scholarly journals Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo Libotte ◽  
Lucas Anjos ◽  
Regina Célia Cerqueira de Almeida ◽  
Sandra Mara Malta ◽  
Roberto Medronho
Keyword(s):  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
The State ◽  
National Council ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Modelling Study

Abstract Background: In Brazil, vaccination has always been cutting across party political and ideological lines, which have delayed its start and brought the whole process into disrepute. Such divergences put the immunisation of the population in the background and create additional hurdles beyond the pandemic, mistrust and scepticism over vaccines.Methods: We conduct a mathematical modelling study to analyse the impacts of late vaccination and with slowly increasing coverage, as well as how harmful it would be if part of the population refused to get vaccinated or missed the second dose. We analyse data from confirmed cases, deaths caused by COVID-19, and vaccination in the state of Rio de Janeiro in the period between March 10, 2020, and October 27, 2021. The classical SIR model is extended to consider the effect of vaccination (efficacy, interval between doses, and vaccination rate) and data sets are regularised using Gaussian Process Regression. The model parameter distributions are estimated using Bayesian inference, aiming to obtain credible intervals in the simulations.Findings: We estimate that if the start of vaccination had been 30 days earlier, combined with efforts to drive vaccination rates up, 31,657 (25,801–35,117) deaths could have been averted. Our results also indicate that the slow pace of vaccination and the low demand for the second dose could cause a resurgence of cases as early as 2022.Interpretation: The government's inaction and lack of a strategic plan to fight the pandemic meant that vaccination started late, leading to thousands of deaths that could have been prevented. Even when reaching the expected vaccination coverage for the first dose, it is still challenging to increase adherence to the second dose and maintain a high vaccination rate to avoid new outbreaks.Funding: Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Supporting Research in the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) and Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).

scholarly journals A modelling study on the vaccination against COVID-19 in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo Libotte ◽  
Lucas Anjos ◽  
Regina Célia Almeida ◽  
Sandra Mara Malta ◽  
Roberto Medronho
Keyword(s):  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
The State ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Slow Pace ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Modelling Study

Abstract The long-awaited roll-out of vaccination programmes against COVID-19 from across the globe has fuelled hope for a reduction in the incidence of cases and deaths, as well as the resumption of economic and social activities. Despite being the most effective measure to mitigate the pandemic, especially in regions where non-pharmaceutical interventions had been ineffective, many people suffered from the lack of efforts by government officials to conduct vaccination. In Brazil, vaccination has always been cutting across party political and ideological lines, which have delayed the start of vaccination and brought the whole process into disrepute. Such disputes put the immunisation of the population in the background and create additional hurdles beyond the pandemic, mistrust and scepticism over vaccines. We conduct a mathematical modelling study to analyse the impacts of late vaccination and with slowly increasing coverage, as well as how harmful it would be if part of the population refused to get vaccinated or missed the second dose in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The general framework we propose can be extended to analyse the epidemic situation in any region. Our results indicate that if the start of vaccination had been 30 days earlier, combined with efforts to drive vaccination rates up, about 18,000 deaths could have been averted. Furthermore, the slow pace of vaccination and the low demand for the second dose could cause a resurgence of cases as early as 2022.

scholarly journals A SEMIOSFERA DA CIDADE DE SALVADOR COMO MODELO DE SEMIÓTICA DA CULTURA/ REPRESENTATIONS OF SALVADOR IN CONTEMPORARY BRAZILIAN LITERATURE: FOR A MODEL OF URBAN GEOPOETICS

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lícia Soares de SOUZA
Keyword(s):  
Urban Space ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
National Council ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Porto Alegre ◽  
Brazilian Literature ◽  
Cultural Mobility

Resumo: Este texto mostra as bases de um projeto apresentado ao CNPQ para renovação de bolsa de produtividade em pesquisa. O objetivo é o de analisar formações geopoéticas (R. BOUVET) de uma série de narrativas romanescas ambientadas na cidade de Salvador, suscetíveis de construir uma memória longa, com base na recuperação de linguagens oriundas de blocos memoriais em circulação na semiosfera (I. LOTMAN) urbana da Bahia. Nesse sentido, busca-se compor um corpus de romances, produzidos a partir dos anos 1980 até os dias atuais que tenham a cidade de Salvador como cenário. Pensa-se em proceder ao levantamento e à averiguação de obras que inscrevam o espaço urbano soteropolitano na rede estética nacional, que reflete as grandes contradições de uma modernização que insiste na exclusão social, onde já existem exemplos representando outras metrópoles como Rio de Janeiro, Recife, São Paulo, Porto Alegre, entre outras. No presente texto, a ênfase é posta na obra de Inês Pedrosa, A eternidade e o desejo (2008) que põe em confronto espaços de violência da cidade antiga e da cidade moderna, vista através dos sermões do padre Antônio Vieira. Quer-se flagrar o trabalho de mobilidade cultural apto a manifestar as transformações que ocorrem nos espaços urbanos soteropolitanos. Palavras chave: Geopoética urbana. Salvador. Memória longa. Semiosfera. Mobilidade cultural. Inês Pedrosa. Abstract: This text depicts the basis of a project presented to CNPQ- National Council for Scientific ant Technological Development- in order to renew research financing. Its aim is to analyse poetical formations (R. BOUVET) in narrative series in the city Salvador. These series can build a long memory dealing with memorial blocs that circulate in the urban semiosphery (I. LOTMAN) of Bahia. In this manner, we wish to compose a corpus of contemporary novels (from the 1980’ until now) with Salvador as scenary. We intend to investigate the works that show the big contradictions of modernization that insist on keeping social exclusions as depicted in others novels of Rio de Janeiro, Recife, São Paulo and Porto Alegre. In this text, we will emphasize one work of Inês Pedrosa, A eternidade e o desejo (2008), that confronts violent spaces in the old and the modern city that are described through Antonio Vieira’s sermons. We want to catch the work of cultural mobility that is able to manifest the transformations going on in urban space of Salvador. Key Words: Urban geopoetic. Salvador. Long memory. Semiosphery. Cultural mobility. Inês Pedrosa.

scholarly journals How Large Fraction of A Population Must be Vaccinated before A Disease is Controlled?

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Halamicek ◽  
Dirk W Schubert ◽  
Fritjof Nilsson
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Vaccine Dose ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Basic Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Mathematical Equation ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Crucial Question ◽  
Modelling Study

Abstract The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has already caused more than 5 million casualties despite hard restrictions and relatively high vaccine coverage in many countries. The crucial question is therefore, how large vaccination rate and how severe restrictions are required to terminate the spread of the decease, assuming that the vaccine efficiency and the basic reproduction ratio (R0) are known? To answer this question, a mathematical equation was applied to visualize the required vaccination level as function of vaccine efficiency, restriction efficiency and basic reproduction ratio (R0). In addition to the modelling study, Covid-19 data from Europe was collected during 19/11-26/11 (2021) to assess the relation between vaccination rate and incidence. The analysis indicates that a vaccination rate of ~92% (2 doses) is required to stop Delta (B.1.617.2) without severe restrictions, under conditions like those in Europe late November 2021. A third vaccine dose, improved vaccines, higher vaccination rates and/or stronger restrictions will be required to force Omicron (B.1.1.529) to expire without infecting a large fraction of the population.

scholarly journals Plasmodium simiumcausing human malaria: a zoonosis with outbreak potential in the Rio de Janeiro Brazilian Atlantic forest

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrícia Brasil ◽  
Mariano Gustavo Zalis ◽  
Anielle de Pina-Costa ◽  
Andre Machado Siqueira ◽  
Cesare Bianco Júnior ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mitochondrial Genome ◽  
Atlantic Forest ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Malaria Parasite ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Zoonotic Transmission ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
National Council ◽  
Forest Region ◽  
Human Primate

SummaryBackgroundMalaria was eliminated from Southern and Southeastern Brazil over 50 years ago. However, an increasing number of autochthonous episodes attributed toPlasmodium vivaxhave been recently reported in the Atlantic forest region of Rio de Janeiro State.As P. vivax-like non-human primate malaria parasite speciesPlasmodium simiumis locally enzootic, we performed a molecular epidemiological investigation in order to determine whether zoonotic malaria transmission is occurring.MethodsBlood samples of humans presenting signs and/or symptoms suggestive of malaria as well as from local howler-monkeys were examined by microscopy and PCR. Additionally, a molecular assay based on sequencing of the parasite mitochondrial genome was developed to distinguish betweenP. vivaxandP. simium, and applied to 33 cases from outbreaks occurred in 2015 and 2016.ResultsOf 28 samples for which the assay was successfully performed, all were shown to beP. simium, indicating the zoonotic transmission of this species to humans in this region. Sequencing of the whole mitochondrial genome of three of these cases showed thatP. simiumis most closely related toP. vivaxparasites from South American.FindingsThe explored malaria outbreaks were caused byP. simium, previously considered a monkey-specific malaria parasite, related to but distinct fromP. vivax, and which has never conclusively been shown to infect humans before.InterpretationThis unequivocal demonstration of zoonotic transmission, 50 years after the only previous report ofP. simiumin man, leads to the possibility that this parasite has always infected humans in this region, but that it has been consistently misdiagnosed asP. vivaxdue to a lack of molecular typing techniques. Thorough screening of the local non-human primate and anophelines is required to evaluate the extent of this newly recognized zoonotic threat to public health and malaria eradication in Brazil.FundingFundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Rio de Janeiro (Faperj), The Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), JSPS Grant-in-Aid for scientific research, Secretary for Health Surveillance (SVS) of the Ministry of Health, Global Fund, and PRONEX Program of the CNPq.

scholarly journals Regional support in the health regions of Rio de Janeiro state: a strategy for strengthening SUS

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
L M Cabral ◽  
A M Peres ◽  
P H Rodrigues ◽  
M Caldas ◽  
M Magalhães ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Services ◽  
Health System ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Municipal Government ◽  
Regional Governance ◽  
The State ◽  
Federal State ◽  
National Council ◽  
Health Departments ◽  
Municipal Health

Abstract Brazil is one of the few countries in the world with more than 200 million inhabitants that has a universal public health system. In its 30 years of existence, the Unified Health System (SUS) has brought many advances to the Brazilian society. However, it still faces challenges to ensure health services in quantity and quality to the entire population. Federal, state and municipal government levels share the responsibility for its management and financing. In this governance scheme, it is the Municipal Health Secretariats (MHS) of the 5,596 Brazilian municipalities that are primarily responsible for providing and managing health services. Given the importance of this responsibility, Councils of Municipal Health Departments (COSEMS) and the National Council of Municipal Health Departments (CONASEMS) were created in 1986. Their role is to promote the articulation and negotiation of their interests with the federal and state levels. In Rio de Janeiro, a team of specialized professionals has been providing support for COSEMS-RJ since 2012. The team carries out activities in the nine regions of the state, which has 92 municipalities and more than 16 million inhabitants, the 3rd largest population in Brazil. Its activities are maintained by CONASEMS, the Ministry of Health and the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ). The objetive of this report is to present the experience of the expert team of COSEMS RJ as a strategy for strengthening regional governance and intergovernmental relations. Providing specialized technical support for MHS has improved local management of SUS and has allowed for the establishment of regionalized health care networks in Rio de Janeiro. Key messages The project improves the participation of municipal managers and teams in regional spaces. It strengthens their capacity for intergovernamental decision-making and regionalization of the health system. The project qualifies the municipal management for fundraising, knowledge building, policy implementing and monitoring, as well as participatory planning.

scholarly journals Public Governance and Intellectual Property Management in Research Funding Agencies

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 233-245
Author(s):  
Josenito Oliveira Santos ◽  
José Ricardo de Santana ◽  
Cleide Mara Barbosa da Cruz ◽  
Anderson Rosa da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Intellectual Property ◽  
International Development ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
The State ◽  
The Other ◽  
National Council ◽  
Research Support ◽  
Industrial Property ◽  
Joint Ownership ◽  
Development Agencies

This article aims to analyze the position of the Research Support Foundations (FAPs) regarding the obligation of co-ownership in patent deposits, arising from financial support promoted by them. To this end, a search was proposed in the database of the National Institute of Industrial Property – INPI for FAPs and federal development agencies. For the search of international development agencies, the Orbit Intelligence database was used. The results of this study show that the Foundation for Research Support of the State of Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) remains the holder with 522 deposits, followed by the Foundation for Research Support of the State of São Paulo (FAPESP) with 275 deposits and the other FAPs with rare cases. Although the three federal agencies do not require joint ownership, 522 deposits with joint ownership by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and 27 deposits with joint ownership by the Financier of Studies and Projects (FINEP) were found, however, no deposit was found on behalf of the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES). And among the 4 main countries analyzed, France is the only one in which there is a concentration of ownership in a central development agency, this can be explained by the fact that France's Intellectual Property Policy makes this type of requirement. In the other countries surveyed, there is no such requirement for participation in co-ownership of patent deposits. In interviews with managers of the FAPs, it was evident that a percentage of them claim that the arguments for participation or not show advantages, and from the point of view of those who do not defend participation, pointing out disadvantages.

Integração local da população refugiada no estado do Rio de Janeiro:

Revista Prumo ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 42-53
Author(s):  
Ariane Rego de Paiva ◽  
Roberta Gomes Thomé
Keyword(s):  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
The State ◽  
Refugee Population ◽  
Local Integration

This work presents a problematization about the local integration of refugees as one of the lasting solutions proposed by the UNHCR and the present challenges for the consolidation of policies of social protection for this segment in the state of Rio de Janeiro. This study was made through the bibliographic analisis and systematization of a workshop about the thematics carried with governamental and non-governamental agents and leaderships in the refugee population in the occasion of the seminar Mobility Crossroads: knowledge and practices in protection policies for refugee populations and migrants in vulnerable situation, which occurred in November 2017, organized by Cátedra Sérgio Vieira de Mello of PUC-Rio.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽  
Eduardo Massad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. Methods We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. Results The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. Conclusions Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

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