A Nomogram From The SEER Database For Predicting The Prognosis of Small Cell Lung Cancer With Different Patterns of Metastases
Abstract Backgroud: Distant metastases are one of the leading causes of high mortality in small cell lung cancer (SCLC). This research is aimed to investigate the different patterns of metastases in SCLC patients and their impact on prognosis based on the data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Methods: The 2010-2015 SEER database of 15637 SCLC patients diagnosed from January to August were used as a training set for development of a nomogram. 7310 SCLC patients diagnosed from September to December were used as the validation set. Results: The overall survival (OS) of SCLC patients with no distant metastases, bone metastases, brain metastases, and liver metastases were 16.6, 9.1, 8.8 and 6.0 months, respectively. Patients with solitary liver metastases have the worst prognosis in the cases with single metastatic site. In the patients with multi-site metastases, the clinical outcomes of the cases combined with liver metastases were the worst. Our Cox model indicated that age, gender, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, metastases, chemotherapy, radiation and surgery were independent predictors for OS in SCLC patients. The c-index value of nomogram was 7.52 in training set and 7.48 in of validation set for predicting OS in SCLC, indicating that the predictive ability of our nomogram model was of great superiority.Conclusion: The prognosis of SCLC patients with liver metastases alone or combined with other metastatic sites were worse than other metastatic models. Our nomogram model that integrated significant factors can aid as an individualized clinical predictive tool in SCLC patients.