Prediction of infection and death ratio of CoVID-19 virus in Turkey by using artificial neural network (ANN)

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andaç Batur Çolak

Background: For the first time in December 2019 as reported in the Whuan city of China COVID-19 deadly virus, spread rapidly around the world and the first cases were seen in Turkey on March 11, 2020. On the same day, a pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization due to the rapid spread of the disease throughout the world. Methods: In this study, a multilayered perception feed-forward back propagation neural network has been designed for predicting the spread and mortality rate of COVID-19 virus in Turkey. COVID-19 data from six different countries were used in the design of the artificial neural network, which has 15 neurons in its hidden layer. 70% of these optimized data were used for training, 20% for validation and 10% for testing. Results: The resulting simulation results, COVID-19 virus in Turkey between 20 and 37 days showed the fastest to rise. The number of cases for the 20th day was predicted to be 13.845 and the 51st day for the 37th day. Conclusion: As for the death rate, it was predicted that a rapid rise on the 20th day would start and a slowdown around the 43rd day and progress towards the zero case point. The death rate for the 20th day was predicted to be 170 and the 43rd day for the 1.960s.

2011 ◽  
Vol 474-476 ◽  
pp. 681-686
Author(s):  
Xiao Rui Zhang ◽  
Gang Chen

Urban land use suitability evaluation is the basic work of urban land use planning and management. The evaluation method is a core in urban land use suitability evaluation. Traditional urban land use suitability evaluation methods are GIS-based methods which often can not get satisfactory results for the complex nonlinear urban land use system. Artificial neural network is a frontier theory of complex non-linearity scientific and artificial intelligence science. It is a new method to evaluate urban land use suitability. This paper took the land use suitability evaluation of Hefei city as an example, building a back propagation neural network with 8 neurous of input layer, 5 neurons of hide layer and 3 neurons of output layer. The analysis shows: the high suitability area is 682.27 km2in Hefei city, being about 8.73% of the total study area; the middle suitability area is 5965.76 km2, or about 76.33% of the total area and the low suitability area is 1167.35 km2, or about 14.94% of the total area. The results reflect the actual situation in Hefei city. The study shows that the back propagation neural network model can overcome the shortcomings of traditional evaluation methods. It means that artificial neural network is suitable for urban land use suitability evaluation. This reflects that artificial neural network has great academic value and application prospect in urban land use suitability evaluation. It also reflects that this study can provide a new idea and method for urban land use suitability evaluation.


2011 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 322-326
Author(s):  
Mohammadreza Khanmohammadi ◽  
Amir Bagheri Garmarudi ◽  
Mohammad Babaei Rouchi ◽  
Nafiseh Khoddami

Abstract A method has been established for simultaneous determination of sodium sulfate, sodium carbonate, and sodium tripolyphosphate in detergent washing powder samples based on attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform IR spectrometry in the mid-IR spectral region (800–1550 cm−1). Genetic algorithm (GA) wavelength selection followed by feed forward back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) was the chemometric approach. Root mean square error of prediction for BP-ANN and GA-BP-ANN was 0.0051 and 0.0048, respectively. The proposed method is simple, with no tedious pretreatment step, for simultaneous determination of the above-mentioned components in commercial washing powder samples.


2012 ◽  
Vol 576 ◽  
pp. 91-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erry Yulian Triblas Adesta ◽  
Muataz H.F. Al Hazza ◽  
M.Y. Suprianto ◽  
Muhammad Riza

Machining of hardened steel at high cutting speeds produces high temperatures in the cutting zone, which affects the surface quality and cutting tool life. Thus, predicting the temperature in early stage becomes utmost importance. This research presents a neural network model for predicting the cutting temperature in the CNC end milling process. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was applied as an effective tool for modeling and predicting the cutting temperature. A set of sparse experimental data for finish end milling on AISI H13 at hardness of 48 HRC have been conducted to measure the cutting temperature. The artificial neural network (ANN) was applied to predict the cutting temperature. Twenty hidden layer has been used with feed forward back propagation hierarchical neural networks were designed with Matlab2009b Neural Network Toolbox. The results show a high correlation between the predicted and the observed temperature which indicates the validity of the models.


2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Momeni ◽  
Ramli Nazir ◽  
Danial Jahed Armaghani ◽  
Harnedi Maizir

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; line-height: 200%;">Axial bearing capacity (ABC) of piles is usually determined by static load test (SLT). However, conducting SLT is costly and time-consuming. High strain dynamic pile testing (HSDPT) which is provided by pile driving analyzer (PDA) is a more recent approach for predicting the ABC of piles. In comparison to SLT, PDA test is quick and economical. Implementing feed forward back-propagation artificial neural network (ANN) for solving geotechnical problems has recently gained attention mainly due to its ability in finding complex nonlinear relationships among different parameters. In this study, an ANN-based predictive model for estimating ABC of piles and its distribution is proposed. For network construction purpose, 36 PDA tests were performed on various concrete piles in different project sites. The PDA results, pile geometrical characteristics as well as soil investigation data were used for training the ANN models. Findings indicate the feasibility of ANN in predicting ultimate, shaft and tip bearing resistances of piles. The coefficients of determination, R², equal to 0.941, 0.936, and 0.951 for testing data reveal that the shaft, tip and ultimate bearing capacities of piles predicted by ANN-based model are in close agreement with those of HSDPT. By using sensitivity analysis, it was found that the length and area of the piles are dominant factors in the proposed predictive model.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; line-height: 200%;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; line-height: 200%;"><strong>Resumen</strong></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; line-height: 200%;">La Capacidad Axial de Soporte (ABC, en inglés) de un pilote de construcción se determina usualmente a través de una Prueba de Carga Estática (SLT, inglés). Sin embargo, estas pruebas son costosas y demandan tiempo. La evaluación de las Dinámicas de Alto Esfuerzo de Pilotes (HSDPT, inglés), que la provee el programa de Análisis de Excavación (PDA, inglés), es una forma de aproximación más reciente para preveer la Capacidad Axial de Soporte. En comparación con la Prueba de Cargas Estática, la evaluación PDA es rápida y económica. La implementación de Redes Neuronales Arficiales (ANN, en inglés) que permita resolver problemas geotécnicos ha ganado atención recientemente debido a su posibilidad de hallar relaciones no lineales entre los diferentes parámetros. En este estudio se propone un modelo predictivo ANN para estimar la Capacidad Axial de Soporte de pilotes y su distribución. Para fines de una red de construcción se realizaron 36 pruebas PDA en pilotes de diferentes proyectos. Los resultados de los Análisis de Excavación, las características geométricas de los pilotes, al igual que los datos de investigación del suelo se utilizaron para probar los modelos ANN. Los resultados indican la viabilidad del modelo ANN en predecir la resistencia de los pilotes. Los coeficientes de correlación, R², que alcanzaron 0.941, 09.36 y 0.951 para la evaluación de los datos, revelan que la capacidad del pilotaje en el último rodamiento, en el cojinete del eje y en la punta que se predijeron con el modelo ANN concuerda con las establecidas a través del HSDPT. A través del análisis de respuesta se determinó que la longitud y el área de los pilotes son factores dominantes en el modelo predictivo propuesto.</p>


Author(s):  
Nicholas Christakis ◽  
Michael Politis ◽  
Panagiotis Tirchas ◽  
Minas Achladianakis ◽  
Eleftherios Avgenikou ◽  
...  

Covid-19 is the most recent strain from the corona virus family that its rapid spread across the globe has caused a pandemic, resulting in over 200,000,000 infections and over 4,000,000 deaths so far. Many countries had to impose full lockdowns, with serious effects in all aspects of everyday life (economic, social etc.). In this paper, a computational framework is introduced, aptly named COVID-LIBERTY, in order to assist the study of the pandemic in Europe. Initially, the mathematics and details of the computational engine of the framework, a feed-forward, back-propagation Artificial Neural Network are presented. 5 European countries with similar population numbers were chosen and we examined the main factors that influence the spread of the virus, in order to be taken into consideration in the simulations. In this way lockdown, seasonal variability and virus effective reproduction were considered. The effectiveness of lockdown in the spread of the virus was examined and the Lockdown Index was introduced. Moreover, the relation of Covid- 19 to seasonal variability was demonstrated and the parametrization of seasonality presented.


Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Zhou Yang ◽  
Unsong Pak ◽  
Cholu Kwon

This research aims to evaluate the calculation accuracy and efficiency of the artificial neural network-based important sampling method (ANN-IS) on reliability of structures such as drum brakes. The finite element analysis (FEA) result is used to establish the ANN sample in ANN-based reliability analysis methods. Because the process of FEA is time-consuming, the ANN sample size has a very important influence on the calculation efficiency. Two types of ANNs used in this study are the radial basis function neural network (RBF) and back propagation neural network (BP). RBF-IS and BP-IS methods are used to conduct reliability analysis on training samples of three different sizes, and the results are compared with several reliability analysis methods based on ANNs. The results show that the probability of failure of the RBF-IS method is closer to that of the Monte-Carlo simulation method (MCS) than those of other methods (including BP-IS). In addition, the RBF-IS method has better calculation efficiency than the other methods considered in this study. This research demonstrates that the RBF-IS method is well suited to structure reliability problems.


2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Turgay Partal

In this study, the wavelet–neural network structure that combines wavelet transform and artificial neural networks has been employed to forecast the river flows of Turkey. Discrete wavelet transforms, which are useful to obtain to the periodic components of the measured data, have significantly positive effects on artificial neural network modeling performance. Generally, the feed-forward back-propagation method was studied with respect to artificial neural network applications to water resources data. In this study, the performance of generalized neural networks and radial basis neural networks were compared with feed-forward back-propagation methods. Six different models were studied for forecasting of monthly river flows. It was seen that the wavelet and feed-forward back-propagation model was superior to the other models in terms of selected performance criteria.


2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-260
Author(s):  
James Abiodun Adeyanju ◽  
John Oluranti Olajide ◽  
Emmanuel Olusola Oke ◽  
Jelili Babatunde Hussein ◽  
Chiamaka Jane Ude

Abstract This study uses artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the thermo-physical properties of deep-fat frying plantain chips (ipekere). The frying was conducted with temperature and time ranged of 150 to 190 °C and 2 to 4 minutes using factorial design. The result revealed that specific heat was most influenced by temperature and time with the value 2.002 kJ/kg°C at 150 °C and 2.5 minutes. The density ranged from 0.997 – 1.005 kg/m3 while thermal diffusivity and conductivity were least affected with 0.192 x 10−6 m2/s and 0.332 W/m°C respectively at 190 °C and 4 minutes. The ANN architecture was developed using Levenberg–Marquardt (TRAINLM) and Feed-forward back propagation algorithm. The experimentation based on the ANN model produced a desirable prediction of the thermo-physical properties through the application of diverse amount of neutrons in the hidden layer. The predictive experimentation of the computational model with R2 ≥ 0.7901 and MSE ≤ 0.1125 does not only show the validity in anticipating the thermo-physical properties, it also indicates the capability of the model to identify a relevant association between frying time, frying temperatures and thermo-physical properties. Hence, to avoid a time consuming and expensive experimental tests, the developed model in this study is efficient in prediction of the thermo-physical properties of deep-fat frying plantain chips.


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