scholarly journals How do pandemics end? Two decades of recurrent outbreak risk following the main waves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Schroeder ◽  
Spyridon Lazarakis ◽  
Rebecca Mancy ◽  
Konstantinos Angelopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
National Data ◽  
Health Records ◽  
Pareto Distributions ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
The Us ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The Uk

Abstract We analyse the dynamic evolution of disease outbreak risk after the main waves of the 1918-19 “Spanish flu” pandemic in the US and in major cities in the UK, and after the 1890-91 “Russian flu” pandemic in England and Wales. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model the stochastic process of mortality rates after the main pandemic waves as a sequence of bounded Pareto distributions with an exponentially decaying tail parameter. In all cases, we find elevated mortality risk lasting nearly two decades. An application to COVID-19 under model uncertainty shows that in 80% of model-predicted time series, the annual probability of outbreaks exceeding 500 deaths per million is above 20% for a decade, remaining above 10% for two decades.

scholarly journals How do pandemics end? Two decades of recurrent outbreak risk following the main waves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Schroeder ◽  
Spyridon Lazarakis ◽  
Rebecca Mancy ◽  
Konstantinos Angelopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
National Data ◽  
Health Records ◽  
Pareto Distributions ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
The Us ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The Uk

Abstract We analyse the dynamic evolution of disease outbreak risk after the main waves of the 1918-19 “Spanish flu” pandemic in the US and in major cities in the UK, and after the 1890-91 “Russian flu” pandemic in England and Wales. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model the stochastic process of mortality rates after the main pandemic waves as a sequence of bounded Pareto distributions with an exponentially decaying tail parameter. In all cases, we find elevated mortality risk lasting nearly two decades. An application to COVID-19 under model uncertainty shows that in 90% of model-predicted time series, the annual probability of outbreaks exceeding 500 deaths per million is above 20% for a decade, remaining above 10% for two decades.

scholarly journals US AND UK LABOUR MARKETS BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 CRASH

2020 ◽  
Vol 252 ◽  
pp. R52-R69 ◽  
Author(s):  
David N.F. Bell ◽  
David G. Blanchflower
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Unemployment Insurance ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
National Data ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Distributional Impact

We examine labour market performance in the US and the UK prior to the onset of the Covid-19 crash. We then track the changes that have occurred in the months and days from the beginning of March 2020 using what we call the Economics of Walking About (EWA) that shows a collapse twenty times faster and much deeper than the Great Recession. We examine unemployment insurance claims by state by day in the US as well as weekly national data. We track the distributional impact of the shock and show that already it is hitting the most vulnerable groups who are least able to work from home the hardest – the young, the least educated and minorities. We have no official labour market data for the UK past January but see evidence that job placements have fallen sharply. We report findings from an online poll fielded from 11–16 April 2020 showing that a third of workers in Canada and the US report that they have lost at least half of their income due to the Covid-19 crisis, compared with a quarter in the UK and 45 per cent in China. We estimate that the unemployment rate in the US is around 20 per cent in April. It is hard to know what it is in the UK given the paucity of data, but it has gone up a lot.

scholarly journals Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the Euro Area, the US and the UK

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
João M. Sousa ◽  
Ricardo M. Sousa
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk

‘To see oursels as ithers see us’: Reflections on Scottish Independence from the United States

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Euan Hague ◽  
Alan Mackie
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Scottish Diaspora

The United States media have given rather little attention to the question of the Scottish referendum despite important economic, political and military links between the US and the UK/Scotland. For some in the US a ‘no’ vote would be greeted with relief given these ties: for others, a ‘yes’ vote would be acclaimed as an underdog escaping England's imperium, a narrative clearly echoing America's own founding story. This article explores commentary in the US press and media as well as reporting evidence from on-going interviews with the Scottish diaspora in the US. It concludes that there is as complex a picture of the 2014 referendum in the United States as there is in Scotland.

Identity Politics and Migration

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-158
Author(s):  
Vytis Čiubrinskas
Keyword(s):  
National Identity ◽  
Identity Politics ◽  
Host Country ◽  
Social Anthropology ◽  
The Us ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Uk ◽  
A Current ◽  
Respective Host

The Centre of Social Anthropology (CSA) at Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) in Kaunas has coordinated projects on this, including a current project on 'Retention of Lithuanian Identity under Conditions of Europeanisation and Globalisation: Patterns of Lithuanian-ness in Response to Identity Politics in Ireland, Norway, Spain, the UK and the US'. This has been designed as a multidisciplinary project. The actual expressions of identity politics of migrant, 'diasporic' or displaced identity of Lithuanian immigrants in their respective host country are being examined alongside with the national identity politics of those countries.

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