scholarly journals Urban pluvial flooding in Jakarta: applying state-of-the-art technology in a data scarce environment

2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (10) ◽  
pp. 2246-2255 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. Hurford ◽  
Č. Maksimović ◽  
J. P. Leitão
Keyword(s):  
Limited Data ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
Urban Modelling ◽  
History Of ◽  
1D Model ◽  
Urban Pluvial Flooding ◽  
Flooding Events ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
2D Model

Available data relating to major pluvial flooding events in Jakarta, Indonesia were used to investigate the suitability of two different levels of sophistication in urban modelling tools for modelling these events. InfoWorks CS v9.0 was employed to build 1D and 1D/2D models of a 541 ha area of inner city Ciliwung River catchment which has a history of being particularly badly affected by flooding during heavy rainfall events. The study demonstrated that a 1D model was sufficient to simulate the flood extent of a major event using the limited data available. While the 1D/2D model also performed well, more data and time would have been required to match the 1D model's simulation of flood extent. Much more detailed data would have been required to produce reliable results in the 1D/2D model and to enable any kind of verification or calibration of the two models beyond visual comparison with crude flood extent maps.

scholarly journals Tool for Quantitative Risk Analysis of Urban Flooding

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 2771
Author(s):  
Julia Kvitsjøen ◽  
Dick Karlsson ◽  
Trym Teigene ◽  
Webjørn Finsland
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Network Capacity ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Steep Terrain ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
2D Model

One of the effects of climate change is an increasing frequency of heavy rainfall events, which in turn leads to increased flooding damage in urban areas. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for dynamic risk evaluation that can be used to fulfil several of the goals in the European Flood Risk Management Directive. Flood risk analysis was performed as a spatial GIS analysis with the FME software. The primary data source for the analysis was a 1D/2D model calculation, wherein 1D models described the pipeline network and the watercourses and a 2D model described surface runoff. An ArcGIS online platform was developed to visualize the results in a format understandable for decision makers. The method and tool were tested for the Norwegian capital of Oslo. The tool developed in the study enabled the efficient analysis of consequences for various precipitation scenarios. Results could be used to identify the areas most vulnerable to flooding and prioritize areas in which measures need to be implemented. The study showed that for urban areas in steep terrain, it is essential to include water velocity and depth-integrated velocity in risk analysis in addition to water depths and pipe network capacity.

CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN SANTA CATARINA STATE, BRAZIL: PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 413 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Becker Nunes ◽  
Gilson Carlos Da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
History Of ◽  
Santa Catarina State

ABSTRACT. The eastern region of Santa Catarina State (Brazil) has an important history of natural disasters due to extreme rainfall events. Floods and landslides are enhancedby local features such as orography and urbanization: the replacement of natural surface coverage causing more surface runoff and, hence, flooding. Thus, studies of this type of events – which directly influence life in the towns – take on increasing importance. This work makes a quantitative analysis of occurrences of extreme rainfall events in the eastern and northern regions of Santa Catarina State in the last 60 years, through individual analysis, considering the history of floods ineach selected town, as well as an estimate through to the end of century following regional climate modeling. A positive linear trend, in most of the towns studied, was observed in the results, indicating greater frequency of these events in recent decades, and the HadRM3P climate model shows a heterogeneous increase of events for all towns in the period from 2071 to 2100.Keywords: floods, climate modeling, linear trend. RESUMO. A região leste do Estado de Santa Catarina tem um importante histórico de desastres naturais ocasionados por eventos extremos de precipitação. Inundações e deslizamentos de terra são potencializados pelo relevo acidentado e pela urbanização das cidades da região: a vegetação nativa vem sendo removida acarretando um maior escoamento superficial e, consequentemente, em inundações. Desta forma, torna-se de suma importância os estudos acerca deste tipo de evento que influencia diretamente a sociedade em geral. Neste trabalho é realizada uma análise quantitativa do número de eventos severos de precipitação ocorridos nas regiões leste e norte de Santa Catarina dos últimos 60 anos, por meio de uma análise pontual, considerandoo histórico de inundações de cada cidade selecionada, além de uma projeção para o fim do século de acordo com modelagem climática regional. Na análise dos resultados observou-se uma tendência linear positiva na maioria das cidades, indicando uma maior frequência deste tipo de evento nas últimas décadas, e o modelo climático HadRM3P mostra um aumento heterogêneo no número de eventos para todas as cidades no período de 2071 a 2100.Palavras-chave: inundações, modelagem climática, tendência linear.

scholarly journals Low Nucleotide Diversity in Chimpanzees and Bonobos

Genetics ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 164 (4) ◽  
pp. 1511-1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Yu ◽  
Michael I Jensen-Seaman ◽  
Leona Chemnick ◽  
Judith R Kidd ◽  
Amos S Deinard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nucleotide Diversity ◽  
Nuclear Dna ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Nuclear Genome ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
East Central ◽  
Dna Diversity ◽  
History Of ◽  
Mtdna Diversity

Abstract Comparison of the levels of nucleotide diversity in humans and apes may provide much insight into the mechanisms of maintenance of DNA polymorphism and the demographic history of these organisms. In the past, abundant mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) polymorphism data indicated that nucleotide diversity (π) is more than threefold higher in chimpanzees than in humans. Furthermore, it has recently been claimed, on the basis of limited data, that this is also true for nuclear DNA. In this study we sequenced 50 noncoding, nonrepetitive DNA segments randomly chosen from the nuclear genome in 9 bonobos and 17 chimpanzees. Surprisingly, the π value for bonobos is only 0.078%, even somewhat lower than that (0.088%) for humans for the same 50 segments. The π values are 0.092, 0.130, and 0.082% for East, Central, and West African chimpanzees, respectively, and 0.132% for all chimpanzees. These values are similar to or at most only 1.5 times higher than that for humans. The much larger difference in mtDNA diversity than in nuclear DNA diversity between humans and chimpanzees is puzzling. We speculate that it is due mainly to a reduction in effective population size (Ne) in the human lineage after the human-chimpanzee divergence, because a reduction in Ne has a stronger effect on mtDNA diversity than on nuclear DNA diversity.

scholarly journals Extreme Floods in the Eastern Part of Europe: Large-Scale Drivers and Associated Impacts

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1122
Author(s):  
Monica Ionita ◽  
Viorica Nagavciuc
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

The role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in producing heavy rainfall events and floods in the eastern part of Europe, with a special focus on the Siret and Prut catchment areas (Romania), is analyzed in this study. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of the most extreme flood events (e.g., July 2008, June–July 2010, and June 2020) is given. Analysis of the largest flood events indicates that the flood peaks have been preceded up to 6 days in advance by intrusions of high Potential Vorticity (PV) anomalies toward the southeastern part of Europe, persistent cut-off lows over the analyzed region, and increased water vapor transport over the catchment areas of Siret and Prut Rivers. The vertically integrated water vapor transport prior to the flood peak exceeds 300 kg m−1 s−1, leading to heavy rainfall events. We also show that the implementation of the Flood Management Plan in Romania had positive results during the 2020 flood event compared with the other flood events, when the authorities took several precaution measurements that mitigated in a better way the socio-economic impact and risks of the flood event. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport as drivers of extreme flooding in the eastern part of Europe and could lead to a better flood forecast and flood risk management.

Estimating time to onset of swine influenza symptoms after initial novel A(H1N1v) viral infection

2010 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
pp. 1418-1424 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. D. M. TOM ◽  
A. J. VAN HOEK ◽  
R. PEBODY ◽  
J. McMENAMIN ◽  
C. ROBERTSON ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Incubation Time ◽  
Time Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Swine Influenza ◽  
Interval Censoring ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
History Of ◽  
Influenza Case ◽  
Time To Onset

SUMMARYCharacterization of the incubation time from infection to onset is important for understanding the natural history of infectious diseases. Attempts to estimate the incubation time distribution for novel A(H1N1v) have been, up to now, based on limited data or peculiar samples. We characterized this distribution for a generic group of symptomatic cases using laboratory-confirmed swine influenza case-information. Estimates of the incubation distribution for the pandemic influenza were derived through parametric time-to-event analyses of data on onset of symptoms and exposure dates, accounting for interval censoring. We estimated a mean of about 1·6–1·7 days with a standard deviation of 2 days for the incubation time distribution in those who became symptomatic after infection with the A(H1N1v) virus strain. Separate analyses for the <15 years and ⩾15 years age groups showed a significant (P<0·02) difference with a longer mean incubation time in the older age group.

Can urban pluvial flooding be predicted by open spatial data and weather data?

2016 ◽  
Vol 85 ◽  
pp. 156-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Gaitan ◽  
N.C. van de Giesen ◽  
J.A.E. ten Veldhuis
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
Urban Pluvial Flooding

scholarly journals Mesoscale Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Episodes from SoWMEX/TiMREX

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Wen-Chau Lee
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Mesoscale Analysis ◽  
Mesoscale Structure ◽  
Profound Influence ◽  
Moist Condition ◽  
Virtual Temperature ◽  
Convection Initiation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Abstract The authors analyze the mesoscale structure accompanying two multiday periods of heavy rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon Experiment and the Terrain-Induced Mesoscale Rainfall Experiment conducted over and near Taiwan during May and June 2008. Each period is about 5–6 days long with episodic heavy rainfall events within. These events are shown to correspond primarily to periods when well-defined frontal boundaries are established near the coast. The boundaries are typically 1 km deep or less and feature contrasts of virtual temperature of only 2°–3°C. Yet, owing to the extremely moist condition of the upstream conditionally unstable air, these boundaries appear to exert a profound influence on convection initiation or intensification near the coast. Furthermore, the boundaries, once established, are long lived, possibly reinforced through cool downdrafts and prolonged by the absence of diurnal heating over land in generally cloudy conditions. These boundaries are linked phenomenologically with coastal fronts that occur at higher latitudes.

scholarly journals An Improved Weighting Method of Time-Lag-Ensemble Averaging for Hourly Precipitation Forecasts and Its Application in a Typhoon-Induced Heavy Rainfall Event

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 875
Author(s):  
Li Zhou ◽  
Lin Xu ◽  
Mingcai Lan ◽  
Jingjing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Ensemble Averaging ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Heavy rainfall events often cause great societal and economic impacts. The prediction ability of traditional extrapolation techniques decreases rapidly with the increase in the lead time. Moreover, deficiencies of high-resolution numerical models and high-frequency data assimilation will increase the prediction uncertainty. To address these shortcomings, based on the hourly precipitation prediction of Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast (GRAPES-CHAF) and Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR), we present an improved weighting method of time-lag-ensemble averaging for hourly precipitation forecast which gives more weight to heavy rainfall and can quickly select the optimal ensemble members for forecasting. In addition, by using the cross-magnitude weight (CMW) method, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC), the verification results of hourly precipitation forecast for next six hours in Hunan Province during the 2019 typhoon Bailu case and heavy rainfall events from April to September in 2020 show that the revised forecast method can more accurately capture the characteristics of the hourly short-range precipitation forecast and improve the forecast accuracy and the probability of detection of heavy rainfall.

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