DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

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Modelling Elasticity of Non‑Oil Tax Revenues to Oil Price Changes: is There U‑Shaped Association? Evidence from Azerbaijan

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis ◽

10.11118/actaun201967030799 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 67 (3) ◽

pp. 799-810

Author(s):

Khatai Aliyev ◽

Altay Ismayilov ◽

Ilkin Gasimov

Keyword(s):

Income Tax ◽

Scientific Evidence ◽

Great Influence ◽

Policy Decision ◽

Threshold Level ◽

The State ◽

Oil Price ◽

State Budget ◽

Price Changes ◽

Tax Revenues

Oil price changes has a great influence on the behaviour of firms in oil exporting countries which displays itself in amount of non‑oil tax receipts of the state budget. Employing FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR cointegration methods for 2001Q1–2015Q4, the study aims to analyse how oil price changes affects non‑oil tax revenues in Azerbaijan. Empirical results altogether provide strong scientific evidence that there is U‑shaped causality from oil price changes to total non‑oil tax revenues , corporate income tax receipts and labour income tax payments , and inverse U‑shaped to non‑oil VAT revenues of the state budget. Results show that firms face with the trade‑off between “produce‑and‑sell” and “import‑and‑sell” as oil price rises. In case of higher price than the threshold level, companies prefer the latter choice. Research findings are highly useful for the public policy decision‑makers in resource rich economies.

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IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT DEBT ON FINANCIAL SECURITY OF UKRAINE

International scientific journal Internauka Series Economical Sciences ◽

10.25313/2520-2294-2020-11-6560 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Olena Pikaliuk ◽

◽

Dmitry Kovalenko ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Public Debt ◽

Positive Impact ◽

The State ◽

Financial Security ◽

State Budget ◽

The Public ◽

Debt Security ◽

The Stability ◽

The Impact

One of the main criteria for economic development is the size of the public debt and its dynamics. The article considers the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine. The views of scientists on the essence of public debt and financial security of the state are substantiated. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt of Ukraine for 2014-2019. It is proved that one of the main criteria for economic development is the size of public debt and its dynamics. State budget deficit, attracting and using loans to cover it have led to the formation and significant growth of public debt in Ukraine. The volume of public debt indicates an increase in the debt security of the state, which is a component of financial security. Therefore, the issue of the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine is becoming increasingly relevant. The constant growth and large amounts of debt make it necessary to study it, which will have a positive impact on economic processes that will ensure the stability of the financial system and enhance its security.

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The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Industry Stock Returns: Evidence from International Markets

Journal of Management Info ◽

10.31580/jmi.v5i1.26 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Elias Randjbaran ◽

Reza Tahmoorespour ◽

Marjan Rezvani ◽

Meysam Safari

Keyword(s):

Stock Returns ◽

Oil And Gas ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

The United States ◽

Oil Price ◽

Price Variation ◽

Price Changes ◽

Price Fluctuations ◽

Food And Beverage ◽

The Impact

This study investigates the impact of oil price variation on 14 industries in six markets, including Canada, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Panel weekly data were collected from June 1998 to December 2011. The results indicate that price fluctuations primarily affect the Oil and Gas as well as the Mining industries and have the least influence on the Food and Beverage industry. Furthermore, in three out of six of these countries (Canada, France, and the U.K.), oil price changes negatively affect the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industry. One possible reason for the negative relationship between oil price changes and the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industries in the above-mentioned countries is that the governments of these countries fund their healthcare systems. Portfolio managers and investors will find the results of this study useful because it enables adjusting portfolios based on knowledge of the industries that are impacted the most or the least by oil price fluctuations.

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The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies ◽

10.22610/jebs.v5i11.446 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 5 (11) ◽

pp. 730-739 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Pelin Ã–GE GÃœNEY

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Output Growth ◽

Oil Price ◽

Series Data ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Price Changes ◽

Asymmetric Effects ◽

Price Increases ◽

Causality Tests ◽

The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1â€“2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

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ISSUES OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STATE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN

Innovation in the economy ◽

10.26739/2181-9491-2021-7-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (7) ◽

pp. 4-19

Author(s):

Akmal Baltayevich Allakuliev ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

The State ◽

Rate Of Return ◽

State Budget ◽

Macroeconomic Shocks ◽

Dynamic Correlations ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

The article examines the interaction of the country's GDP with the state budget in the short and long term, the impact of the macro-fiscal mechanism on the country's economic growth on the example of Uzbekistan.The aim of the study is to identify dynamic correlations between the country's state budget expenditures and the economic growth of the macro-fiscal mechanism in the short and long term, as well as to analyze the approximation or rate of return of GDP and the state budget to equilibrium during various macroeconomic shocks. and hesitation.The scientific novelties of the research are:

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PROBLEMS OF UNBALANCED STATE BUDGET OF UKRAINE: ANALYSIS OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FACTORS OF BUDGET REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE

Young Scientist ◽

10.32839/2304-5809/2020-11-87-34 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (87) ◽

Author(s):

Oksana Zahidna ◽

◽

Vasylyna Ignatyshyna ◽

Uliana Skydan ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Foreign Trade ◽

The State ◽

Public Expenditures ◽

Present Stage ◽

State Budget ◽

Economic Relations ◽

Successful Solution ◽

The Social ◽

Social And Economic Development ◽

The Impact

A significant place in the social and economic development of each country belongs to the problems of the budget, because the budget belongs to the sphere of public life that directly affects the interests of all members of society. The budget of any country reflects the important economic, social and political problems of the state and each person in particular. At the same time, the successful solution of budget problems is possible only if a proper understanding of its essence, role and place in the system of economic relations. For any country, the state budget is the main link in the financial system. As part of this system, it combines the main financial categories: income and expenditure of the country, the tax system, public credit, public debt in their closest coexistence. The budget as a financial plan of public expenditures and sources of their coverage plays an important role in the activities of the state. It determines its capabilities and development priorities, its role and forms of implementation of the functions assigned to it. It is an effective regulator of that economy reflects the amount of financial resources required by the state, determines specific areas of use of funds, directs the financial activities of the state. The article analyzes and defines the essence of revenues and expenditures of the state budget. The state and dynamics of state budget revenues and budget expenditures are studied. A comparison of state budget revenues and expenditures was made and it was investigated that expenditures significantly exceed revenues, and therefore the state budget is in deficit. The factors of formation of revenues and expenditures of the state budget at the present stage are determined. The dynamics of GDP growth rates and state revenues are analyzed budget, as well as the impact of GDP on the state budget. The peculiarities of the influence of the foreign trade factor on the revenues and expenditures of the state budget are determined. The influence and shares of exports and imports in the state budget revenues are studied. The current problems of imbalance of the state budget and the causes of the state budget deficit are identified. Ways to balance revenues and expenditures at the present stage are proposed. The dynamics of indicators of export and import of Ukraine is analyzed. The problems of Ukraine 's foreign trade at the present stage are investigated and perspective directions of improvement of the existing state of the export – import policy of the state are determined.

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State Administration of Retirement Age in the terms of Budget Crisis

Upravlenie ◽

10.12737/21299 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 80-87

Author(s):

Соловьев ◽

A. Solovev

Keyword(s):

Pension System ◽

Demographic Factors ◽

The State ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Retirement Age ◽

Pension Policy ◽

State Budget ◽

Methodological Approaches ◽

State Pension ◽

The Impact

The aim of the study is to analyze the effect of age on the appointment of the state pension fiscal system in our country. The problem of rising of the retirement age in Russia is given a value that is far away from the traditional context of direct influence of demographic processes on the level of pensions, on the one hand, and adaptation of the pension system to changing demographic factors, on the other. In the article the pension system for the first time is considered as a multifactorial model that corrects the degree of dependence on the mutually complex of macroeconomic and demographic factors in the different historical periods. This requires a fundamental change in the methodological approaches to the problem of rising the retirement age by using actuarial methods of forecasting. Actuarial analysis of the problem of retirement age in the work shows that the perception of the linear dependence of the age of the destination state of the demographic parameters cannot be considered as a tool for regulating the efficiency of the pension system. The results of the study are the specific parameters of actuarial assessments of the impact of demographic and macroeconomic conditions to increase the retirement age in Russia, conducted using data from the state statistics, formulated practical proposals to mitigate negative economic consequences. Conclusion: Rising the retirement age should be aimed at economic stimulation of formation of the pension rights of the insured in the long term, rather than the economy of the state budget. Methodological approaches, grounded in the work, and quantitative results of the actuarial calculations will be used in the formation of public pension policy in the preparation of the regulations to rise the retirement age, the pension formula of calculating the pension rights of insured persons, the mechanism of pension indexation.

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The impact of oil price changes on efficiency of banks: An application in the Middle East oil exporting countries using SORM-DEA

RAIRO - Operations Research ◽

10.1051/ro/2019009 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 54 (3) ◽

pp. 719-748

Author(s):

Sepideh Kaffash ◽

Emel Aktas ◽

Mohammad Tajik

Keyword(s):

Middle Eastern ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Oil Price ◽

Special Focus ◽

Bank Efficiency ◽

Price Changes ◽

Financial Conditions ◽

Geographical Regions ◽

Two Stages ◽

The Impact

This paper presents a novel application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to analyze the impact of oil price changes on the efficiency of banks. Factors that affect the efficiency of banks have been of interest to researchers in various geographical regions. With a special focus on oil price changes, we investigate the determinants of bank efficiency in the Middle Eastern Oil-Exporting (MEOE) countries where macro-financial conditions are substantially affected by swings in oil prices. Our analysis consists of two stages: (i) measuring the efficiency scores of banks using the Semi-Oriented Radial Measure (SORM) DEA model, (ii) investigating the impact of alternative indicators of oil prices on the estimated efficiency scores after controlling for key bank-specific and country-specific variables. The analysis is based on an un-balanced panel data of banks operating in the Middle Eastern Oil-Exporting countries over the period of 2001–2011. Our findings reveal that oil price changes affect the efficiency of banks in the MEOE countries through both direct and indirect channels. In addition, we find that Islamic banks in the region are less responsive to oil price changes than commercial and investment banks.

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