scholarly journals Euro Area Periphery Countries’ Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Hülsewig ◽  
Johann Scharler
Author(s):  
Joanna Stawska

The study presents the impact of monetary-fiscal policy mix on economic growth, mainly for the investments of euro area in financial crisis. Fiscal policy and monetary policy play an important role in the economy, influencing each other and on a number of economic variables as well. In the face of the recent financial crisis, which turned into a debt crisis, fiscal and monetary authorities have been working together to revive economic activity. There was a significant economic impact on the level of government investments. The central bank kept interest rates at very low levels and used nonstandard instruments of monetary policy. Fiscal authorities have increased government spending to stimulate investment and economic recovery. The paper concludes that the management of the fiscal and monetary authorities in a crisis situation has been modified compared to the period before the crisis, when the coordination of these policies was clearly weaker.


Significance Markets have taken badly the Fed's more hawkish policy guidance for 2017, not expecting such a shift in monetary policy so soon. The shift in US monetary policy comes just as the ECB is preparing the ground for the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. While Turkish assets are the most vulnerable partly because of the severe escalation in political risk, the Polish zloty is also at risk thanks mainly to its status as one of the most liquid EM currencies. Impacts Investors see global financial markets at an inflection point as monetary policy gives way to fiscal policy as the main source of stimulus. This monetary-to-fiscal shift will fuel uncertainty about the direction of asset prices. Rising oil prices will allay concerns about deflation in the euro-area. As major Emerging Europe currencies suffer, the ruble is rising against the dollar amid oil price rises and Trump’s Russia-friendly remarks.


Significance While the Governing Council is divided over the issue, President Christine Lagarde appears to favour more active fiscal policy by member states to stabilise the European economy. Impacts Mixed communication from the ECB Governing Council could undermine market confidence in Lagarde’s presidency. Using monetary policy to tackle climate change will be a key goal for the ECB under Lagarde’s presidency. A disjointed economic recovery across the euro-area will likely increase division within the ECB over its response options. Countries whose economies have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19 will resist calls for fiscal consolidation from 2022 onwards.


2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (5) ◽  
pp. 274-277
Author(s):  
Ivo Arnold

AbstractFollowing the twin crises of sovereign debt and COVID-19, the ECB risks being stuck in a situation of fiscal dominance, in which monetary policy is subordinated to the needs of finance ministers. A strong post-COVID-19 recovery may increase inflationary pressures, requiring a shift towards a less accommodative monetary policy stance. A tightening of monetary policy may, however, lead to a widening of interest rate spreads and new bond market tensions in the euro area. This article argues that the credibility of the ECB is undermined if it is perceived as aiming to close interest spreads. Interest spreads between euro countries arising from fiscal concerns should be a matter of fiscal policy, not monetary policy. The establishment of an interest stabilisation mechanism would allow the ECB to restore monetary dominance and to focus on maintaining price stability.


2009 ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin

The article examines the causes of origin and manifestation of the current global financial crisis and the policies adopted in developed countries in 2007—2008 to deal with it. It considers the effects of the financial crisis on Russia’s economy and monetary policy of the Central Bank in the current conditions as well as the main guidelines for the fiscal policy under different energy prices. The measures for fighting the crisis that the Russian government and the Central Bank use to support the real economy are described.


2020 ◽  
pp. 55-85
Author(s):  
Francesco Caprioli ◽  
Marzia Romanelli ◽  
Pietro Tommasino

Author(s):  
Paul Dalziel ◽  
J. W. Nevile

There was much in common in the development of post-Keynesian economics in Australia and New Zealand, but there were also many differences. Both countries shared a common heritage in higher education. In the first twenty-five years after World War II, both countries adopted broadly Keynesian policies and experienced very low levels of unemployment. Increasingly over these years more theorizing about macroeconomic policy had what now would be called a post-Keynesian content, but this label was not used till after the event. In both countries, apart from one important factor, the experience of actual monetary policy and theorizing about it were similar. Keynesian ideas were more rapidly adopted in Australia than in many other countries. Not surprisingly for a couple of decades after 1936, analysis of policy and its application was Keynesian rather than post-Keynesian, with fiscal policy playing the major role. The conduct of both monetary and fiscal policy depends on the theory of inflation. This chapter examines post-Keynesian economics in Australasia, focusing on aggregate demand, economic growth, and income distribution policy.


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