Potential Output and Output Gap: Some Estimates for France (in French)

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustapha Baghli ◽  
Carine Bouthevillain ◽  
Olivier de Bandt ◽  
Henri Fraisse ◽  
Hervé le Bihan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Output Gap ◽  
Potential Output

DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Mahpud Sujai
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
The State ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Budget Cycle ◽  
Actual Output ◽  
The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

scholarly journals Modelling Italian Potential Output and the Output Gap

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Bassanetti ◽  
Michele Caivano ◽  
Alberto Locarno
Keyword(s):  
Output Gap ◽  
Potential Output

scholarly journals Estimating the Potential Output and Output Gap of Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Joseph Atta-Mensah ◽  
Sawuya Nakijoba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Time Trends ◽  
Linear Time ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Economic Information ◽  
Hp Filter ◽  
Output Gaps

This paper focuses on the estimation of the potential output of Ghana. Potential output or its derivative the output gap are not observable. However, “potential output” is a powerful conceptual tool that guides analysts and policymakers in gauging whether the current observed economic activity is sustainable and how much of it is greater than or less than potential. Based on Ghanaian GDP annual data from 1960 – 2017, the paper estimates potential output and output gaps using the following methodology: linear time trends, Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter trends, multivariate HP filter trends, and a production function model. The results show that estimates of the potential output and output gaps are model-dependent as estimates vary from one methodology to the other. The paper recommends that policymakers should not mechanically choose a model to estimate output gap. For the avoidance of costly policy mistakes, the choice of the model should be complemented with sound judgement based on a set of pertinent economic information.

scholarly journals Estimating the Output GAP for Lebanon: A Production Function methodology

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-83
Author(s):  
Latifa Ghalayini
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Potential Output Growth ◽  
Douglas Production Function

This paper estimates the output Gap for Lebanon to analyze the economic policy and to judge the stance of the economy. Therefore, a Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated for the period Q11998 to Q42015 and potential output calculated by substituting for potential levels of the factors in the estimated production function. The calculation of potential labor required the calculation of the NAIRU. This paper calculates therefore three types of NAIRU. The results of output gap calculations show that the Lebanese economy is working over its capacity and that it hits his limits. Furthermore, findings show that the labor market is characterized by high levels of NAIRU which restricted potential output growth. Therefore, any policy aiming to increase economic growth, while neglecting structural reforms will prove to be unsustainable.

scholarly journals Estimating the Output Gap for Saudi Arabia

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryadh M. Alkhareif ◽  
William A. Barnett ◽  
Nayef A. Alsadoun
Keyword(s):  
Output Growth ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Production Function Approach ◽  
Potential Gdp ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Potential Output Growth

The objective of this paper is to estimate annual potential output growth and the output gap for the Saudi economy over the period 1980 to 2015, looking at both total output and non-oil output. The focus on the latter is so that the progress in diversifying the economy might be examined and the possible impact of diversification on potential output might be measured. We use three methods for estimating potential output proposed in the macroeconomic literature. The methodologies include the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Kalman filter, and the production function approach. We compare the three over the entire sample and the last five years. Our findings suggest that the output gap (the difference between actual and potential output, as measured by real GDP) is positive on average over the entire period (i.e., actual output has on average exceeded potential); however, the gap has turned negative and has shrunk in recent years, as fiscal expenditures, particularly in infrastructure, have acted to better align actual and potential. Our analysis also indicated that growth in both potential GDP and total factor productivity have accelerated in the 2011-2015 period. In contrast, growth in these factors has slowed in many other countries, particularly the advanced economies. This better performance of the Saudi economy is possibly due to the development of a resilient financial sector in the Saudi economy.

scholarly journals ESTIMATING MALAYSIA’S OUTPUT GAP: HAVE WE CLOSED THE GAP?

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (03) ◽  
pp. 647-674
Author(s):  
NUR AIN SHAHRIER ◽  
CHUAH LAY LIAN
Keyword(s):  
Structural Models ◽  
Critical Assessment ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Analytical Work ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Future Potential

The concepts of potential output and output gap are central to the policymakers’ analytical work in providing guidance to policy decisions. This paper presents three different estimation approaches for the Malaysian economy, namely, the univariate, multivariate and structural models. While the multivariate and structural models are mainly underpinned by theory and captured the concept of potential output better, most policymakers still maintain a suite of models to preserve diversity. Diversity provides a greater scope for cross-checking the robustness of results. The paper attempts to contribute by first, providing a critical assessment of the different models in estimating potential output and the output gap, and, second, the usefulness of each models in terms of assessing the drivers of future potential output, predicting price trends and identifying sources of inflation in the economy.

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