The Impact of Energy Market Uncertainty Shocks on Energy Transition in Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
David Roubaud ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz
Keyword(s):  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
The Impact

Risk Attitude and Corporate Investment under Output Market Uncertainty: Evidence from The Mekong River Delta, Vietnam

2016 ◽  
pp. 59-70
Author(s):  
Ninh Le Khuong ◽  
Nghiem Le Tan ◽  
Tho Huynh Huu
Keyword(s):  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Firm Investment ◽  
Output Market ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to detect the impact of firm managers’ risk attitude on the relationship between the degree of output market uncertainty and firm investment. The findings show that there is a negative relationship between these two aspects for risk-averse managers while there is a positive relationship for risk-loving ones, since they have different utility functions. Based on the findings, this paper proposes recommendations for firm managers to take into account when making investment decisions and long-term business strategies as well.

scholarly journals Renewable Energy Deployment and COVID-19 Measures for Sustainable Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4418
Author(s):  
Miraj Ahmed Bhuiyan ◽  
Jaehyung An ◽  
Alexey Mikhaylov ◽  
Nikita Moiseev ◽  
Mir Sayed Shah Danish
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact

The main goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of restrictive measures introduced in connection with COVID-19 on consumption in renewable energy markets. The study will be based on the hypothesis that similar changes in human behavior can be expected in the future with the further spread of COVID-19 and/or the introduction of additional quarantine measures around the world. The analysis also yielded additional results. The strongest reductions in energy generation occurred in countries with a high percentage (more than 80%) of urban population (Brazil, USA, the United Kingdom and Germany). This study uses two models created with the Keras Long Short-Term Memory (Keras LSTM) Model, and 76 and 10 parameters are involved. This article suggests that various restrictive strategies reduced the sustainable demand for renewable energy and led to a drop in economic growth, slowing the growth of COVID-19 infections in 2020. It is unknown to what extent the observed slowdown in the spread from March 2020 to September 2020 due to the policy’s impact and not the interaction between the virus and the external environment. All renewable energy producers decreased the volume of renewable energy market supply in 2020 (except China).

Assessing the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with a novel economic uncertainty index

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhan Mugaloglu ◽  
Ali Yavuz Polat ◽  
Hasan Tekin ◽  
Edanur Kılıç
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to measure economic uncertainty in Turkey by a novel economic uncertainty index (EUI) employing principal component analysis (PCA). We assess the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with our constructed uncertainty index.Design/methodology/approachIn order to obtain the EUI, this study employs a dimension reduction method of PCA using 14 macroeconomic indicators that spans from January 2011 to July 2020. The first principal component is picked as a proxy for the economic uncertainty in Turkey which explains 52% of total variation in entire sample. In the second part of our analysis, with our constructed EUI we conduct a structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) analysis simulating the Covid-19-induced uncertainty shock to the real economy.FindingsOur EUI sensitively detects important economic/political events in Turkey as well as Covid-19-induced uncertainty rising to extremely high levels during the outbreak. Our SVAR results imply a significant decline in economic activity and in the sub-indices as well. Namely, industrial production drops immediately by 8.2% and cumulative loss over 8 months will be 15% on average. The losses in the capital and intermediate goods are estimated to be 18 and 25% respectively. Forecast error variance decomposition results imply that uncertainty shocks preserve its explanatory power in the long run, and intermediate goods production is more vulnerable to uncertainty shocks than overall industrial production and capital goods production.Practical implicationsThe results indicate that monetary and fiscal policy should aim to decrease uncertainty during Covid-19. Moreover, since investment expenditures are affected severely during the outbreak, policymakers should impose investment subsidies.Originality/valueThis is the first study constructing a novel EUI which sensitively captures the critical economic/political events in Turkey. Moreover, we assess the impact of Covid-19-driven uncertainty on Turkish Economy with a SVAR model.

Il mercato nazionale e locale per l'energia. Il servizio al consumatore finale quale ultimo step di un'unica filiera

2009 ◽  
pp. 153-163
Author(s):  
Barbara Antonioli
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Price Competition ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Local Market ◽  
End User ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Real Price ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Critical Aspects

- The reorganization of the energy market, together with an increase in the mobility of resources and the evolution of supply, have reduced borders between national and local market, and both regulatory policies and players' strategies have to consider these renewed environment. The goal of this paper is to make some considerations about the dimension and the interactions between national and locals, up-stream and downstream energy markets, both in terms of value chain phases regulation and of the impact on firms' organization and on the industry as a whole. We want to highlight evident problems of coordination of different rules, the necessity to define a clear national industrial policy (not fragmented at local level), as well as the relevance of the end user prices regulation for liberalized market. In particular, this kind of regulation seems to represent a key point of the current discussion between operators and the energy Authority. The end users price regulation present some critical aspects related to its (contested) limited contribution to a real price competition but, on the other side, had to be considered as a strong protection for domestic customers, as well as a way to reduce information asymmetry.Key words: Energy, competition, regulation.JEL classifications: H1, K2.Parole chiave: Energia, concorrenza, regolazione.

On the Evaluation and Consideration of Fracture Mechanical Notch Support Within a Creep Fatigue Lifetime Assessment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Kontermann ◽  
Henning Almstedt ◽  
Falk Müller ◽  
Matthias Oechsner
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Loading ◽  
Experimental Program ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Steam Turbines ◽  
Fatigue Lifetime ◽  
Global Strain ◽  
Creep Fatigue ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Flexible Operation ◽  
The Impact

Changes within the global energy market and a demand for a more flexible operation of gas- and steam-turbines leads to higher utilization of main components and raises the question how to deal with this challenge. One strategy to encounter this is to increase the accuracy of the lifetime assessment by quantifying and reducing conservatisms. At first the impact of considering a fracture mechanical notch support under creep-fatigue loading is studied by discussing the results of an extensive experimental program performed on notched round-bars under global strain control. A proposal how to consider this fracture mechanical notch support within a lifetime assessment is part of the discussion of the second part. Here, a theoretical FEM-based concept is introduced and validated by comparing the theoretical prediction with the results of the previously mentioned experimental study. Finally, the applicability of the developed and validated FEM-based procedure is demonstrated.

The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro Variables – An SVAR-Based Empirical Analysis for EU Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Kronen ◽  
Ansgar Belke
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Structural Vector

AbstractIn light of the rising political and economic uncertainty in Europe, we aim to provide a basic understanding of the impact of policy and stock market uncertainty on a set of macroeconomic variables such as production and investment. In this paper, we apply a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to gain first insights that may help to identify avenues for further research. We find that stock market volatility shows a fairly consistently negative effect. However, the implications of policy uncertainty for Europe and the euro area in particular are not so straightforward.

scholarly journals Energy Security Problem amid Global Energy Transition

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 772-784
Author(s):  
Yury V. Borovsky
Keyword(s):  
Energy Security ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

In the early 2020s the worlds transition from carbon-intensive to climate-neutral energy use has already become a discernible and a difficult-to-reverse process. With Joe Bidens election as US president, the United States have returned to the Paris Climate Agreement and have become a key driver of this process (along with the EU and China). As a result, the international community has reached a consensus on the ongoing energy transition. This process will require considerable effort and may take several decades. Nevertheless, the impact of energy transition on traditional approaches to energy security, which emerged largely as a result of the global oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s and are centered around the supply of fossil fuels, is already a relevant research topic. This problem is examined relying on the relevant terminological, theoretical and factual material. The article concludes that energy transition will ultimately undermine the carbon paradigm that has underpinned energy security policies since the 1970s. Rapid development of renewable and other low-carbon energy sources will certainly remove key energy security risks of energy importers and, possibly, allow them to achieve energy independence. However, a post-carbon era may also generate new risks. For countries that rely heavily on oil, gas and coal exports, energy transition will result in the loss of markets and revenues. It may present an energy security threat for them as well as it will require a costly and technologically complex process of the energy sector decarbonization. Some exporters, especially those with high fuel rents and insufficient financial reserves, may face serious economic and social upheavals as a result of energy transition. The EU and the US energy transition policies reflect provisions of all three fundamental international relations theoretical paradigms, including realism. This means that the EU and the US policy, aimed at promoting climate agenda, may be expected to be rather tough and aggressive. China as the third key player in energy transition is still following a liberal course; however, it may change in the future.

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