A modelling study on the vaccination against COVID-19 in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract The long-awaited roll-out of vaccination programmes against COVID-19 from across the globe has fuelled hope for a reduction in the incidence of cases and deaths, as well as the resumption of economic and social activities. Despite being the most effective measure to mitigate the pandemic, especially in regions where non-pharmaceutical interventions had been ineffective, many people suffered from the lack of efforts by government officials to conduct vaccination. In Brazil, vaccination has always been cutting across party political and ideological lines, which have delayed the start of vaccination and brought the whole process into disrepute. Such disputes put the immunisation of the population in the background and create additional hurdles beyond the pandemic, mistrust and scepticism over vaccines. We conduct a mathematical modelling study to analyse the impacts of late vaccination and with slowly increasing coverage, as well as how harmful it would be if part of the population refused to get vaccinated or missed the second dose in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The general framework we propose can be extended to analyse the epidemic situation in any region. Our results indicate that if the start of vaccination had been 30 days earlier, combined with efforts to drive vaccination rates up, about 18,000 deaths could have been averted. Furthermore, the slow pace of vaccination and the low demand for the second dose could cause a resurgence of cases as early as 2022.

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Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-936335/v2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gustavo Libotte ◽

Lucas Anjos ◽

Regina Célia Cerqueira de Almeida ◽

Sandra Mara Malta ◽

Roberto Medronho

Keyword(s):

Rio De Janeiro ◽

Technological Development ◽

Gaussian Process Regression ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

The State ◽

National Council ◽

Vaccination Rates ◽

Whole Process ◽

Credible Intervals ◽

Modelling Study

Abstract Background: In Brazil, vaccination has always been cutting across party political and ideological lines, which have delayed its start and brought the whole process into disrepute. Such divergences put the immunisation of the population in the background and create additional hurdles beyond the pandemic, mistrust and scepticism over vaccines.Methods: We conduct a mathematical modelling study to analyse the impacts of late vaccination and with slowly increasing coverage, as well as how harmful it would be if part of the population refused to get vaccinated or missed the second dose. We analyse data from confirmed cases, deaths caused by COVID-19, and vaccination in the state of Rio de Janeiro in the period between March 10, 2020, and October 27, 2021. The classical SIR model is extended to consider the effect of vaccination (efficacy, interval between doses, and vaccination rate) and data sets are regularised using Gaussian Process Regression. The model parameter distributions are estimated using Bayesian inference, aiming to obtain credible intervals in the simulations.Findings: We estimate that if the start of vaccination had been 30 days earlier, combined with efforts to drive vaccination rates up, 31,657 (25,801–35,117) deaths could have been averted. Our results also indicate that the slow pace of vaccination and the low demand for the second dose could cause a resurgence of cases as early as 2022.Interpretation: The government's inaction and lack of a strategic plan to fight the pandemic meant that vaccination started late, leading to thousands of deaths that could have been prevented. Even when reaching the expected vaccination coverage for the first dose, it is still challenging to increase adherence to the second dose and maintain a high vaccination rate to avoid new outbreaks.Funding: Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Supporting Research in the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) and Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).

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Integração local da população refugiada no estado do Rio de Janeiro:

Revista Prumo ◽

10.24168/revistaprumo.v4i6.1179 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (6) ◽

pp. 42-53

Author(s):

Ariane Rego de Paiva ◽

Roberta Gomes Thomé

Keyword(s):

Rio De Janeiro ◽

Social Protection ◽

The State ◽

Refugee Population ◽

Local Integration

This work presents a problematization about the local integration of refugees as one of the lasting solutions proposed by the UNHCR and the present challenges for the consolidation of policies of social protection for this segment in the state of Rio de Janeiro. This study was made through the bibliographic analisis and systematization of a workshop about the thematics carried with governamental and non-governamental agents and leaderships in the refugee population in the occasion of the seminar Mobility Crossroads: knowledge and practices in protection policies for refugee populations and migrants in vulnerable situation, which occurred in November 2017, organized by Cátedra Sérgio Vieira de Mello of PUC-Rio.

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PERSINGGUNGAN KEWENANGAN MENGADILI PENYALAHGUNAAN DISKRESI ANTARA PENGADILAN TUN DAN PENGADILAN TIPIKOR / INTERCEPTION OF JUSTICE AUTHORITY OF DISCRETION ABUSE BETWEEN ADMINISTRATION COURT AND CORRUPTION COURTS

JURNAL HUKUM DAN PERADILAN ◽

10.25216/jhp.7.2.2018.213-236 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 213

Author(s):

Budi Suhariyanto

Keyword(s):

Supreme Court ◽

Criminal Law ◽

Administrative Law ◽

The State ◽

Government Officials ◽

Criminal Process ◽

The Supreme Court ◽

State Finance ◽

The Law ◽

To Receive

Diskresi sebagai wewenang bebas, keberadaannya rentan akan disalahgunakan. Penyalahgunaan diskresi yang berimplikasi merugikan keuangan negara dapat dituntutkan pertanggungjawabannya secara hukum administrasi maupun hukum pidana. Mengingat selama ini peraturan perundang-undangan tentang pemberantasan tindak pidana korupsi tidak merumuskan secara rinci yang dimaksudkan unsur menyalahgunakan kewenangan maka para hakim menggunakan konsep penyalahgunaan wewenang dari hukum administrasi. Problema muncul saat diberlakukannya Undang-Undang Nomor 30 Tahun 2014 dimana telah memicu persinggungan dalam hal kewenangan mengadili penyalahgunaan wewenang (termasuk diskresi) antara Pengadilan Tata Usaha Negara dengan Pengadilan Tindak Pidana Korupsi. Pada perkembangannya, persinggungan kewenangan mengadili tersebut ditegaskan oleh Peraturan Mahkamah Agung Nomor 4 Tahun 2015 bahwa PTUN berwenang menerima, memeriksa, dan memutus permohonan penilaian ada atau tidak ada penyalahgunaan wewenang (termasuk diskresi) dalam Keputusan dan/atau Tindakan Pejabat Pemerintahan sebelum adanya proses pidana. Sehubungan tidak dijelaskan tentang definisi dan batasan proses pidana yang dimaksud, maka timbul penafsiran yang berbeda. Perlu diadakan kesepakatan bersama dan dituangkan dalam regulasi tentang tapal batas persinggungan yang jelas tanpa meniadakan kewenangan pengujian penyalahgunaan wewenang diskresi pada Pengadilan TUN.Discretion as free authority is vulnerable to being misused. The abuse of discretion implicating the state finance may be prosecuted by both administrative and criminal law. In view of the fact that the law on corruption eradication does not formulate in detail the intended element of authority abuse, the judges use the concept of authority abuse from administrative law. Problems arise when the enactment of Law No. 30 of 2014 triggered an interception in terms of justice/ adjudicate authority on authority abuse (including discretion) between the Administrative Court and Corruption Court. In its development, the interception of justice authority is affirmed by Regulation of the Supreme Court Number 4 of 2015 that the Administrative Court has the authority to receive, examine and decide upon the appeal there is or there is no misuse of authority in the Decision and / or Action of Government Officials prior to the criminal process. That is, shortly before the commencement of the criminal process then that's when the authority of PTUN decides to judge the misuse of authority over the case. In this context, Perma No. 4 of 2015 has imposed restrictions on the authority of the TUN Court in prosecuting the abuse of discretionary authority.

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Locaaao De Bens E Serviios De Informmtica No Estado Do Rio De Janeiro (Rental of Informatics Goods and Services in the State of Rio De Janeiro)

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.2618457 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Andrr Saddy

Keyword(s):

Rio De Janeiro ◽

The State ◽

Goods And Services

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Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against local transmission of COVID-19: An individual-based modelling study

Infectious Disease Modelling ◽

10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.005 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Chuang Xu ◽

Yongzhen Pei ◽

Shengqiang Liu ◽

Jinzhi Lei

Keyword(s):

Local Transmission ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽

Modelling Study

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Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

The Lancet Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00143-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sam Moore ◽

Edward M Hill ◽

Michael J Tildesley ◽

Louise Dyson ◽

Matt J Keeling

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modelling ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽

Modelling Study

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STATE-LEVEL DIETARY DIVERSITY AS A CONTEXTUAL DETERMINANT OF NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF CHILDREN IN INDIA: A MULTILEVEL APPROACH

Journal of Biosocial Science ◽

10.1017/s0021932017000013 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 50 (1) ◽

pp. 26-52 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Kakoli Borkotoky ◽

Sayeed Unisa ◽

Ashish Kumar Gupta

Keyword(s):

Nutritional Status ◽

Dietary Diversity ◽

State Level ◽

The State ◽

Sample Survey ◽

Special Focus ◽

Consumer Expenditure ◽

Multilevel Regression ◽

Effective Measure ◽

Nutritional Status Of Children

SummaryThis study aimed to identify the determinants of nutritional status of children in India with a special focus on dietary diversity at the state level. Household-level consumption data from three rounds of the Consumer Expenditure Survey of the National Sample Survey Organization (1993–2012) were used. Information on the nutritional status of children was taken from the National Family Health Survey (2005–06). Dietary diversity indices were constructed at the state level to examine diversity in quantity of food consumed and food expenditure. Multilevel regression analysis was applied to examine the association of state-level dietary diversity and other socioeconomic factors with the nutritional status of children. It was observed that significant variation in childhood stunting, wasting and underweight could be explained by community- and state-level factors. The results indicate that dietary diversity has increased in India over time, and that dietary diversity at the state level is significantly associated with the nutritional status of children. Moreover, percentage of households with a regular salaried income in a state, percentage of educated mothers and mothers receiving antenatal care in a community are important factors for improving the nutritional status of children. Diversity in complementary child feeding is another significant determinant of nutritional status of children. The study thus concludes that increasing dietary diversity at the state level is an effective measure to reduce childhood malnutrition in India.

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