The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the Investment of Small and Large Firms: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junhyong Kim
Author(s):  
Darwin Ugarte Ontiveros

Recent evidence suggests that formality improves micro-firms profits in Bolivia. This gain is only for firms with 2 to 5 workers, while smaller and larger firms would lose out by formalizing (McKenzie and Sakho, 2010). However, as much of the empirical literature on this topic, the estimations are based on strong assumptions about unobservables. If the returns to formality vary among firms and these variations influence selection into formality, traditional estimators are biased (Heckman and Vytlacil, 2007). In this paper we considerthese elements to estimate the heterogeneous effects of formality on firm profits in Bolivia. We find remarkable heterogeneity in the returns to formality, from -3% to 6%. The group of firms with positive marginal effects from formality corresponds to those which are most likely to register. We also characterize the firms that likely benefit from having a formal status. These would correspond to large firms which work at big scales.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhan Mugaloglu ◽  
Ali Yavuz Polat ◽  
Hasan Tekin ◽  
Edanur Kılıç

PurposeThis study aims to measure economic uncertainty in Turkey by a novel economic uncertainty index (EUI) employing principal component analysis (PCA). We assess the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with our constructed uncertainty index.Design/methodology/approachIn order to obtain the EUI, this study employs a dimension reduction method of PCA using 14 macroeconomic indicators that spans from January 2011 to July 2020. The first principal component is picked as a proxy for the economic uncertainty in Turkey which explains 52% of total variation in entire sample. In the second part of our analysis, with our constructed EUI we conduct a structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) analysis simulating the Covid-19-induced uncertainty shock to the real economy.FindingsOur EUI sensitively detects important economic/political events in Turkey as well as Covid-19-induced uncertainty rising to extremely high levels during the outbreak. Our SVAR results imply a significant decline in economic activity and in the sub-indices as well. Namely, industrial production drops immediately by 8.2% and cumulative loss over 8 months will be 15% on average. The losses in the capital and intermediate goods are estimated to be 18 and 25% respectively. Forecast error variance decomposition results imply that uncertainty shocks preserve its explanatory power in the long run, and intermediate goods production is more vulnerable to uncertainty shocks than overall industrial production and capital goods production.Practical implicationsThe results indicate that monetary and fiscal policy should aim to decrease uncertainty during Covid-19. Moreover, since investment expenditures are affected severely during the outbreak, policymakers should impose investment subsidies.Originality/valueThis is the first study constructing a novel EUI which sensitively captures the critical economic/political events in Turkey. Moreover, we assess the impact of Covid-19-driven uncertainty on Turkish Economy with a SVAR model.


2020 ◽  
pp. 234094442091630
Author(s):  
Juan A. Máñez ◽  
Óscar Vicente-Chirivella

We investigate the role of financial constraints on firms’ exporting behavior, including firms’ export decision, export intensity, firms starting to export decision, and exports persistence. Our financial constraints variable is a synthetic variable that summarizes information on different dimensions such as total assets, profitability, liquidity, solvency, repaying ability, and (new in this type of analyses) the cost of external financing. Using data on Spanish manufacturing for the period 1992–2014, we find evidence supporting that financial health is relevant to explain small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) exporting decisions and starting to export decisions but not those of large firms. Financial health does not seem to affect large firms’ export intensity and the results of the impact of financial health on SMEs export intensity are not conclusive. Nevertheless, financial health is a determinant of export persistence of large firms and SMEs. JEL CLASSIFICATION: F14; G32; L60; C35


foresight ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 563-577
Author(s):  
Jonathan Calof

Purpose Given the importance of competitive intelligence (CI) to the economic performance of firms, understanding whether CI practice is impacted by firm size or by their awareness of CI maybe important when creating programs designed to improve firms’ CI performance. This paper aims to address this by examining the extent to which the CI practices of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large firms differed using a sample of firms with knowledge/awareness of CI. Design/methodology/approach A survey was developed that included 10 CI organization questions and 67 CI process questions. The survey was sent to a sample with awareness/knowledge of CI – strategic and CI professionals (SCIP) members and individuals who had attended SCIP events T-tests were then used to compare the SME’s and large firms’ responses to the 10 CI organization and 67 CI process questions. Findings For firms with CI awareness/knowledge, the study results suggest that size has very little relationship with CI practice. Of the 10 CI organization variables, only two were significantly different between the SME’s and the large firms. Large firms had more full-time CI staff and were more likely to have a formal intelligence unit compared to the SME’s. Of the 67 CI process variables, only four were significantly different between the SME’s and the large firms. Large firms made more use of company intranet for distributing CI findings use business analytics software and use commercial databases for information than SME’s while the SME’s used social media, in particular Facebook more than large firms, in their competitive intelligence activities. Originality/value This study uses a sample frame of firms with CI awareness/knowledge in examining differences between SME’s and large firms CI practices.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
David Roubaud ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz

1999 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eckehard Schulz

AbstractThis study yields the impact of firm size as a determinant of employment. Using the theoretical framework of labor elasticities, it is argued that Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SME’s) are superior in creating jobs if an increase in their share - by reducing the share of large firms - stimulates the aggregate demand for labor. This could be due to a (static) more labor intensive production technology and/or a (dynamic) higher efficiency. The so determined Mittelstands-hypothese is theoretically and empirically examined. Further - from an ordoliberal perspective - the question is raised whether other indicators are more qualified to boost employment and to refresh market forces in the longrun.


1983 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 953-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C. Mowery

The literature on the development of American industrial research suggests that during the twentieth century large firms “dominated” industrial research, and reaped the majority of the benefits from such activity. This paper utilizes new data to analyze both the relationship between firm size and research employment and the impact of research activity on firm growth and survival during 1921–1946. The results suggest that large firms were no more research-intensive than were small firms during the 1921–1946 period. Research activity significantly enhanced the probability of firms' survival among the ranks of the 200 largest manufacturing firms during 1921–1946. Research employment also improved the growth performance of both large and small firms during 1933–1946.


2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (06) ◽  
pp. 1750038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derya Findik ◽  
Berna Beyhan

This paper aims to introduce a qualitative indicator to measure innovation performance of Turkish firms by using firm-level data collected by Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) in 2008 and 2009. We propose a new indicator to measure the innovation performance which is simply based on the perception of firms regarding to the impacts of innovation. In order to create performance indicators, we conduct a factor analysis to group the firms’ perceptions on the impacts of innovation. Factor analysis gives us product and process-oriented impacts of innovation. There are significant differences among product innovators, process innovators and firms engaged in both product and process innovations with respect to their perceptions on product and process-oriented impacts of innovation. Among these three groups, product- and process-oriented impacts provide a highest value for the firms that perform both product and process innovations. As far as the link between firm characteristics and the impact of innovation is considered, there is a significant difference between small and large firms with respect to their perceptions on product-oriented impact of innovation. While product-oriented impact is larger for small firms, large firms focus more on process-oriented impact. Anova results also indicate that perceptions on process-oriented impact significantly differ among exporter firms, domestic market-oriented firms and firms being active in internal and external markets. Process-oriented impact generates results in favor of exporting firms.


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