scholarly journals The Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Performance in Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isiaka Akande Raifu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Performance

Abstract This study is conducted to investigate the response of stock market returns to daily growth in COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in 14 African countries using both time series and panel approaches. The study employs three estimation methods, Ordinary Least Squares/Robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS/ORLS), Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) and Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR). While the OLS and POLS are used to examine a conditional mean effect of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths on stock market returns PVAR is used to estimate and trace the response of stock market return to shocks from daily growth in COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths. OLS results show that stock market returns react negatively and significantly to daily growth in COVID-19 confirmed cases in countries like Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, Tunisia and Uganda while the negative effects of daily growth in COVID-19 confirmed deaths on stock market returns are negligible. Evidence from POLS reveals that the impacts of an increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths are insignificant. This is corroborated by the results of FEVD. IRF results show that stock market returns react positively to COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths shocks before declining and returning towards normal returns in the long-run. Our findings underscore the importance of analysing individual country’s socioeconomic reaction to COVID-19 pandemic instead of pooling countries together.JEL Classification: I12, G1

scholarly journals Does Stock Market Respond to Disease Pandemic? A Case of COVID-19 in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-101
Author(s):  
Terver Theophilus Kumeka ◽  
Olabusuyi Rufus Falayi ◽  
Adeniyi Jimmy Adedokun
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Government ◽  
Canonical Cointegrating Regression

Abstract This paper investigates whether stock markets respond to disease pandemic referencing the case of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The paper employs three cointegrating regression models: Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, and Canonical Cointegrating Regression to analyse the effect of growth in total COVID-19 confirmed cases and related deaths in Nigeria and across the globe from 27 February 2020 to 4 September 2020 on the stock market performance. Key findings support the presence of long-run association between stock market returns and COVID-19 in Nigeria. The stock market is found to respond negatively to both domestic and global growths in total confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19. Consequently, affected businesses in Nigeria should be assisted and bailed out by the government through practices such as tax filing, subsidies, targeted spending, and credit.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatilities: evidence from selected emerging economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Rakshit ◽  
Yadawananda Neog
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Performance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate volatility, oil price return and COVID-19 cases on the stock market returns and volatility for selected emerging market economies. Additionally, this study compares the market performance in the emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic with the pre-COVID and global financial crisis (GFC) period. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the arbitrage pricing theory to model the risk-return relationship between the risk-based factors (exchange rate volatility and COVID-19 cases) and stock market returns. By applying the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, the study captures the asymmetric volatility spillover from the stock markets to foreign exchange markets and vice versa. Findings Findings reveal that exchange rate volatility exerts a negative and significant effect on the market returns in Brazil (BOVESPA), Chile (S&P CLX IPSA), India (SENSEX), Mexico (S&P BMV IPC) and Russia (MOEX) during the coronavirus pandemic. Regarding the effect of oil price returns, the authors find a positive relationship between oil price and stock market returns across all the economies in the study. The market returns of Russia, India, Brazil and Peru appeared more volatile during the pandemic than the GFC period. Practical implications As the exchange rate volatility is causing higher risk and uncertainty in the stock market’s performance, the central bank’s effort to maintain a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate sale can be proven crucial for the economies under consideration. Emphasized should also be given to boost investors’ confidence in the stock market, and for this, the government policy actions in reducing the transmission of the disease are the need of the hour. Originality/value While a large volume of literature on stock market performance in times of COVID-19 has emerged from developed economies, this study adds to the literature by exploring the emerging economies’ stock market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike previous literature, this study examines the volatility spillover between stock and exchange rate markets in the worst affected emerging economies during the crisis.

Stock Market Responses to Monetary and Fiscal Policies

2022 ◽  
pp. 266-282
Author(s):  
Elif Erer ◽  
Deniz Erer
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Hypothesis ◽  
Positive Effect

This study analyzes the short-run and long-run effects of interaction between fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance in four emerging Asian economies, which are China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia, by using ARDL model. The study covers the period of 2003:Q1-2020:Q1. The findings from this study show monetary and fiscal policies play an important role in determining stock market returns. Also, the results theoretically support Richardian neutrality hypothesis for China and Indonesia, Keynesian positive effect hypothesis for India, and classical crowding out effect hypothesis for Malaysia, and interest channel of monetary transmission mechanism only for China.

scholarly journals Reaction of stock market returns to COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown policy: evidence from Nigerian firms stock returns

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isiaka Akande Raifu ◽  
Terver Theophilus Kumeka ◽  
Alarudeen Aminu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Shocks

AbstractGiven the effects COVID-19 pandemic on the financial sectors across the world, this study examined the reaction of stock returns of 201 firms listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange to the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown policy. We deployed both Pooled OLS and Panel VAR as estimation methods. Generally, the results from POLS show the stock market returns of the Nigerian firms reacted negatively more to the global COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths than the domestic COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and lockdown policy. The results of the impulse response functions revealed that the effects of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and lockdown policy shocks on stock returns oscillate between negative and positive before the stock market returns converge to the equilibrium in the long run. The FEVD results showed that growth in the COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths and lockdown policy shocks explained little variations in stock market returns. Given our finding, we advocate for the relaxation of policy of lockdown and the combine use of monetary and fiscal policies to mitigate the negative effect of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns in Nigeria.

scholarly journals US Economic Policy Uncertainty and GCC Stock Market Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 223-242
Author(s):  
Saeed Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Economy Policy

AbstractThe study evaluates the effect of economy policy uncertainty of US on gulf cooperation council (GCC) countries’ stock market returns. The GCC countries are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. Granger Causality Tests (GCT) was done primarily to evaluate if economy policy uncertainty granger cause on GCC stock market returns. The analysis established that oil prices granger cause stock market returns for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE; the same is not true on changes in economic policy uncertainty of US cause on the stock market returns. Changes in economy policy uncertainty in US granger causes on stock market returns of Bahrain. On the other hand, economy policy uncertainty in US does not cause stock market returns in Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis establishes that economy policy uncertainty in US negatively responds to the stock market returns of the GCC countries.

The Impact of US Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock on GCC Stock Market Performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Alqahtani ◽  
Michael Taillard
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the impact of the United States’ Economy Policy Uncertainty (US EPU) shocks on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ stock market returns which are heavily related through global oil markets. Using monthly data spanning from 31/01/2010 to 31/08/2018, we employ a Non-Structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Granger Causality Tests (VGCT) in order to ascertain the magnitude of transmitted shocks and to primarily evaluate if US EPU affects stock market returns in any of the GCC countries. Our OLS and VAR results suggest that US EPU has little impact on the GCC markets with the exception of Bahrain. The Vector Granger Causality Test confirms that changes in US EPU influence returns on Qatar’s stock market. These results will help GCC nations to stabilize global energy markets and prevent economic ripples to policy shocks.

scholarly journals The Early Impact of Government Financial Intervention Policies and Cultural Secrecy on Stock Market Returns During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Developing Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 401
Author(s):  
Fouad Jamaani ◽  
Manal Alidarous ◽  
Abdullah Al-Awadh
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Stock Market Returns

This paper examines the role of government financial intervention policies and cultural secrecy on equity market returns during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in developing countries’ stock markets. We employ global data including 939 observations across 32 developing countries (23 emerging and 9 frontier stock markets) from December 1 to April 28, 2020. Our results show that the above-mentioned policies that set out to curb the COVID-19 pandemic succeed in increasing equity returns. It reflects investors’ improved perceptions of governments’ commitment to stabilizing the economy during the pandemic in developing, emerging, and frontier equity markets. Results show that investors in all equity markets discount differences in cultural secrecy in processing market information when investing in stock markets. We find that equity market investors in developing and emerging countries truly react negatively to the rise in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported. Yet, we find that COVID-19 wields no influence on equity market returns in frontier equity markets. This presents frontier equity markets as a safe-haven investment destination during a global health outbreak. Our work helps investors during such events to identify the best and worst investment destinations in developing, emerging, and frontier stock markets. At the same time, it is important to understand the critical roles of: firstly, the introduced government financial intervention policies; and secondly, the daily growth in reported COVID-19 cases on stock market returns.

scholarly journals NATURAL DISASTERS — BLESSINGS IN DISGUISE?

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (01) ◽  
pp. 1640004 ◽  
Author(s):  
HARDJO KOERNIADI ◽  
CHANDRASEKHAR KRISHNAMURTI ◽  
ALIREZA TOURANI-RAD
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of natural disasters on stock market returns and on industries that are likely to be affected by such disasters. We find that different natural disasters have different effects on stock markets and industries. Our evidence suggests that while earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes could negatively affect market returns several weeks after the events, other disasters such as floods, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions have limited impact on stock markets. We also find that construction and materials industry is generally positively affected by natural disasters but non-life and travel industries are likely to suffer negative effects.

Determinants of FPI in Developed and Developing Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Singhania ◽  
Neha Saini
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Host Country ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Performance

The pattern of capital inflows in developed and developing economies are different because of dissimilar economic and political structures. From the point of view of host country, especially the developing countries, portfolio flows are considered to play a pivotal role in bridging the saving investment gap and providing foreign exchange to finance current account deficit. While the investors of developed country invest in portfolios of different countries to diversify the risk and earn more returns, foreign portfolio investors generally go for short-term investment to reap the benefits of good economic conditions and they tend to withdraw their investments during the period of recession. This article identifies the determinants of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in developed and developing economies. Though the movement of capital among different countries is researched in depth by existing literature, the present study adds to literature by identifying the institutional factor involving freedom index. The institutional factors aid in identifying the determinants of FPI among select developed and developing countries. This study seeks to answer, where the funds of foreign portfolio investors are headed. And also the reasons of attractiveness for FPI among different sets of countries. The sample of the study is limited to a set of 19 developed and developing counties for the period of 10 years (2004–2013). We study the determinants of FPI for a group of developed and developing countries using fixed and random effects. Additionally, we use panel generalized method of moments (GMM) suggested by Arellano and Bond (1991, The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297). This methodology is suitable to remove the problem of endogeneity which static model is not able to capture. The results of model also incorporates persistence effect considering lagged value of dependent variable. The study empirically tests the various factors that determine the inflows of FPI and analyses their performance during different stages of the economic cycle in the last 10 years. Implicitly, in case of developed countries, it was observed that interest rate differential, trade openness, host country stock market performance and US stock market returns are significant trendsetter, while in developing countries, freedom index, interest rate differential, host country stock market performance, trade openness, US stock market returns and crisis period (2006–2008) significantly influence the inflow of FPIs. Dynamic model supports that as a group of 19 countries, portfolio investments are significantly influenced by interest rate differentials, freedom index, US stock market and host country stock market returns.

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