A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Women with Uterine Sarcoma: A Large Population-Based Study
Abstract Background: Uterine Sarcoma (US) is a rare malignant uterine tumor in women with aggressive behavior and rapid progression. The purpose of this study was to perform a comprehensive nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) for US based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.Methods: Retrospetive population-based study was conducted using the data of patients with US between 2010 and 2015 from SEER database. They were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort in a 7-to-3 ratio. Multivariate Cox analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors. Subsequently, nomogram was established to predict the patients’ CSS. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated by concordance index (C-index) and the area under the curve (AUC). Finally, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration plotting, and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the benefits of the new prediction model.Results: A total of 3861 patients with US were included in our study. As revealed in multivariate Cox analysis, age at diagnosis, race, marital status, insurance record, tumor size, pathology grade, histological type, SEER stage, AJCC stage, surgery status, radiotherapy status, and chemotherapy status were found to be independent prognositic factors. In our nomogram, pathology grade has the highest risk on CSS in US, followed by age at diagnosis, then surgery status. Comparing to the AJCC staging system, the new nomogram showed better predictive discrimination with higher C-index in both training and validation cohort (0.796 and 0.767 vs0.706 and 0.713, respectively) . Furthermore, AUC value, calibration plotting, NRI, IDI, and DCA also demonstrated better performance than the traditional system.Conclusion: Our study validated the first comprehensive nomogram for US which could provide more accurately and individualized survival predictions for US patients in clinical practice.