scholarly journals Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Jones ◽  
Miquel Muñoz Cabré ◽  
Georgia Piggot ◽  
Michael Lazarus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Fuel Production ◽  
Fuel Supply ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
First Time

The need for a managed transition away from fossil fuel production raises the question of whether and how countries are addressing this need in their national communications to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A previous 2019 analysis of the first round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term, low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) found that few countries discussed how they would address fossil fuel production as part of their climate mitigation activities. Here, we examine new and updated NDCs and LT-LEDS, finding a growing number of NDCs and LT-LEDS that address fossil fuel production as part of mitigation. For the first time, several countries incorporate policies and/ or pathways for a managed decline of fossil fuel production. In contrast, many others foresee continued or expanded fossil fuel production, with no mention of efforts to prepare for a transition. Opportunities remain for countries to make better use of NDCs and LT-LEDS to align fossil fuel production with the Paris Agreement, including by more comprehensively reflecting on the equity implications of their plans, as well as addressing how countries plan to diversify their economies, ensure a just transition for workers, and cooperate internationally on a managed wind-down of fossil fuel supply. As COP26 approaches, this window of opportunity is still open, but it is rapidly closing.

scholarly journals Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals

2021 ◽  
Vol 380 (2215) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Cain ◽  
Stuart Jenkins ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
John Lynch ◽  
David J. Frame ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Policies And Measures ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH 4 )-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH 4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO 2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO 2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH 4 emissions starts to reverse CH 4 -induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual ‘CO 2 -equivalent’ emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO 2 and CH 4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using ‘warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)’.

Subsistence protection and mitigation ambition: Necessities, economic and climatic

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Shue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
Reference Framework ◽  
Control Climate ◽  
Normative Evaluation ◽  
Political Struggles ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

The distinction between subsistence emissions and luxury emissions was originally devised in 1992 to guard people so poor as to be able to afford only fossil fuels from being priced out of energy by market mechanisms like cap-and-trade that were proposed to assist with limiting climate change. Non-carbon energy can now be made as affordable and accessible as fossil fuel, but tensions remain between measures to support sustainable development and measures to control climate change. Consequently, the distinction between subsistence energy and luxury energy continues to be surprisingly relevant to current international political struggles. The most fully justified method for normative assessment of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, the Climate Equity Reference Framework, presupposes the distinction. Normative evaluation of the choice between maximally ambitious ratcheting-up of Nationally Determined Contributions in the immediate future and lazy reliance upon hoped-for carbon dioxide removal in future decades depends on it.

scholarly journals HOW MUCH COULD ARTICLE 6 ENHANCE NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION AMBITION TOWARD PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS THROUGH ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY?

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150007
Author(s):  
JAMES EDMONDS ◽  
SHA YU ◽  
HAEWON MCJEON ◽  
DIRK FORRISTER ◽  
JOSEPH ALDY ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Efficiency Gains ◽  
Emissions Mitigation ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
The Cost

The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2∘C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by [Formula: see text]$[Formula: see text], which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO2/year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO2/year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.

scholarly journals Conference Diplomacy: The Making of the Paris Agreement

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 115-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aslak Brun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Inclusive Leadership ◽  
Clear Sense ◽  
Sense Of Direction ◽  
Over Time

The article offers an insider’s account of how the Paris Agreement on climate change was reached. Focusing on participation and ambition, it describes the efforts to include a long-term temperature goal, expectations for regular ratcheting up of climate efforts, and provisions for tracking global progress. The author argues that a shift from the earlier top-down approaches to setting targets, to a bottom-up, self-determined approach has spurred participation and made it easier to reach agreement. In addition, the Paris Agreement anchors a clearer direction of travel than before. The article also discusses the negotiations of the provisions in the Agreement to drive increased national climate mitigation efforts over time. Finally, the author considers the role of conference diplomacy, particularly the need for inclusive leadership. It is argued that the French Presidency combined a transparent negotiations process with a clear sense of direction that helped achieve a comprehensive and ambitious outcome. The role of back-channel talks as part of effective conference diplomacy is also discussed.

scholarly journals Climate Change: Reversing the Past and Advancing the Future

AJIL Unbound ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 115 ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
Daniel Bodansky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Global Institutions ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
Global Action ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Executive Action

After four years of not simply inaction but significant retrogression in U.S. climate change policy, the Biden administration has its work cut out. As a start, it needs to undo what Trump did. The Biden administration took a step in that direction on Day 1 by rejoining the Paris Agreement. But simply restoring the pre-Trump status quo ante is not enough. The United States also needs to push for more ambitious global action. In part, this will require strengthening parties’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement; but it will also require actions by what Sue Biniaz, the former State Department climate change lawyer, likes to call the Greater Metropolitan Paris Agreement—that is, the array of other international actors that help advance the Paris Agreement's goals, including global institutions such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Montreal Protocol, and the World Bank, as well as regional organizations and non-state actors. Although the Biden administration can pursue some of these international initiatives directly through executive action, new regulatory initiatives will face an uncertain fate in the Supreme Court. So how much the Biden Administration is able to achieve will likely depend significantly on how much a nearly evenly-divided Congress is willing to support.

scholarly journals KONSEP PERTANIAN PULAU-PULAU KECIL BERBASIS GUGUS PULAU MENGHADAPI PERUBAHAN IKLIM GLOBAL DI PROVINSI MALUKU

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Agustinus Kastanya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indigenous Rights ◽  
Agroforestry System ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Small Islands ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Concept Framework

Indonesia has already agreed to and submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the UNFCCC, to reduce emission gases by 29% on its own and by 41% with outside help by 2030. This step follows the Paris Agreement (COP 21) to reduce world emission gases to prevent the earth warming by 20C . Maluku is characterized by small islands, narrow and short watersheds and needs an innovative approach to development. Multi landscape based development of small islands means using island clusters, watersheds, ecological conditions and socio-economic conditions. An agricultural concept for small islands based on multi landscape plans like green economics has been developed in 3 base concepts : (1) conceptual framework; (2) macro concept framework; (3) micro concept framework. The multi landscape format integrates water catchments and RTRWP/K which are organized into the smallest management units in accordance with indigenous rights. The complete landscape is managed using an agroforestry system for conservation of the watersheds, islands, cluster groups and seas. Thus, the agricultural concept can deliver productivity and services to meet the needs of the community and the environment as well as for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change.

International Law Obligations Arising in relation to Nationally Determined Contributions

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benoit Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Law ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Legal Obligations ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
The One

AbstractThis article analyzes the international law obligations that arise in relation to nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It argues that distinct and concurrent obligations arise from two separate sources. On the one hand, treaty obligations arise under the Paris Agreement, which imposes an obligation of conduct on parties: they must take adequate measures towards the realization of the mitigation targets contained in their NDCs. On the other hand, communications such as NDCs may constitute unilateral declarations that also create legal obligations. These unilateral declarations impose obligations of various types, which may extend beyond mitigation. For example, they may specify measures of implementation or demand the achievement of a particular result. The potential ‘double-bindingness’ of NDCs should be a central consideration in the interpretation of international law obligations regarding climate change.

The Elusive Governance of Climate Change: Nationally Determined Contributions as Commitments and Negotiating Positions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Justin Leinaweaver ◽  
Robert Thomson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
The Political ◽  
Review System ◽  
Main Approach ◽  
National Policies ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
International Interactions ◽  
New Framework

Since the Paris Agreement of 2016, the international community’s main approach to addressing climate change is for states to determine their own commitments in a pledge and review system. Parties to the Paris Agreement formulate Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are documents that give details of their national policies and plans. They are free to formulate and present national policies as they choose, and as a result, there is substantial variation in the content and form of NDCs. This study presents a new framework for assessing and comparing the political meanings of these documents. The framework builds on two distinct ways in which NDCs can be understood. NDCs may be commitments to the international community and domestic actors. Alternatively, they may embody states’ negotiating positions in an ongoing process of national and international interactions. The framework consists of a set of thematic categories to which each sentence of these documents can be allocated. The application of this framework enables us to compare the political content of states’ NDCs systematically. The study demonstrates the validity of the framework by correlating its results with key characteristics of states. The findings also provide evidence for the two distinct perspectives on these documents.

scholarly journals Coal, Climate Justice, and the Cultural Politics of Energy Transition

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Brown ◽  
Samuel J. Spiegel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Politics ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Justice ◽  
The World ◽  
Phase Out ◽  
Development Agendas

In the wake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, promises to phase out coal-fired power have suggested cause for optimism around energy transition globally. However, coal remains entangled with contentious development agendas in many parts of the world, while fossil fuel industries continue to flourish. This article discusses these entanglements through a climate justice lens that engages the cultural politics surrounding coal and energy transition. We highlight how recent struggles around phasing out coal have stimulated renewed critical debates around colonialism, empire, and capitalism more broadly, recognizing climate change as an intersectional issue encompassing racial, gender, and economic justice. With social movements locked in struggles to resist the development or expansion of coal mines, power plants, and associated infrastructure, we unpack tensions that emerge as transnational alliances connect disparate communities across the world. Our conclusion signals the need for greater critical engagement with how intersecting inequalities are coded into the cultural politics of coal, and how this shapes efforts to pursue a just transition.

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