scholarly journals Import Protection, Business Cycles, and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Great Recession

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad P. Bown ◽  
Meredith A. Crowley
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The Great Recession

scholarly journals Import Protection, Business Cycles, and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Great Recession

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad P. Bown ◽  
Meredith A. Crowley
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The Great Recession

scholarly journals Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: Evidence from the Great Recession

2013 ◽  
Vol 90 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad P. Bown ◽  
Meredith A. Crowley
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The Great Recession

Inflation Targeting, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Macroeconomic Performance Since the Great Recession

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Barnebeck Andersen ◽  
Nikolaj Malchow-MMller ◽  
Jens J. Nordvig
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rates

scholarly journals Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Chen ◽  
Wanyu Chung ◽  
Dennis Novy
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Using detailed firm-level transactions data for UK imports, we find that invoicing in a vehicle currency is pervasive, with more than half of the transactions in our sample invoiced in neither sterling nor the exporter’s currency. We then study the relationship between invoicing currencies and the response of import unit values to exchange rate changes. We find that for transactions invoiced in a vehicle currency, import unit values are much more sensitive to changes in the vehicle currency than in the bilateral exchange rate. Pass-through therefore substantially increases once we account for vehicle currencies. This result helps to explain why UK inflation turned out higher than expected when sterling depreciated during the Great Recession and after the Brexit referendum. Finally, within a conceptual framework we show why bilateral exchange rates are not suitable for capturing exchange rate pass-through under vehicle currency pricing. Overall, our results help to clarify why the literature often finds a disconnect between exchange rates and prices when vehicle currencies are not accounted for.

scholarly journals The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles

Econometrica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 87 (6) ◽  
pp. 1789-1833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Beraja ◽  
Erik Hurst ◽  
Juan Ospina
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Wage Dynamics ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Wage Stickiness

Making inferences about aggregate business cycles from regional variation alone is difficult because of economic channels and shocks that differ between regional and aggregate economies. However, we argue that regional business cycles contain valuable information that can help discipline models of aggregate fluctuations. We begin by documenting a strong relationship across U.S. states between local employment and wage growth during the Great Recession. This relationship is much weaker in U.S. aggregates. Then, we present a methodology that combines such regional and aggregate data in order to estimate a medium‐scale New Keynesian DSGE model. We find that aggregate demand shocks were important drivers of aggregate employment during the Great Recession, but the wage stickiness necessary for them to account for the slow employment recovery and the modest fall in aggregate wages is inconsistent with the flexibility of wages we observe across U.S. states. Finally, we show that our methodology yields different conclusions about the causes of aggregate employment and wage dynamics between 2007 and 2014 than either estimating our model with aggregate data alone or performing back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations that directly extrapolate from well‐identified regional elasticities.

scholarly journals Who Suffers During Recessions?

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 27-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilary Hoynes ◽  
Douglas L Miller ◽  
Jessamyn Schaller
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The United States ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Race And Gender ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Low Education ◽  
Hispanic Workers ◽  
And Gender

In this paper, we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across U.S. states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences are largely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.

scholarly journals Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (198) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Katerina Smídková ◽  
Jan Babecky ◽  
Ales Bulir ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Member States ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
New Eu Member States

scholarly journals Fluctuations in uncertainty

2016 ◽  
pp. 30-55
Author(s):  
N. Bloom
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Recent Growth

In this essay, the author addresses four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries - developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.

scholarly journals Tracking the Pandemic in Real Time: Administrative Micro Data in Business Cycles Enters the Spotlight

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-66
Author(s):  
Joseph Vavra
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
The Great Recession

In this paper I discuss the increasingly prominent role of administrative micro data in macroeconomics research. This type of data proved important for interpreting the causes and consequences of the Great Recession, and it has played a crucial role in shaping economists’ understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic in near real-time. I discuss a number of specific insights from this research while also illustrating some of the broader opportunities and challenges of working with administrative data.

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