Future Property Risk Estimation For Wildfire In Louisiana, USA

Background: Wildfire is an important but understudied natural hazard. As with other natural hazards, wildfire research is all too often conducted at too broad a spatial scale to identify local or regional patterns. This study addresses these gaps by examining the current and future wildfire property risk at the census-block level in Louisiana, a U.S. state with relatively dense population and substantial vulnerability to loss from this hazard, despite its wet climate. Here wildfire risk is defined as the product of exposure and vulnerability to the hazard, where exposure is a function of the historical and anticipated future wildfire frequency and extent, and the latter is a function of population, structure and content property value, damage probability, and percent of property damaged. Results: Historical (1992−2015) average annual statewide property loss due to wildfire was $5,556,389 (2010$), with the greatest risk to wildfire in southwestern inland, east-central, extreme northwestern, and coastal southwestern Louisiana. Based on existing climate and environmental model output, this research projects that wildfire will increase by 25 percent by 2050 in Louisiana from current values. When combined with projections of population and property value, it is determined that the geographic distribution of risk by 2050 will remain similar to that today – with highest risk in southwestern inland Louisiana and east-central Louisiana. However, the magnitude of risk will increase across the state, especially in those areas. Projected annual loss will be $11,167,496 by 2050 (2010$) due to population growth, intensification of development at the wildland-urban interface, and climate change. The wildfire-induced property damage is notable because it is projected to increase by 101 percent. These values do not include crop, forestry, or indirect losses (e.g., cost of evacuation and missed time at work), which are likely to be substantial. Conclusions: The results suggest that increased efforts are needed to contain wildfires, to reduce the future risk. Otherwise, wildfire managers, environmental planners, actuaries, community leaders, and individual property owners in Louisiana will need to anticipate and budget for additional efforts to mitigate the economic (and presumably other) impacts associated with a substantial and increasing hazard that often goes underestimated.

The English Connection: Jacob and Johann Philipp Breyne, James Petiver and Plants: The Correspondence between the Breynes and Petiver from the 1690s

The article discusses the hitherto unknown correspondence between the Danzig (present-day Gdańsk) botanist Jacob Breyne, his son Johann Philipp Breyne, and James Petiver in the last decade of the seventeenth century. Their correspondence documents contacts between one of the most important naturalists of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the second half of the seventeenth century and members of the Royal Society. The content of the letters reveals how books, naturalia and various artefacts circulated between Western and East-Central Europe. It also reveals the principles of reciprocity and friendship followed by those who conducted inquiries into natural history.

Trends and periodicities of monsoon and annual rainfall districts of Haryana State and Delhi

Analysis of southwest monsoon (June to September) and annual rainfall of 12 districts of Haryana and Delhi based on fixed number of raingauge stations (36) has been made for 90-year period (1901-1990) in order to search for trends and periodicities in the rainfall. It is seen that monsoon and annual rainfall have a similar variability and is least where rainfall is maximum. It is also observed that frequency distribution of monsoon rainfall is not normal in two districts, viz., Kurukshetra and Sirsa. Positive trend is noticed in monsoon rainfall of Rohtak and Kurukshetra and annual rainfall of Delhi. Increase in the mean rainfall for 45 years period showed a gradient from first to second from the east central to the western parts of the State with a maximum value over the east central parts. Low-pass filter analysis suggests that the trend is not linear but oscillatory consisting of periods of 10years or more. The spectral analysis indicates a significant cycle of range 5.5 to 8 ..6 years mainly in eastern and southwestern districts of the State. QBO IS also observed over some districts of the State.

An annotated checklist of groundwater Cyclopoida and Harpacticoida (Crustacea, Copepoda) from Romania with notes on their distribution and ecology

Romania, by its position in East-Central Europe has a complex geological history, high landscape heterogeneity and variable climatic conditions, ranging from temperate-continental in the northeast to sub-Mediterranean in the southwest. These conditions have created repeated waves of colonisation of groundwater by copepods, which raise particular interest in this group from a biogeographical perspective. The earliest investigations on groundwater copepods, dating back to the beginning of the 19th century, have resulted in a wealth of information on the richness of this group, making Romania one of the best studied regions from this perspective in Europe. Groundwater copepods in Romania are currently represented by 107 species and subspecies, of which 60 are harpacticoids (56%) and 47 are cyclopoids (43.9%). Of these, 50.5% are strict stygobites (32.7% harpacticoids and 17.7% cyclopoids). Among stygobite copepods 29 species (35 harpacticoids and 19 cyclopoids) are endemic to the country. Almost 86% of the species are single-site endemics (single cave, or single hyporheic or phreatic site) and the rest are restricted in distribution to a single aquifer or hydrographic basin. The aim of the present checklist represents a significant contribution to the knowledge of groundwater copepods in Romania and provides a sound baseline for future comparative faunal studies focused on the affinities and origins of copepods and the analysis of their biogeographical distribution patterns at regional and continental scales.

A kelet-közép-európai városrégiók átalakulása a posztfordi korban – elméleti alapok

The post-Fordist and post-socialist transition had a significant impact on the development of cities in East Central Europe. One of the most spectacular processes in the development of postsocialist cities has been the transformation of the inner areas and outskirts of the urban regions. In the inner areas, after the regime change, urban regeneration gained momentum and thanks to the prevailing neoliberal urban policies almost without exception triggered gentrification processes in the neighbourhoods. Outside the administrative boundaries of the city, in the agglomeration zone and in the more remote areas of the urban region, suburbanisation and urban sprawl have determined the development process. As a consequence, the previously compact urban fabric of post-socialist cities slowly disintegrated and cities became more and more fragmented. The aim of this theoretical study is to explore the most important processes of urban transformation in the post-Fordist era. We briefly introduce the theoretical background of metropoliszation, suburbanization and urban sprawl, as well as the main characteristics of commuting and land use. The role of urban regeneration and fragmentation in the urban fabric will be highlighted as well.

Not the Far-Right Only: Which Parties Occupy the Niche of Cultural Protectionism in the EU Countries?

In the 2010s many moderate parties in Europe began to use the agenda of the far-rights, competing with them on the same field. This article is devoted to the problem of inter-party competition in European countries amidst the rise of far-right parties. We also intended to check if the far-right profile is the same for all EU countries. To achieve the goal of the study, we used two databases on party positioning - MARPOR (Comparative Manifesto Project) and CHES (Chapel Hill Expert Survey). The study revealed that the consolidated family of the far-rights exists only in the countries of North-Western Europe, while in the countries of East-Central Europe the agenda of the far-rights is less consolidated and regionally heterogeneous. The mainstream competitors of the far-rights included mostly conservatives in North-Western Europe, and various parties, including the Social Democrats, in East-Central Europe. The study confirmed the hypothesis about the serious influence of the far-rights on mainstream politics. At the same time, it questioned the traditional approach which attributes the far-right profile only to far-right parties and ignores both regional differences and the factor of spatial competition.