USING LOGARITHMIC AND POWER EQUATIONS TO PREDICT THE VOLUME OF TRANSPORTED GOODS BY ROAD IN ST. PETERSBURG

The article presents an analysis of the transported goods by motor transport of St. Petersburg and their forecast until 2030 using the Trend Line program, which is included as the MS Excel database software. This analysis was based on statistical data for the period from 2000 to 2020. The obtained equations showed that the logarithmic and power equations should be used in the forecast, on the basis of which the analysis was carried out until 2030.

Malaysian and Italian trend line for Covid-19: A study on trend analysis

The first objective of this study was to evaluate trend line pattern, obtain the appropriate statistical equation model, and predict individual numbers infected by Covid-19. The second objective is to obtain a predictive equation model and forecast death rate for Malaysia and Italy. Malaysia's first positive case Covid-19 recorded January 24, 2020, consisting of three cases. Collected from January 24 to March 29, 2020. Sixty-six day-observations, based on their trend line pattern, earned special attention. Although the first positive case was identified on January 31, 2020, involving two patients. From January 31 to March 29, 2020, approximately 59 observations were collected from Italy. On 18 March 2020, the pattern will contrast with the Malaysian Movement Control Order (MCO). Malaysia and Italy collect death figures. A similar methodology will be applied to find the best-fitted model that fits both countries' death-number scenario. In Italy, the number of Covid-19-infected patients rises and meets quadratic trend line patterns. This induces extreme public distress and diversion. The quadratic trend line series analysed individual Covid-19-infected results. After March 18, 2020, it will continue to use a linear pattern. However, trend deaths also follow quadratic trend line pattern. Trend-line quadratic matched Italy's results. The quadratic line-of-trend model projection demonstrated dominance in estimating infected Covid-19. The quadratic death line from daily death collection data also showed superiority in estimating death number. The fitted quadratic model is better fitted in the Malaysian case, but the pattern shifts to linear trend line after MCO is implemented.

Thermodynamic properties of alloys binary In—Pr (Nd) and ternary In—Pr (Nd)—Ni systems

The thermochemical properties of In—Pr system melts in the range of compositions 0 < xIn < 0,4 and In—Nd in the whole concentration range at 1573 ± 1 K were investigated by isoperibolic calorimetry. The obtained data for the In—Pr system melts were extrapolated to the unexplored concentration interval, taking into account that at xPr = 1 the integral and partial mixing for Pr enthalpy are equal to zero. It was found that the first partial for Pr and the minimum enthalpy of mixing are equal to –139 ± 11 and –40,3 ± 0,2 kJ / mol, respectively. For the In—Nd system the first partial for In and Nd, the minimum enthalpy of mixing is equal to −131,7 ± 11, −140,6 ± 12 і –43,3  0,2 kJ / mol, respectively. Comparison of ΔHmin, melts of the five previously studied In—Ln systems from the ordinal number Ln (zLn) together with the data obtained in this work showed that they are described by a single trend line. For ΔHmin of melts of In—Eu (Yb) systems there are very insignificant deviations from the trend line. But for the size factor, these deviations from the trend line are more significant. The enthalpies of formation of some intermetallics of In—Ln systems are known, and most of them belong to the compound LnIn3. But there is no complete agreement between these data. The results of the most modern work show less dependence on the serial number of lanthanide and are more exothermic for heavy lanthanides, compared with other data. Keywords: thermochemical properties, compounds, melts, In, Pr, Nd.

Core-Derived Velocity Systematics, Mississippian Meramec Formation, Oklahoma

Summary Elastic wave velocities are commonly used to predict porosity, mineralogy, and lithology from formation properties. When only P-wave sonics are available in historical wells, systematics for predicting shear velocities are useful for developing elastic models. Although much research has been done on conventional reservoir velocity systematics, the equivalency for unconventional formations is still a work in progress. There has also been a limited number of research studies with laboratory measures published. Using laboratory pulse transmission ultrasonic data, we created a Vp-Vs systematic for the Meramec Formation in this study. The effects of porosity and mineralogy on velocities are explored, as well as a comparison of Meramec velocity systematics with well-established literature systematics. Vp and Vs measurements were taken on 385 dodecane-saturated core samples from seven Meramec wells (106 vertical and 279 horizontal plugs). S-wave and P-wave anisotropy in Meramec Formation samples used in this study are typically less than 10%. Each sample was also tested for porosity and mineralogy. We find that velocities are more sensitive to porosity than mineralogy by a factor of 10. Below are our equations for predicting Vp and Vs (in km/s), when only clay content and porosity are known. In these equations, φ is the volume fraction pores, and Clays is the weight fraction of clay. These equations are for those samples in which there is low P-wave and S-wave anisotropies:(1)Vp=6.4−1.2*Clays−15.4*φ(R2=0.5),(2)Vs=3.6−0.5*Clays−5.2*φ(R2=0.4). We suggest two methods for calculating Vs from Vp: Ignoring anisotropy, we combined both Vp and Vs measurements from all vertical plugs and low anisotropy horizontal plugs to create a single shear wave predictor; and considering anisotropy, Vp measurements from horizontal plugs were corrected using Thomsen’s compressional wave anisotropy parameter, after which a shear velocity predictor was generated. The shear wave predictors for dodecane-saturated measurements are as follows (all velocities are km/s):(3)Method 1: Vs= 0.90 + 0.42*Vp (R2=0.7),(4)Method 2: Vs= 0.80 + 0.45*Vp (R2=0.6). The residual and estimated error in Eq. 3 is slightly less than in Eq. 4. Even though there is a significant variance in measurement frequency, the Meramec velocity systematic shows good agreement with dipole wireline measurements using the first equation. The Meramec velocity systematics differ significantly from previously published systematics, such as the trend line by Greenberg and Castagna (1992) and the shale trend line by Vernik et al. (2018). Using the correlations by Greenberg and Castagna (1992) for limestone or dolomite, the shear velocities of the samples in this study cannot be predicted. These data have yielded shear wave systematics, which can be used in wireline and seismic investigations. The results suggest that the method of ignoring anisotropy yields a better Vs estimate than the one that takes anisotropy into account. Using well-established shear wave velocity systematics from the published literature can result in an estimated inaccuracy of greater than 16%. It is important to calibrate velocity systematics to the target formation.

Headline or Trend Line?

Chinese and Russian government officials are keen to publicize their countries’ strategic partnership in emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence. This report evaluates the scope of cooperation between China and Russia as well as relative trends over time in two key metrics of AI development: research publications and investment. The findings expose gaps between aspirations and reality, bringing greater accuracy and nuance to current assessments of Sino-Russian tech cooperation.

The Association of N-terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide with Haemoglobin and Ferritin in Heart Failure Patients

Introduction: The adverse prognosis of heart failure (HF) correlates with both N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and ferritin. The contribution of an underlying inflammatory process in the pathogenesis of HF is not only evidenced by increased ferritin (acute phase reactant), but also a reduced haemoglobin (Hb) due to cytokine-mediated bone marrow suppression. However, it remains unknown if there is a linear relationship between NT-pro BNP with ferritin and Hb levels. Objective: To determine an association between very elevated levels of NT-proBNP (>10,000pg/ ml) with Hb and ferritin in patients with HF. Methods: A retrospective, cross-sectional study to evaluate levels of ferritin and Hb among patients with very high NT-proBNP levels (>10,000pg/ml) treated at a district hospital serving a population of 500,000 people. Inclusion criteria: in-patient between October to December 2020, diagnosis of HF, NT-proBNP level >10,000 pg/ml, measured haemoglobin and ferritin level within 7 days of NT-proBNP measurement. Results: Forty-five patients met all of the inclusion criteria. Mean age 81 years ± 12 years. There was a positive correlation between NT- proBNP with ferritin and a negative correlation between NT-proBNP and Hb. With NT-proBNP on the x-axis and Hb on the y-axis, the trend line equated y = -0.0003x + 124.88. With NT-proBNP on the x-axis and ferritin on the y-axis, the trend line equated y = 0.0043x + 311.6. Conclusion: With rising levels of NT-proBNP, Hb levels decrease and ferritin levels increase in a linear manner, simultaneously. Larger studies are required to confirm this observation and to investigate the clinical implications of these findings.

FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CULTURAL ENTERPRISES IN THE BALTIC STATES AND UKRAINE

The purpose of the paper is to forecast the development of cultural enterprises in the Baltic states and Ukraine. The article identifies the practical aspect. The enterprises of the cultural sector of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine are analyzed. The development of cultural enterprises of these countries is presented graphically. The forecast is made. The trend line shows the geometric representation of the average values of the analyzed indicators obtained using any mathematical function. The displayed value of the approximation’s reliability shows the compliance’s degree of the trend model with the original data, as a forecast of cultural enterprises. Methodology. The following research methods were used: the method of generalization of theoretical knowledge was used to form the authors’ approach to the definition of terms; tabular method, analysis, which was used to estimate the number and average size of enterprises in the field of culture in the Baltic states and Ukraine; the graphic method was used for the number of cultural enterprises in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine; the exponential method was used when constructing a trend line; the approximation method was used for the prediction equation; extrapolation method was used to calculate the projected number and the average size of enterprises in the cultural sectors in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine. Results. The forecast is based on the number of cultural enterprises per capita in the Baltic states and Ukraine. Conclusions are made and proposals for improving the activities of the cultural sector in the leading countries of the world are presented. The study is based on a review of the literature, scientific articles on the development of cultural enterprises in the Baltic states and Ukraine. Practical implications. Forecasting the development of cultural enterprises will make it possible to predict activities and avoid miscalculations in the area of the Baltic states and Ukraine. Value/originality. The results of this study provide an opportunity to further make a rating assessment for 2021 and a projected rating assessment of cultural enterprises in the Baltic states and Ukraine. This will provide an opportunity to learn about the level of development of Ukraine in comparison with leading European countries.

EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT: THE CASE OF MONITORING OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE STATE TARGET PROGRAM IN THE MEDICAL FIELD

The practical principles of using the method of earned value management of public sphere projects on the example of monitoring of the implementation of the National Targeted Social Program to Combat Tuberculosis for 2012–2016 are considered. The essence of this method is revealed, the main directions and areas of its use in project management by such institutions as the US Department of Defense and the Department of Transportation, NASA are investigated. It is noted that the method is not mentioned in any methodological document for the development and monitoring of domestic target programs. Thus, in order to substantiate the feasibility of using the method of earned value management to control and monitor the implementation of project actions in the public sector of Ukraine, a practical example of its use to control costs during the implementation of the domestic state target program is demonstrated. For this purpose, the planned and reported indicators of the National Targeted Social Program to Combat Tuberculosis are compared with the basic indicators of the method of earned value and based on them the forecast values of the required indicators are obtained by constructing a trend line in Microsoft Excel. The obtained forecast values are analyzed according to the parameter of deviation from the actual performance of this program. It is proved that the forecast models obtained on the basis of the trend line are able to adequately describe the dynamics of project work in the public sector, including forecasting the possible volume of their funding. Further prospects for the use of the method of earned value management for monitoring and control of projects and programs in the public sphere are identified.

A novel method for fracture pressure prediction in shallow formation during deep-water drilling

A large numbers of deep-water drilling practices have shown that more than 60% of deep-water wells have the complex leak-off during the drilling process, which poses great difficulties and challenges for the safety and operation time of deep-water drilling. The purpose of this article is to establish a method for predicting the fracture pressure in shallow formations. In this study, the deep-water shallow formation was divided into the upper unconsolidated soil layer and the lower diagenetic rock layer according to the geotechnical distribution characteristics of the deep-water shallow formation. The location of the transition soil/rock layer zone was determined using the upper soil layer density trend line and the lower rock layer density log data regression trend line. The deep-water shallow fracture pressure prediction model was established based the soil/rock transition zone. Shear failure criterion was used above the transition zone and tensile failure criterion is used below the transition zone. The shallow fracture pressure of 6 drilled exploratory wells in the X block from the South China Sea were calculated using this new method and the calculation errors were all less than 3.18%. Moreover, the shallow fracture pressure body in this block was established using the Kriging interpolation method based on 6 drilled exploratory wells data. This shallow fracture pressure body established here were used to predict 9 development wells shallow fracture pressure with a predictive error less than 1.7% and there were no drilling accidents. The case study demonstrates that the new model can significantly improve the prediction accuracy, has good prospects for popularization and application.

Thermodynamic properties of alloys In—Tb system

The method of isoportic calorimetry investigated the thermochemical properties of the melt In—Tb system in the range of compositions 0 < xIn < 0,4 at 1625 ± 1 K. The obtained data were extrapolated on a non-investigated concentration interval, given that when xTb = 1 integral and partial to Tb enthalpia mixing is zero. It was established that the first partial for Terbium and the minimum enthalpy of mixing is –145 ± 7 and –40,1 ± 0,2 kJ/mol respectively. Comparison of ΔHmin, the melt of five previously investigated In—Ln systems from the serial number Ln (zLn), together with the data obtained in this papper, showed that they are described by one trend line. For ΔHmin In—Eu (Yb) melts (Yb) are very slight deviations from the trend line. But for dimensional factor, these deviations from the trend line are more significant. Enthalpia of the formation of some In—Ln intermetallides are known, with most of them relate to the LnIn3 compound. But there is no full reconciliation between these data. The results of the most modern work exhibit less dependence on the serial number of lanthanides and are more exothermic for heavy lanthanides, compared with other data. Comparing thermochemical properties of double Sn (Sb) —REM melt systems. It has been established that the energy of the interaction between the data p-elements and REM increases in such a sequence: In-REM → Sn—REM → Sb—REM. This is due to the fact that the stibium is the best acceptor of electrons. Keywords: thermochemical properties, melts, compounds, In, Tb.