scholarly journals Estimating the Output GAP for Lebanon: A Production Function methodology

Author(s):  
Latifa Ghalayini

This paper estimates the output Gap for Lebanon to analyze the economic policy and to judge the stance of the economy. Therefore, a Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated for the period Q11998 to Q42015 and potential output calculated by substituting for potential levels of the factors in the estimated production function. The calculation of potential labor required the calculation of the NAIRU. This paper calculates therefore three types of NAIRU. The results of output gap calculations show that the Lebanese economy is working over its capacity and that it hits his limits. Furthermore, findings show that the labor market is characterized by high levels of NAIRU which restricted potential output growth. Therefore, any policy aiming to increase economic growth, while neglecting structural reforms will prove to be unsustainable.

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryadh M. Alkhareif ◽  
William A. Barnett ◽  
Nayef A. Alsadoun

The objective of this paper is to estimate annual potential output growth and the output gap for the Saudi economy over the period 1980 to 2015, looking at both total output and non-oil output. The focus on the latter is so that the progress in diversifying the economy might be examined and the possible impact of diversification on potential output might be measured. We use three methods for estimating potential output proposed in the macroeconomic literature. The methodologies include the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Kalman filter, and the production function approach. We compare the three over the entire sample and the last five years. Our findings suggest that the output gap (the difference between actual and potential output, as measured by real GDP) is positive on average over the entire period (i.e., actual output has on average exceeded potential); however, the gap has turned negative and has shrunk in recent years, as fiscal expenditures, particularly in infrastructure, have acted to better align actual and potential. Our analysis also indicated that growth in both potential GDP and total factor productivity have accelerated in the 2011-2015 period. In contrast, growth in these factors has slowed in many other countries, particularly the advanced economies. This better performance of the Saudi economy is possibly due to the development of a resilient financial sector in the Saudi economy.


Policy Papers ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (43) ◽  
Author(s):  

Many countries around the globe, particularly the systemic advanced economies, face the challenge of closing output gaps and raising potential output growth. Addressing these challenges requires a package of macroeconomic, financial and structural policies that will boost both aggregate demand and aggregate supply, while closing the shortfall between demand and supply. Each element of this package is important and one cannot substitute for the other: easy monetary policy will not raise potential output just as structural reforms will not close the output gap. This report studies the impact on emerging markets and nonsystemic advanced economies from monetary policy actions in systemic advanced economies, with a look also at knock-on effects from the decline in world oil prices.


Author(s):  
Václav Adamec ◽  
Luboš Střelec

Analysis of economic cycle is of enormous importance for monitoring economic output and explaining price and wage inflation. It provides essential information for shaping economic and monetary policy of central authorities. Several methods are currently available to estimate potential output and output gap. In the current study, methods of Hodrick-Prescott filter and Cobb-Douglas production function were implemented to estimate potential output, which cannot be empirically observed. For the purpose of comparing the above methods, quarterly and annual time series of real GDP, labour and gross fixed capital starting in 1996 were used for estimation of the output gap. Relative contributions of labour, fixed capital formation and technology improvement factor towards growth of potential output were quantified for the studied series. The Cobb-Douglas production function appears to be superior to Hodrick-Prescott filter in providing quality estimates of potential output. Hodrick-Prescott filter allows estimation of potential output; nevertheless, it fails to identify components of cyclic behaviour of economic activity. Cobb-Douglas production function describes level of potential product assuming average utilization of production factors. A detailed analysis of components of economic growth in the observed period is provided.


2016 ◽  
pp. 5-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Mau

The paper deals with 2015 trends and challenges for social and economic policy in the nearest future. The analysis of global crisis includes: uneven developments in the leading advanced and emerging economies; new models of economic growth which look differently in different countries; prospects of globalization and challenges of ‘regional globalization’; currency configurations of the future; energy prices dynamics and its influence on political and economic prospects of particular states. Current challenges are discussed in the context of previous 30 years. Among the main topics on Russia, there are approaches to a new growth model, structural transformation (including import substitution issues), economic dynamics, budget and monetary outlines, social issues. The priorities of economic policy are also considered.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1928-1947
Author(s):  
Svitlana Shevelova ◽  
Svitlana Plaskon

Purpose Despite an increasing volume of literature focussed on foreign direct investment (FDI) in transition economies, there has been little research into FDI in Ukraine. The relationship between the inflows of FDI (IFDI) and absorptive capacity (AC) has been under-researched in the peripheral transition countries like Ukraine. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the appropriateness of the Ukrainian economy’s AC to attract IFDI and facilitate economic growth with a particular focus on AC factors, such as the potential of human resources to absorb innovation and benefit from research and development (R&D) expenditure. Design/methodology/approach This study presents a thoughtful research design: there is an analysis of the AC framework for justification and selection factors that allows a measurement of the potential of Ukraine’s AC to attract and exploit IFDI. The study uses data from 25 regions in Ukraine for the 1996–2015 period. To estimate the effects of IFDI on Ukrainian economic growth, a Cobb–Douglas production function is used. As an appropriate instrumentation technique for dynamic panel data, the Generalised Method of Moments is used to provide unbiased and efficient estimates of the results. The application of the interactive term in this study allows the authors to indicate the existence of complementarities between IFDI and human capital, in particular with higher education, that afford opportunity to absorb new technologies and benefit from IFDI. Findings The resulting model indicates that R&D expenditure benefited very significantly in evolving country’s innovation system due to economic growth. Physical and human capital has not been used effectively in Ukraine to facilitate economic growth and attract IFDI. The number of patents is not significant in all of the regression models. Moreover, IFDI in Ukraine for the 1996–2015 period did not significantly impact on economic growth. However, the AC of human capital, in particular those with a higher education, is relatively relevant to benefit from IFDI. Practical implications The findings have important implications for governmental policy, which should be based on improving the business climate, a strategy for digital development, innovation, migration, institutional and regional policies aimed at the achievement of country’s sustainable economic growth. The government should increase R&D expenditure as an important factor of gross domestic product growth and introduce grants, loans and other financial supports for encouraging students to continue university education. Originality/value The originality and value of this paper is empirical and methodological. The empirical results of this study enable a conclusion about the appropriate level of the country’s absorptive capability required to benefit from IFDI. The paper also contributes to the existing academic debate and proves that despite the well-established theoretical framework for the IFDI–AC economic impact context, a new theorisation is needed to explore the full complexity of the country’s explicit relationship between AC and IFDI. Future research should be focussed on examining not only groups of countries but also distinctly the country’s explicit relationship between AC and IFDI with the particular attention for the under-researched countries: the peripheral transition economies to discover new research niches for theory building. This study presents an original methodological approach with a careful justification of the theoretical framework for hypothesis development, an appropriate sample and an original application of seminal research methods based on the Cobb–Douglas production function. This study proves that the interactive term, which allows indication of the existence of complementarities between IFDI and other variables, is appropriate for measuring AC in countries with smaller amounts of IFDI.


2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (7) ◽  
pp. 1119-1134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malin Song ◽  
Qianjiao Xie

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of the green talent dividend on China’s economic growth and regional differences using a theoretical derivation of the Cobb–Douglas production function. Design/methodology/approach This study develops a measurement model with human capital based on Chinese inter-provincial panel data for 2001–2017, and analyzes the influences on economic growth of employees’ education level, per capita material capital, green labor participation rate and green jobs. The study explores the impact of the green talent dividend on regional economic growth for different regions. Findings Employees’ education level, per capita material capital, green labor participation rate and green jobs promote China’s economic growth. The dependency ratio hinders economic growth. The green labor participation rate impacts economic growth more than green jobs do. Furthermore, the scale of green talent in China and its dividend effect are regionally unbalanced. Therefore, to fully release the dividend of green talent, the green labor participation rate should be improved to promote the rational flow of talent among regions. Practical implications These findings shed light on the talent dividend, provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of relevant talent policies, and show that the demographic dividend can be transformed into the green talent dividend, which has practical significance for the sustainable development of China’s economy given its aging population. Originality/value This study provides a macro perspective on the green talent dividend’s impact on economic growth. The Cobb–Douglas production function in this study differs from the traditional micro perspective on green labor.


2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-207
Author(s):  
David Kiefer ◽  
Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz ◽  
Codrina Rada ◽  
Rudiger von Arnim

This paper contributes to the literature on secular stagnation by estimating a measure of potential output growth for the post-war US economy derived from a novel model specification that allows for the cyclical interactions between income distribution, represented by the trajectory of the labor share of income, and economic activity, as measured by capacity utilization. The results obtained show that potential output growth exhibits a gradual decline that predates the Great Recession and follows the downward trajectory of the labor share of income, thus suggesting the existence of an important long-run relationship between income distribution and output growth in the United States.


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