scholarly journals Interannual Variability of Sea Ice Area in the Sea of Okhotsk: Importance of Surface Heat Flux in Fall

2006 ◽  
Vol 84 (5) ◽  
pp. 907-919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kay I. OHSHIMA ◽  
Sohey NIHASHI ◽  
Eisuke HASHIYA ◽  
Tomohiro WATANABE
1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 327-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Julie L. Schramm ◽  
Judith A. Curry

Due to large uncertainties in many of the parameters used to model sea ice, it is possible that models with significantly different physical processes can be tuned to obtain realistic present-day simulations. However, in studies of climate change, it is the response of the model it various perturbations that is important, in studies response can be significantly different in sea-ice models that include or exclude various physical feedback mechanisms. Because simplifications in sea-ice physics are necessary for general circulation model experiments, it is important to assess which physical processes are essential for the accurate determination of the sensitivity of the ice pack to climate perturbations. We have attempted to address these issues using a new coupled ice-thickness distribution ocean mixed-layer model. The sensitivity of the model to surface heat-flux perturbations is examined and the importance of the ice ocean and ice-albedo feedback mechanisms in determining this sensitivity is analyzed. We find that the ice ocean and ice-albedo feedback processes are not mutually exclusive, and that they both significantly alter the model response to surface heat flux perturbations.


2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1937-1952
Author(s):  
James O. Pope ◽  
Thomas J. Bracegirdle ◽  
Ian A. Renfrew ◽  
Andrew D. Elvidge

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 331-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Tietsche ◽  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
Jonathan J. Day

Abstract Uncertainty of Arctic seasonal to interannual predictions arising from model errors and initial state uncertainty has been widely discussed in the literature, whereas the irreducible forecast uncertainty (IFU) arising from the chaoticity of the climate system has received less attention. However, IFU provides important insights into the mechanisms through which predictability is lost and hence can inform prioritization of model development and observations deployment. Here, the authors characterize how internal oceanic and surface atmospheric heat fluxes contribute to the IFU of Arctic sea ice and upper-ocean heat content in an Earth system model by analyzing a set of idealized ensemble prediction experiments. It is found that atmospheric and oceanic heat flux are often equally important for driving unpredictable Arctic-wide changes in sea ice and surface water temperatures and hence contribute equally to IFU. Atmospheric surface heat flux tends to dominate Arctic-wide changes for lead times of up to a year, whereas oceanic heat flux tends to dominate regionally and on interannual time scales. There is in general a strong negative covariance between surface heat flux and ocean vertical heat flux at depth, and anomalies of lateral ocean heat transport are wind driven, which suggests that the unpredictable oceanic heat flux variability is mainly forced by the atmosphere. These results are qualitatively robust across different initial states, but substantial variations in the amplitude of IFU exist. It is concluded that both atmospheric variability and the initial state of the upper ocean are key ingredients for predictions of Arctic surface climate on seasonal to interannual time scales.


1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 327-332
Author(s):  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Julie L. Schramm ◽  
Judith A. Curry

Due to large uncertainties in many of the parameters used to model sea ice, it is possible that models with significantly different physical processes can be tuned to obtain realistic present-day simulations. However, in studies of climate change, it is the response of the model it various perturbations that is important, in studies response can be significantly different in sea-ice models that include or exclude various physical feedback mechanisms. Because simplifications in sea-ice physics are necessary for general circulation model experiments, it is important to assess which physical processes are essential for the accurate determination of the sensitivity of the ice pack to climate perturbations. We have attempted to address these issues using a new coupled ice-thickness distribution ocean mixed-layer model. The sensitivity of the model to surface heat-flux perturbations is examined and the importance of the ice ocean and ice-albedo feedback mechanisms in determining this sensitivity is analyzed. We find that the ice ocean and ice-albedo feedback processes are not mutually exclusive, and that they both significantly alter the model response to surface heat flux perturbations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Finocchio ◽  
James D. Doyle

We investigate the effects of summer cyclones on sea ice within the Pacific sector of the Arctic by analyzing the surface energy flux and wind forcing from a large sample of cyclones. Consistent with recent studies, we find that cyclones earlier in the melt season tend to be associated with less 1–5 day sea ice loss than what occurs in the absence of cyclones. In contrast, cyclones later in the melt season slightly accelerate the 1-day sea ice loss. The reduced ice loss following cyclones in June is primarily due to increased cloud cover reducing the net shortwave flux at the surface. Clouds associated with cyclones in July and August also reduce the net shortwave flux at the surface, but only over high-concentration sea ice. Southerly winds associated with August cyclones increase both the negative local sea ice advection and the surface heat flux, particularly for the low concentration sea ice that is prevalent in August. Sea ice advection and surface heat flux are the only two factors we examined that can explain the enhanced ice loss on cyclone days in August. We also examined two cyclone cases that impacted sea ice in the East Siberian Sea in June 2012 and August 2016, and found for both cyclones that the sensible heat flux is the largest positive anomalous forcing and the shortwave radiative flux is the largest negative anomalous forcing. Similar to the large sample of cyclones, the shortwave flux has a stronger relationship to local changes in SIC in June than in August. Part of the reason for this is that the cloud shortwave radiative forcing during the August cyclone is 26% weaker than during the June cyclone. In an area averaged sense, the anomalous surface energy and wind forcing of both cyclone cases is similar in magnitude, yet the August cyclone is followed by a greater reduction in both sea ice area and mean sea ice concentration than the June cyclone. This result emphasizes how the underlying sea ice characteristics largely determine cyclone impacts on sea ice on short time scales.


2020 ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
Yuri P. Zarichnyak ◽  
Vyacheslav P. Khodunkov

The analysis of a new class of measuring instrument for heat quantities based on the use of multi-valued measures of heat conductivity of solids. For example, measuring thermal conductivity of solids shown the fallacy of the proposed approach and the illegality of the use of the principle of ambiguity to intensive thermal quantities. As a proof of the error of the approach, the relations for the thermal conductivities of the component elements of a heat pump that implements a multi-valued measure of thermal conductivity are given, and the limiting cases are considered. In two ways, it is established that the thermal conductivity of the specified measure does not depend on the value of the supplied heat flow. It is shown that the declared accuracy of the thermal conductivity measurement method does not correspond to the actual achievable accuracy values and the standard for the unit of surface heat flux density GET 172-2016. The estimation of the currently achievable accuracy of measuring the thermal conductivity of solids is given. The directions of further research and possible solutions to the problem are given.


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