A Statistical Analysis of the Most Affected Countries by COVID-19 (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayanta Datta ◽  
Prasenjit Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Power Series ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Growth Constant ◽  
Trend Line ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Exponential Trend ◽  
Growth Constants

BACKGROUND It is almost more than six months elapsed since the crisis of COVID-19 pandemic has hit the globe. It becomes utterly crucial for policy formulation to know up to which period and up to what magnitude the disease will impact us. OBJECTIVE Aim of this study is to predict the saturation level of COVID-19 cases in USA, Brazil, India, Russia, Italy and UK. METHODS Trend analysis is used to fit exponential trend line to the weekly cumulative positive cases. Forecasted growth constants obtained by fitting power series trend to the observed values and prediction of weekly cumulative cases done. Growth constant value of 0.0039 (Doubling time 180 days), observed mean, median and maximum reported COVID-19 cases per million for countries with more than 90% recovery is used to obtain saturation levels. RESULTS Italy and UK reached saturation with growth constant values 0.0007 and 0.0025. Brazil and USA projected to achieve saturation by 26 September 2020 and 19 December 2020 with 8.24 and 9.17 million cases. India and Russia expected to reach the saturation by 16 January 2021and 27 February 2021 with 56.72 and 3.86 million cases. CONCLUSIONS The USA and Russia are predicted to reach saturation due to decrease in growth constant value. Growth constant values for Brazil and India are high and these countries are estimated to reach saturation by infecting the maximum reported per million population. It is therefore eternally essential to take more proactive decisions and to test more and isolate patients effectively to contain COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL Nil

How Cuba Survived Sanctions and the Lessons for Zimbabwe

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 172-195
Author(s):  
Mediel Hove ◽  
Enock Ndawana ◽  
Munetsi Anthony Nhemachena
Keyword(s):  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Central Argument

This article discusses how Cuba survived the economic sanctions that were imposed by the USA and the lessons that Zimbabwe and other sanctioned countries can glean. Using the subaltern framework for analysis, the article’s central argument is that Cuba survived the US-imposed economic embargo through sound planning, rigorous policy formulation, and implementation in the critical sectors of education and health, including tactical diplomatic maneuvers among other strategies. It concludes that Cuba’s survival against the US economic embargo provides a number of significant lessons for many countries, including Zimbabwe facing economic sanctions from powerful states.

scholarly journals Classification and Statistical Trend Analysis in Detecting Glaucomatous Visual Field Progression

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Cristiana Valente ◽  
Elisa D’Alessandro ◽  
Michele Iester
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Visual Field ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Open Angle Glaucoma ◽  
Mean Deviation ◽  
Threshold Strategy ◽  
Visual Field Progression ◽  
The Mean

Aim. To evaluate the agreement between different methods in detection of glaucomatous visual field progression using two classification-based methods and four statistical approaches based on trend analysis. Methods. This is a retrospective and longitudinal study. Twenty Caucasian patients (mean age 73.8 ± 13.43 years) with open-angle glaucoma were recruited in the study. Each visual field was assessed by Humphrey Field Analyzer, program SITA standard 30-2 or 24-2 (Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc., Dublin, CA). Full threshold strategy was also accepted for baseline tests. Progression was analyzed by using Hodapp–Parrish–Anderson classification and the Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study visual field defect score. For the statistical analysis, linear regression (r2) was calculated for mean deviation (MD), pattern standard deviation (PSD), and visual field index (VFI), and when it was significant, each series of visual field was considered progressive. We also used Progressor to look for a significant progression of each visual field series. The agreement between methods, based on statistical analysis and classification, was evaluated using a weighted kappa statistic. Results. Thirty-eight visual field series were analyzed. The mean follow-up time was 6.2 ± 1.53 years (mean ± standard deviation). At baseline, the mean MD was −7.34 ± 7.18 dB; at the end of the follow-up, the mean MD was −9.25 ± 8.65 dB; this difference was statistically significant (p<0.001). The agreement to detect progression was fair between all methods based on statistical analysis and classification except for PSD r2. A substantial agreement (κ = 0.698 ± 0.126) was found between MD r2 and VFI r2. With the use of all the statistical analysis, there was a better time-saving. Conclusions. The best agreement to detect progression was found between MD r2 and VFI r2. VFI r2 showed the best agreement with all the other methods. GPA2 can help ophthalmologists to detect glaucoma progression and to help in treatment decisions. PSD r2 was the worse method to detect progression.

A National Strategy for Natural Disaster Reduction: A Call for Coordination of Disaster Reduction Activities

1995 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 393-414
Author(s):  
M. A. Cassaro ◽  
K. Johnson ◽  
J. Cooper ◽  
J. Beavers ◽  
C. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Professional Associations ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Disaster Reduction ◽  
Development Education ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
The Usa ◽  
National Infrastructure ◽  
And Training

A need exists to improve the effectiveness of the network of communities, organizations, and agencies that are concerned with reducing the negative impact of natural hazards in the USA. The issue is to find ways to integrate community need assessment, research and development, education and training, policy formulation, implementation, and evaluation to improve practices that reduce vulnerability at the community, regional, and national levels. To this end, we propose to create a disaster reduction network that supports a cycle of development and application activities relating to natural hazards mitigation standards, diffusion of loss reduction practice, and consensus building in communities and in technical and professional associations. The expected benefit is a more efficient use of resources and a sustained and effective national infrastructure.

The utilization of trend analysis in the effective monitoring of information security. Part 2: the model

2002 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-11
Author(s):  
Martin Botha ◽  
Rossouw von Solms
Keyword(s):  
Information Security ◽  
Computer Security ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Computer Crime ◽  
Federal Bureau ◽  
Crime Problem ◽  
Federal Bureau Of Investigation ◽  
Computer Hacking ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Control

A survey recently completed by the Computer Security Institute (CSI) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) revealed that corporations, banks, and governments all face a growing threat from computer crime, and in particular computer hacking. Computer hacking activities caused well over US$100 million in losses last year in the USA and the trend toward professional computer crime, such as computer hacking, is on the rise. Different methods are currently used to control the computer crime problem, for example, by controling access to and from a network by implementing a firewall. As the survey highlighted, most of these methods are insufficient. New means and ways which will minimise and control the hacking problem must therefore continuously be researched and defined. Proposes a method, using trend analysis, that could be utilized to minimise and control the hacking problem in an organisation.

Dynamics of food policy formulation in the USA

Food Policy ◽  
1982 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchel B. Wallerstein
Keyword(s):  
Food Policy ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
The Usa

Modelling of the Growth of Fe2B Layers in AISI 1018 Steel

2012 ◽  
Vol 323-325 ◽  
pp. 401-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Nait Abdellah ◽  
Mourad Keddam ◽  
A. Elias
Keyword(s):  
Present Model ◽  
Mass Balance Equation ◽  
Growth Constant ◽  
Parabolic Growth ◽  
Solid Diffusion ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Growth Constants ◽  
Good Concordance ◽  
Parabolic Growth Constant ◽  
Kinetics Of

In this work, a simulation of the growth kinetics of layers on AISI 1018 steel was done by means of a kinetic model. This model considers a solid diffusion of boron into a semi-infinite medium where the boron solubility in the Fe phase depends on the process temperature. An expression of the parabolic growth constant was then obtained through an application of the mass balance equation at the (/substrate) interface. The present model was validated by the experimental data available in the reference work (I. Campos-Silva et al: Kovove Mater. Vol.47 (2009), p.1-9). A good concordance was observed between the experimental parabolic growth constants and the predicted ones by the model for an upper limit of boron in the phase equal to 8.91 wt.% ( as a fitting parameter of the model). In addition, the generated weight gain was estimated at the surface of the borided AISI 1018 steel as a function of the upper limit of boron in the phase and the temperature.

The lichenicolous Phoma species (coelomycetes) on Cladonia

2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul DIEDERICH ◽  
Jana KOCOURKOVÁ ◽  
Javier ETAYO ◽  
Mikhail ZHURBENKO
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Widespread Species ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Usa

Abstract:The lichenicolous Phoma species on Cladonia are revised. A statistical analysis of the conidial size suggests that three species are involved: P. cladoniicola sp. nov. a common and widespread species in the Northern Hemisphere occurring on a wide range of Cladonia species; P. foliaceiphila sp. nov. known from C. foliacea and C. fimbriata in Europe; and P. grumantiana sp. nov. known from C. symphycarpia and C. mateocyatha in Svalbard and the USA.

scholarly journals Trap method in ensuring data security

2019 ◽  
pp. 189-198
Author(s):  
D A Shkirdov ◽  
E S Sagatov ◽  
P S Dmitrenko
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Data Security ◽  
Remote Access ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Geographically Distributed ◽  
Rank Distributions

This paper presents the results of data analysis from a geographically distributed honeypot network. Such honeypot servers were deployed in Samara, Rostov on Don, Crimea and the USA two years ago. Methods for processing statistics are discussed in detail for secure remote access SSH. Lists of attacking addresses are highlighted, and their geographical affiliation is determined. Rank distributions were used as the basis for statistical analysis. The intensity of requests to each of the 10 installed services was then calculated.

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