Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel den Elzen ◽  
Ioannis Dafnomilis ◽  
Nicklas Forsell ◽  
Panagiotis Fragkos ◽  
Kostas Fragkiadakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Macroeconomic Impacts ◽  
Additional Reduction ◽  
Total Impact ◽  
Structural Shifts

Abstract By September 2021, 120 countries had submitted new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC in the context of the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.7 GtCO2e, compared to the previously submitted NDCs. This increases to about 4.1 GtCO2e, if also the lower projected emissions of the other countries are included. However, this total reduction needs to be four times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even eight times greater for 1.5 °C. Seven G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.1 GtCO2e, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies, while structural shifts occur away from fossil fuel supply sectors and towards renewable electricity. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2e, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

Determining Impacts of NDC Enhancement on Country-Level Emissions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taryn Fransen ◽  
Mengpin Ge ◽  
Tina Huang
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Ghg Reduction ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

This technical note describes a method for determining whether and to what extent Parties to the Paris Agreement have enhanced their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with respect to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We estimate each Party’s target-year GHG emissions under its previous NDC (typically First NDC) and under its subsequent NDC (typically Updated First NDC or Second NDC). On this basis, we determine whether the subsequent NDC reduces emissions relative to the previous NDC and—where possible—by how much. We outline approaches for NDCs with GHG reduction targets and with non-GHG targets and policies.

scholarly journals Who Is Responsible for Embodied CO2?

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Hans Sanderson
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Life Cycle Analysis ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Total Emission ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

With the Paris Agreement, countries are obliged to report greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, which will ensure that the global temperature increase is maintained well below 2 °C. The parties will report their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in terms of plans and progress towards these targets during the postponed COP26 (Conference of the Parties under the UNFCCC) in Glasgow in November 2021. These commitments, however, do not take significant portions of the consumption-related emissions related to countries imports into account. Similarly, the majority of companies that report their emissions to CDP (Formerly Carbon Disclosure Project) also do not account for their embodied value-chain-related emissions. Municipalities, on the path towards carbon neutrality in accordance with the methods outlined by C40, also do not include imported and embodied CO2 in their total emission tallies. So, who is responsible for these emissions—the producer or the consumer? How can we ensure that the NDCs, municipalities’ and companies’ reduction targets share the responsibility of the emissions in the value chain, thus ensuring that targets and plans become sustainable, climate fair, and just in global value chains? Today the responsibility lays with the producer, which is not sustainable. We have the outline for the tools needed to quantify and transparently share the responsibility between producers and consumers at corporate, municipal and national levels based on an improved understanding of the attendant sources, causes, flows and risks of GHG emissions globally. Hybrid life cycle analysis/environmentally extended input–output (LCA/EEIO) models can for example be further developed. This will, in the end, enable everyday consumption to support a more sustainable, green and low carbon transition of our economy.

scholarly journals Who is Responsible for Embodied CO2?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Sanderson
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
National Level ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Hybrid Lca ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

With the Paris Agreement, countries are obliged to report greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduc-tions, which will ensure that the global temperature increase is maintained well below 2C. The Parties will report their Nationally Determined Contributions in terms of plans and progress to-wards these targets during the postponed COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021. These commit-ments however do not take significant portions of the consumption related emissions related to countries imports in to account. Similarly, the majority of companies that report their emissions to CDP also do not account for their embodied value-chain related emissions. Municipalities, on the path towards carbon neutrality in accordance with the methods outlined by C40, also do not in-clude imported and embodied CO2e in their total emission tallies. So, who is responsible for these emissions - the producer or the consumer? How can we ensure that the NDC's, municipalities and companies reduction targets share the responsibility of the emissions in the value-chain thus en-suring that targets and plans become, sustainable, climate fair, and just in global value chains? Today the responsibility lays with the producer, which is not sustainable. We have the outline for the tools needed to quantify and transparently share the responsibility between producers and consumers at corporate, municipal and national level based on an improved understanding of the attendant sources, causes, flows and risks og GHG emissions globally. Hybrid LCA/EEIO models can for example be further developed. This will, in the end, enable everyday consumption to support a more sustainable, green and low carbon transition of our economy.

scholarly journals Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Jones ◽  
Miquel Muñoz Cabré ◽  
Georgia Piggot ◽  
Michael Lazarus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Fuel Production ◽  
Fuel Supply ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
First Time

The need for a managed transition away from fossil fuel production raises the question of whether and how countries are addressing this need in their national communications to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A previous 2019 analysis of the first round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term, low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) found that few countries discussed how they would address fossil fuel production as part of their climate mitigation activities. Here, we examine new and updated NDCs and LT-LEDS, finding a growing number of NDCs and LT-LEDS that address fossil fuel production as part of mitigation. For the first time, several countries incorporate policies and/ or pathways for a managed decline of fossil fuel production. In contrast, many others foresee continued or expanded fossil fuel production, with no mention of efforts to prepare for a transition. Opportunities remain for countries to make better use of NDCs and LT-LEDS to align fossil fuel production with the Paris Agreement, including by more comprehensively reflecting on the equity implications of their plans, as well as addressing how countries plan to diversify their economies, ensure a just transition for workers, and cooperate internationally on a managed wind-down of fossil fuel supply. As COP26 approaches, this window of opportunity is still open, but it is rapidly closing.

Subsistence protection and mitigation ambition: Necessities, economic and climatic

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Shue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
Reference Framework ◽  
Control Climate ◽  
Normative Evaluation ◽  
Political Struggles ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

The distinction between subsistence emissions and luxury emissions was originally devised in 1992 to guard people so poor as to be able to afford only fossil fuels from being priced out of energy by market mechanisms like cap-and-trade that were proposed to assist with limiting climate change. Non-carbon energy can now be made as affordable and accessible as fossil fuel, but tensions remain between measures to support sustainable development and measures to control climate change. Consequently, the distinction between subsistence energy and luxury energy continues to be surprisingly relevant to current international political struggles. The most fully justified method for normative assessment of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, the Climate Equity Reference Framework, presupposes the distinction. Normative evaluation of the choice between maximally ambitious ratcheting-up of Nationally Determined Contributions in the immediate future and lazy reliance upon hoped-for carbon dioxide removal in future decades depends on it.

GHG EMISSIONS EVALUATION FROM FOSSIL FUEL WITH CCS

2009 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristian Dinca ◽  
Adrian-Alexandru Badea ◽  
Tiberiu Apostol ◽  
Gheorghe Lazaroiu
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Ghg Emissions

scholarly journals Climate Change: Reversing the Past and Advancing the Future

AJIL Unbound ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 115 ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
Daniel Bodansky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Global Institutions ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
Global Action ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Executive Action

After four years of not simply inaction but significant retrogression in U.S. climate change policy, the Biden administration has its work cut out. As a start, it needs to undo what Trump did. The Biden administration took a step in that direction on Day 1 by rejoining the Paris Agreement. But simply restoring the pre-Trump status quo ante is not enough. The United States also needs to push for more ambitious global action. In part, this will require strengthening parties’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement; but it will also require actions by what Sue Biniaz, the former State Department climate change lawyer, likes to call the Greater Metropolitan Paris Agreement—that is, the array of other international actors that help advance the Paris Agreement's goals, including global institutions such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Montreal Protocol, and the World Bank, as well as regional organizations and non-state actors. Although the Biden administration can pursue some of these international initiatives directly through executive action, new regulatory initiatives will face an uncertain fate in the Supreme Court. So how much the Biden Administration is able to achieve will likely depend significantly on how much a nearly evenly-divided Congress is willing to support.

scholarly journals Natural climate solutions for Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (23) ◽  
pp. eabd6034
Author(s):  
C. Ronnie Drever ◽  
Susan C. Cook-Patton ◽  
Fardausi Akhter ◽  
Pascal H. Badiou ◽  
Gail L. Chmura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cover Crops ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Soil Productivity ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Mitigation Potential ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Clean Air ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Alongside the steep reductions needed in fossil fuel emissions, natural climate solutions (NCS) represent readily deployable options that can contribute to Canada’s goals for emission reductions. We estimate the mitigation potential of 24 NCS related to the protection, management, and restoration of natural systems that can also deliver numerous co-benefits, such as enhanced soil productivity, clean air and water, and biodiversity conservation. NCS can provide up to 78.2 (41.0 to 115.1) Tg CO2e/year (95% CI) of mitigation annually in 2030 and 394.4 (173.2 to 612.4) Tg CO2e cumulatively between 2021 and 2030, with 34% available at ≤CAD 50/Mg CO2e. Avoided conversion of grassland, avoided peatland disturbance, cover crops, and improved forest management offer the largest mitigation opportunities. The mitigation identified here represents an important potential contribution to the Paris Agreement, such that NCS combined with existing mitigation plans could help Canada to meet or exceed its climate goals.

Can Sustainable Ammonia Synthesis Pathways Compete with Fossil-fuel Based Haber-Bosch Processes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miao Wang ◽  
M. A. Khan ◽  
Imtinan Mohsin ◽  
Joshua Wicks ◽  
Alexander H. Ip ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Ammonia Synthesis ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Fuels And Chemicals ◽  
Alternative Routes ◽  
Sustainable Fuels

As renewable electricity prices continue to diminish, interest grows in alternative routes for the synthesis of sustainable fuels and chemicals, including ammonia. Considering demand for fertilizers, as well as for...

Soil respiration under different agricultural land use types in Croatia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darija Bilandžija ◽  
Marija Galić ◽  
Željka Zgorelec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Respiration ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Energy Crop ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates

<p>In order to mitigate climate change and reduce the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Kyoto protocol has been adopted in 1997 and the Paris Agreement entered into force in 2016. The Paris Agreement have ratified 190 out of 197 Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Croatia is one of them as well. Each Party has obliged regularly to submit the national inventory report (NIR) providing the information on the national anthropogenic GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks to the UNFCCC. Reporting under the NIR is divided into six categories / sectors, and one of them is land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, where an issue of uncertainty estimates on carbon emissions and removals occurs. As soil respiration represents the second-largest terrestrial carbon flux, the national studies on soil respiration can reduce the uncertainty and improve the estimation of country-level carbon fluxes. Due to the omission of national data, the members of the University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Department of General Agronomy have started to study soil respiration rates in 2012, and since then many different studies on soil respiration under different agricultural land uses (i.e. annual crops, energy crop and vineyard), management practices (i.e. tillage and fertilization) and climate conditions (i.e. continental and mediterranean) in Croatia have been conducted. The obtained site specific results on field measurements of soil carbon dioxide concentrations by <em>in situ</em> closed static chamber method will be presented in this paper.</p>

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