Growth, Business Cycles, and the Great Recession: Comparing State and County Unemployment Costs Per Capita for North Carolina

2019 ◽  
pp. 67-82
Author(s):  
Christopher Keller ◽  
James Kleckley
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Per Capita

Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 236-240
Author(s):  
Jessamyn Schaller ◽  
Price Fishback ◽  
Kelli Marquardt
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Data Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Income Shocks ◽  
Entire Sample ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Per Capita

This paper reexamines the association between local economic conditions and fertility using a new dataset of county-level birthrates and per capita income in the United States spanning the period 1937-2016. Using a panel data model, we estimate that growth in local income is positively associated with birthrates over our entire sample period and that the strength of that association peaked during the 1960-1990 period and has declined in recent decades. We additionally estimate dynamic responses to local income shocks, finding that birthrates remain elevated for up to four years after a shock.

scholarly journals The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles

Econometrica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 87 (6) ◽  
pp. 1789-1833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Beraja ◽  
Erik Hurst ◽  
Juan Ospina
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Wage Dynamics ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Wage Stickiness

Making inferences about aggregate business cycles from regional variation alone is difficult because of economic channels and shocks that differ between regional and aggregate economies. However, we argue that regional business cycles contain valuable information that can help discipline models of aggregate fluctuations. We begin by documenting a strong relationship across U.S. states between local employment and wage growth during the Great Recession. This relationship is much weaker in U.S. aggregates. Then, we present a methodology that combines such regional and aggregate data in order to estimate a medium‐scale New Keynesian DSGE model. We find that aggregate demand shocks were important drivers of aggregate employment during the Great Recession, but the wage stickiness necessary for them to account for the slow employment recovery and the modest fall in aggregate wages is inconsistent with the flexibility of wages we observe across U.S. states. Finally, we show that our methodology yields different conclusions about the causes of aggregate employment and wage dynamics between 2007 and 2014 than either estimating our model with aggregate data alone or performing back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations that directly extrapolate from well‐identified regional elasticities.

scholarly journals Who Suffers During Recessions?

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 27-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilary Hoynes ◽  
Douglas L Miller ◽  
Jessamyn Schaller
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The United States ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Race And Gender ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Low Education ◽  
Hispanic Workers ◽  
And Gender

In this paper, we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across U.S. states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences are largely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.

Capital accumulation and economic growth after the Great Recession

2019 ◽  
pp. 24-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonid M. Grigoryev ◽  
Ekaterina A. Makarova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Per Capita

The Great Recession in 2008—2009 and slow recovery after it became a significant challenge both for economic policy and theory, especially for economic growth studies. New circumstances have revealed new stylized facts, for instance, the decrease in growth rates and capital accumulation in advanced economies. The paper analyzes responses to and outcomes of the Great Recession for countries at different stages of development. The authors consider the investment impact on economic growth varying through seven clusters of countries, determined according to GDP (PPP) level per capita. An attempt has been made to reveal new stylized facts based on current trends and to revise some theoretical approaches to the analysis of economic growth.

scholarly journals The Great Recession and the Social Safety Net

2013 ◽  
Vol 650 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Moffitt
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Poverty Line ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Social Safety Net ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Social ◽  
Per Capita

The social safety net responded in significant and favorable ways during the Great Recession. Aggregate per capita expenditures in safety net programs grew significantly, with particularly strong growth in the SNAP, EITC, UI, and Medicaid programs. The increase in transfers was widely shared across demographic groups, including families with and without children, and single-parent and two-parent families. Transfers grew as well among families with more employed members and with fewer employed members. In the low-income population, however, the increase in transfer amounts was not strongly progressive across income classes, with transfers to those just below or above the poverty line increasing slightly, compared to those at the bottom of the income distribution. This was mainly because of the EITC program, which provides greater benefits to those with higher family earnings. The expansions of SNAP and UI benefitted those at the bottom of the income distribution to a greater extent.

scholarly journals Regional Resilience in Ireland and the Existence of a Two-Tier Recovery

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 99-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barraí Hennebry
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Regional Disparities ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Regional Resilience ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract This paper focuses on the increasing regional disparities in Ireland, especially since the great recession and assesses the degree to which the recovery has been concentrated in urban areas. Ireland was initially affected by the recession to a greater extent than other countries but has recovered strongly. However, this recovery has not been evenly distributed, with some regions showing greater economic resilience. Using descriptive statistics of GDP per capita (PPP), GVA and employment, this paper examines the extent to which the recovery has been a two-tier recovery. The paper finds evidence to suggest that the recovery has been heavily concentrated in Dublin, and to a lesser extent in Cork and Galway, resulting in an urban-rural divide.

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