicted by the LSTM model. As a result, the LSTM prediction model with the ANN estimation model using EMA preprocessing exhibited higher accuracy in performance than other options for SPVG.

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