scholarly journals Implementasi Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Recurrent Dengan Metode Pembelajaran Gradient Descent Adaptive Learning Rate Untuk Pendugaan Curah Hujan Berdasarkan Peubah Enso

Author(s):  
Afan Galih Salman ◽  
Yen Lina Prasetio

The use of technology of technology Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in prediction of rainfall can be done using the learning approach. ANN prediction accuracy measured by the coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).This research employ a recurrent optimized heuristic Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Recurrent Elman gradient descent adaptive learning rate approach using El-Nino Southern Oscilation (ENSO) variable, namely Wind, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperatur (SST) dan Outgoing Long Wave Radiation (OLR) to forecast regional monthly rainfall. The patterns of input data affect the performance of Recurrent Elman neural network in estimation process. The first data group that is 75% training data and 25% testing data produce the maximum R2 69.2% at leap 0 while the second data group that is 50% training data & 50% testing data produce the maximum R2 53.6%.at leap 0 Our result on leap 0 is better than leap 1,2 or 3. 

Author(s):  
Afan Galih Salman ◽  
Yen Lina Prasetio

The artificial neural network (ANN) technology in rainfall prediction can be done using the learning approach. The ANN prediction accuracy is measured by the determination coefficient (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). This research implements Elman’s Recurrent ANN which is heuristically optimized based on el-nino southern oscilation (ENSO) variables: wind, southern oscillation index (SOI), sea surface temperatur (SST) dan outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) to forecast regional monthly rainfall in Bongan Bali. The heuristic learning optimization done is basically a performance development of standard gradient descent learning algorithm into training algorithms: gradient descent momentum and adaptive learning rate. The patterns of input data affect the performance of Recurrent Elman neural network in estimation process. The first data group that is 75% training data and 25% testing data produce the maximum R2 leap 74,6% while the second data group that is 50% training data and 50% testing data produce the maximum R2 leap 49,8%.


Author(s):  
Hadjira Maouz ◽  
◽  
Asma Adda ◽  
Salah Hanini ◽  
◽  
...  

The concentration of carbonyl is one of the most important properties contributing to the detection of the thermal aging of polymer ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM). In this publication, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict concentration of carbenyl during the thermal aging of EPDM using a database consisting of seven input variables. The best fitting training data was obtained with the architecture of (7 inputs neurons, 10 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron). A Levenberg Marquardt learning (LM) algorithm, hyperbolic tangent transfer function were used at the hidden and output layer respectively. The optimal ANN was obtained with a high correlation coefficient R= 0.995 and a very low root mean square error RMSE = 0.0148 mol/l during the generalization phase. The comparison between the experimental and calculated results show that the ANN model is able of predicted the concentration of carbonyl during the thermal aging of ethylene propylene diene monomer


2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gurjeet Singh ◽  
Rabindra K. Panda ◽  
Marc Lamers

The reported study was undertaken in a small agricultural watershed, namely, Kapgari in Eastern India having a drainage area of 973 ha. The watershed was subdivided into three sub-watersheds on the basis of drainage network and land topography. An attempt was made to relate the continuously monitored runoff data from the sub-watersheds and the whole-watershed with the rainfall and temperature data using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The reported study also evaluated the bias in the prediction of daily runoff with shorter length of training data set using different resampling techniques with the ANN modeling. A 10-fold cross-validation (CV) technique was used to find the optimum number of hidden neurons in the hidden layer and to avoid neural network over-fitting during the training process for shorter length of data. The results illustrated that the ANN models developed with shorter length of training data set avoid neural network over-fitting during the training process, using a 10-fold CV method. Moreover, the biasness was investigated using the bootstrap resampling technique based ANN (BANN) for short length of training data set. In comparison with the 10-fold CV technique, the BANN is more efficient in solving the problems of the over-fitting and under-fitting during training of models for shorter length of data set.


2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahratul Fitri

Abstrak— Algoritma backpropagation merupakan bagian dari Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan (JST) yang memiliki beberapa layar tersembunyi. Algoritma backpropagation juga merupakan multi-layer yang banyak digunakan untuk menyelesaikan persoalan yang luas, akan tetapi, algoritma backpropagation juga memiliki kelamahan pada proses pembelajaran yang cukup lambat. Pada penelitian ini penulis menganalisis bagaimana mengembangkan algoritma backpropagation dengan menggunakan learning rate dan parameter momentum untuk meminimalisir error dan epoch yang akurat sebagai proses menghitung perubahan bobot. Dari hasil penelitian diperoleh bahwa pengembangan yang dilakukan memperoleh nilai paling baik pada nilai momentum yaitu 0,9 dan 1.0 dan nilai learning rate yaitu > 0,7. Hal ini membuktikan bahwa nilai pembelajaran dengan menggunakan nilai parameter momentum dan nilai learning rate diatas sangat baik digunakan sebagai percepatan laju konvergensi.Kata kunci— Algoritma Backpropagation, Parameter Momentum, Adaptive Learning Rate . Abstract— Backpropagation algorithm is part of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which has some hidden screen. Backpropagation algorithm is also a multi-layer finish that is widely used for large problems, however, the backpropagation algorithm also has weaknesses in the learning process is quite slow. In this study the authors analyze how to develop a backpropagation algorithm using learning rate and momentum parameters to minimize the error and accurate epoch as the process of calculating the weight change. The result showed that the development is carried out to obtain best value on the momentum value of 0.9 and 1.0 and the value of learning rate is> 0.7. It is proved that the value of learning by using the parameter values of momentum and learning rate values above are best used as a convergence rate acceleration.Keywords— Backpropagation Algorithm, Parameter of Momentum, Adaptive   Learning Rate


eLEKTRIKA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Mukti Dwi Cahyo ◽  
Sri Heranurweni ◽  
Harmini Harmini

Electric power is one of the main needs of society today, ranging from household consumers to industry. The demand for electricity increases every year. So as to achieve adjustments between power generation and power demand, the electricity provider (PLN) must know the load needs or electricity demand for some time to come. There are many studies on the prediction of electricity loads in electricity, but they are not specific to each consumer sector. One of the predictions of this electrical load can be done using the Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method. This method uses training data learning from 2010 - 2017 as a reference data. Calculations with this method are based on empirical experience of electricity provider planning which is relatively difficult to do, especially in terms of corrections that need to be made to changes in load. This study specifically predicts the electricity load in the Semarang Rayon network service area in 2019-2024. The results of this Artificial Neural Network produce projected electricity demand needs in 2019-2024 with an average annual increase of 1.01% and peak load in 2019-2024. The highest peak load in 2024 and the dominating average is the household sector with an increase of 1% per year. The accuracy results of the Radial Basis Function model reached 95%.


Author(s):  
Wee-Beng Tay ◽  
Murali Damodaran ◽  
Zhi-Da Teh ◽  
Rahul Halder

Abstract Investigation of applying physics informed neural networks on the test case involving flow past Converging-Diverging (CD) Nozzle has been investigated. Both Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN) are used to do the training and prediction. Results show that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) by itself is already able to give relatively good prediction. With the addition of PINN, the error reduces even more, although by only a relatively small amount. This is perhaps due to the already good prediction. The effects of batch size, training iteration and number of epochs on the prediction accuracy have already been tested. It is found that increasing batch size improves the prediction. On the other hand, increasing the training iteration may give poorer prediction due to overfitting. Lastly, in general, increasing epochs reduces the error. More investigations should be done in the future to further reduce the error while at the same time using less training data. More complicated cases with time varying results should also be included. Extrapolation of the results using PINN can also be tested.


Designs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Timo von Wysocki ◽  
Frank Rieger ◽  
Dimitrios Ernst Tsokaktsidis ◽  
Frank Gauterin

In modern vehicle development, suspension components have to meet many boundary conditions. In noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) development these are for example eigenfrequencies and frequency response function (FRF) amplitudes. Component geometry parameters, for example kinematic hard points, often affect multiple of these targets in a non intuitive way. In this article, we present a practical approach to find optimized parameters for a component design, which fulfills an FRF target curve. By morphing an initial component finite element model we create training data for an artificial neural network (ANN) which predicts FRFs from geometry parameter input. Then the ANN serves as a metamodel for an evolutionary algorithm optimizer which identifies fitting geometry parameter sets, meeting an FRF target curve. The methodology enables a component design which considers an FRF as a component target. In multiple simulation examples we demonstrate the capability of identifying component designs modifying specific eigenfrequency or amplitude features of the FRFs.


2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Diana Laily

ABSTRAK Artificial Neural Network ( ANN ) Perceptron merupakan salah satu dari metode AI yang telah terbukti cukup handal untuk digunakan sebagai teknik pengenalan atau pengindentifikasian.Tujuan dari dibuatnya penelitian ini adalah untuk menerapkan metode Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan atau Artificial Neural Network dengan algortima Perceptron dalam menentukan penyakit cacar daun dan bercak daun pada daun tembakau serta daun cengkeh, dimana sampel daun-daun tersebut dianalisis melalui kedelapan gejala atau ciri yang ditimbulkannya.Tahapan awal yang dilakukan yaitu mengumpulkan beberapa sampel daun tembakau dan daun cengkeh, baik yang terkena penyakit maupun tidak. Kemudian mengelompokkan gejala atau ciri khusus yang ditimbulkan pada setiap daunnya dari penyakit cacar daun dan bercak daun. Ciri penyakit yang positif terlihat pada masing-masing daun akan direpresentasikan dengan nilai bipolar [1, -1], dimana ciri tersebut akan digunakan sebagai nilai masukan pada tahap pelatihan (training) dan pengujian (testing) dalam metode ANN. Dari hasil pengujian terhadap sampel sebanyak 20 daun untuk tahap training dan 10 sampel daun untuk tahap testing, dengan perbandingan penyakit bercak daun dan cacar daun adalah 50 : 50, learning rate sebesar 0,7, lapisan masukan sebanyak 8 buah, dan 1 buah lapisan luaran, didapat bahwa metode ANN Perceptron memiliki persentase keberhasilan pengenalan penyakit sebesar 61% - 73% untuk data non-learning, dan 100% untuk data learning pada kedua jenis daun tersebut. Kata kunci : ANN Perceptron, bipolar, learning rate, cacar daun, bercak daun.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ade Pujianto ◽  
Kusrini Kusrini ◽  
Andi Sunyoto

<p class="Judul21">Seleksi di Amikom masih mengalami kendala pada proses pengambilan keputusan, banyaknya data menyebabkan pengambil keputusan membutuhkan tools yang dapat membantu dalam menentukan penerima beasiswa, salah satu metode yang sering digunakan adalah artificial neural network (ANN). Metode ini meniru jaringan pemodelan saraf otak manusia berupa neuron-neuron untuk menyelesaikan suatu permasalahan. Salah satu penerapan neural network adalah untuk melakukan prediksi atau peramalan terhadap suatu peristiwa tertentu serta dianggap mampu menyelesaikan masalah yang komplek seperti penalaran otak manusia. Untuk menyelesaiakn masalah yang komplek neural network memerlukan banyak neuron atau yang biasa disebut layer (lapis). Salah satu metode neural network multi lapis adalah backpropagation yang mampu mengoptimalisasi bobot pada neuron dan menyelesaikan masalah yang komplek. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah sebuah perancangan sistem prediksi dengan menggunakan metode neural network backpropagation untuk melakukan peramalan terhadap mahasiswa yang mendaftar beasiswa. hasil akhir penelitian ini adalah nilai akurasi sebesar 90% dan nilai error terkecil sebesar 0,000101 pada epoch ke 329 dengan jumlah 3000 data dengan pembagian data training 2.250 dan 750 data testing serta konfigurasi learning rate sebesar 0,2 dan momentum 0,2.</p><p class="Abstrak"> </p><p><strong>Kata kunci</strong>: <em>Artificial Neural netwok</em><em>, </em><em>Backpropagarion, </em><em>Prediksi, beasiswa, Pengambilan Keputusan.</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p class="Judul21"><em>Abstract</em></p><p class="Judul21"><em>Selection in Amikom is still constrained in the decision-making process, the number of data causing decision makers need tools that can assist in determining scholarship recipients, one of the most commonly used method is artificial neural network (ANN). This method mimics the neural network modeling of the human brain in the form of neurons to solve a problem. One application of neural network is to make predictions or forecasting of a particular event and is considered capable of solving complex problems such as human brain reasoning. To solve the problem the complex neural network requires many neurons or so-called layers. One method of multi layer neural network is backpropagation that is able to optimize the weight of neurons and solve complex problems. The result of this research is a prediction system design using neural network backpropagation method to forecast the students who apply for scholarship. the final result of this research is the accuracy value of 90% and the smallest error value of 0.000101 on epoch to 329 with the amount of 3000 data with sharing training 2,250 and 750 data testing and learning rate configuration of 0.2 and momentum 0.2.</em></p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: <em>Artificial Neural Netwok, Backpropagarion, Prediction, Scholarship, Decision Making.</em></p>


TEKNO ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Yuan Octavia ◽  
Arif Nur Afandi ◽  
Hari Putranto

Pada penelitian ini, dilakukan prakiraan beban listrik jangka panjang menggunakan metode Artificial Neural Network (ANN) dengan penerapan algoritma backpropagation pada studi kasus distribusi energi listrik Area Mojokerto. Pada penelitian ini digunakan 8 variabel, dimana untuk variabel dependent berupa beban listrik, sedangkan untuk variabel independent digunakan 7 variabel yaitu jumlah penduduk, PDRB, jumlah pelanggan sektor rumah tangga, jumlah pelanggan sektor industri, jumlah pelanggan sektor usaha, jumlah pelanggan sektor sosial, dan susut distribusi. Berdasarkan hasil percobaan beberapa arsitektur ANN, diperoleh hasil MAPE pengujian terbaik sebesar 0.512% yang berarti memiliki tingkat akurasi tinggi. Hal ini berarti metode ANN dengan algoritma backpropagation dapat diterapkan sebagai metode prakiraan beban listrik untuk studi kasus pada distribusi energi listrik Area Mojokerto. Model ANN-backpropagation terbaik pada penelitian ini adalah variasi bobot dan bias awal diatur secara manual dengan modifikasi menggunakan algoritma inisialisasi Nguyen Widrow, jaringan memiliki 2 hidden layer dengan penyusunan 5 neuron pada hidden layer 1 dan 15 neuron pada hidden layer 2, nilai learning rate dan momentum berturut-turut adalah 0.9 dan 0.1. Berdasarkan arsitektur ANN terbaik, prakiraan beban listrik distribusi area Mojokerto pada tahun 2018 sampai dengan 2030 cenderung mengalami kenaikan dari tahun ke tahun, meskipun ada penurunan sebesar 0.157% dari tahun 2027 ke tahun 2028. Hasil prakiraan terendah ada pada tahun 2018 dengan hasil 312.7489 MW dan beban tertinggi ada pada tahun 2030 dengan hasil 383.5597MW. Hasil prakiraan beban listrik Area Mojokerto dari tahun 2018 sampai dengan 2030 mengalami kenaikan sebesar 22.641% dengan kenaikan rata-rata 1.728% per tahunnya


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