Environmental Run-off Impact Case Study: The Impact of Development and Campus Development of State Islamic University (UIN) Malang

In general insurance, measuring the uncertainty of future loss payments and estimating the claims reserve are primary goals of actuaries. To deal with these tricky tasks, a broad literature is available on deterministic and stochastic approaches, most of which aims at straightforwardly modelling the overall claims reserve. In this paper by an extended, very general and reproducible case-study, we analyze the reserving process by attributing to each cell of the lower part of the run-off triangle a Compound mixed Poisson Process, calibrated upon both the numbers of claims and future average costs and considering as well the dependence among incremental claims. We provide analytically the moments of both incremental payments and the total reserve. Furthermore, we accordingly consider the probability distribution of the claims reserve, which is necessary for the assessment of the Risk Reserve capital requirement in a Solvency II framework. To test the impact of the model under different scenarios, insurers and lines of business, the case study is thoroughly analyzed by exploiting the Fisher-Lange average cost method.

Download Full-text

Factors impacting community’s prioritization towards the benefits of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems: A case study of Nhieu Loc – Thi Nghe sub-basin, Ho Chi Minh City

Science & Technology Development Journal - Social Sciences & Humanities ◽

10.32508/stdjssh.v4i4.604 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. First

Author(s):

Nguyen Hoang My Lan ◽

Ho Huu Loc ◽

Phan Dinh Bich Van ◽

Vo Le Phu ◽

Le Van Trung

Keyword(s):

Statistical Tests ◽

Drainage System ◽

Impact Factors ◽

Urban Drainage ◽

Run Off ◽

Spss Software ◽

The Impact ◽

Priority Levels ◽

Data Processing Methods

Sustainable Urban Drainage System (SUDS) includes various drainage techniques designed to reduce the run-off flow, improve the water quality, and provide amenity or landscape features. However, selecting the appropriate SUDS technique depends on not only the technical characteristics but also the community's perception and preference. Therefore, this study aims to determine the impact factors on the probability of households' prioritization towards SUDS benefits in the context of Nhieu Loc - Thi Nghe sub-basin, including the benefits of flood reduction, environmental enhancement, and landscape improvement. Data processing methods used in this study consist of statistical tests and ordinal regression using SPSS software. The regression results show that the overall accurate prediction rate for the 3 priority levels of SUDS benefits ranges from 50% to 70%. Factors that statistically significantly influence the priority include household income, knowledge of SUDS, frequency of flooding, depth of flooding, the distance to the nearest park, the distance to the nearest water body, and the distance to the nearest flooded location. In particular, the proximity to the nearest park affects the priority choice for all SUDS benefits with the principle that households near the park will probably choose higher priority to SUDS benefits than those living further.

Download Full-text