scholarly journals Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Benneyan ◽  
Christopher Gehrke ◽  
Iulian Ilies ◽  
Nicole Nehls
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
University Campuses ◽  
College And University ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
College And University Campuses ◽  
Risk Communities

BACKGROUND Significant uncertainty has existed about the safety of reopening college and university campuses before the COVID-19 pandemic is better controlled. Moreover, little is known about the effects that on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities. OBJECTIVE We aimed to estimate the range of potential community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality under various university reopening plans and uncertainties. METHODS We developed campus-only, community-only, and campus × community epidemic differential equations and agent-based models, with inputs estimated via published and grey literature, expert opinion, and parameter search algorithms. Campus opening plans (spanning fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites and publications. Additional student and community exposures, infections, and mortality over 16-week semesters were estimated under each scenario, with 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals computed to omit extreme outliers. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to inform potential effective interventions. RESULTS Predicted 16-week campus and additional community exposures, infections, and mortality for the base case with no precautions (or negligible compliance) varied significantly from their medians (4- to 10-fold). Over 5% of on-campus students were infected after a mean of 76 (SD 17) days, with the greatest increase (first inflection point) occurring on average on day 84 (SD 10.2 days) of the semester and with total additional community exposures, infections, and mortality ranging from 1-187, 13-820, and 1-21 per 10,000 residents, respectively. Reopening precautions reduced infections by 24%-26% and mortality by 36%-50% in both populations. Beyond campus and community reproductive numbers, sensitivity analysis indicated no dominant factors that interventions could primarily target to reduce the magnitude and variability in outcomes, suggesting the importance of comprehensive public health measures and surveillance. CONCLUSIONS Community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality resulting from reopening campuses are highly unpredictable regardless of precautions. Public health implications include the need for effective surveillance and flexible campus operations.

scholarly journals Potential Community and Campus Covid-19 Outcomes Under University and College Reopening Scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James C Benneyan ◽  
Christopher Gehrke ◽  
Iulian Ilies ◽  
Nicole Nehls
Keyword(s):  
Grey Literature ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
University Campuses ◽  
College And University ◽  
Contact Frequency ◽  
Virus Attack ◽  
Extreme Outlier

Background: Significant uncertainty exists in many countries about the safety of, and best strategies for, reopening college and university campuses until the Covid-19 pandemic is better controlled. Little also is known about the effects on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities. We aimed to estimate potential community and campus Covid-19 exposures, infections, and mortality due to various university reopening and precaution plans under current ranges of assumptions and uncertainties. Methods: We developed and calibrated campus-only, community-only, and campus-x-community epidemic differential equation and agent-based models. Input parameters for campus and surrounding communities were estimated via published and grey literature, scenario development, expert opinion, accuracy optimization algorithms, and Monte Carlo simulation; models were cross-validated against each other using February-June 2020 data from heterogeneous U.S. counties and states. Campus opening plans (spanning various fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites and publications. All scenarios were simulated assuming 16-week semesters and estimated ranges for Covid-19 prevalence among community residents and arriving students, precaution compliance, contact frequency, virus attack rates, and tracing and isolation effectiveness. Additional student and community exposures, infections, and mortality were estimated under each scenario, with 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals computed to omit extreme outlier scenarios. Factorial analyses were conducted to identify intervention inputs with largest and smallest effects. Results: As a base case with no precautions (or no compliance), predicted 16-week student infections and mortality under normal operations ranged significantly from 471 to 9,495 (median: 2,286, SD: 2,627) and 0 to 123 (median: 9, SD: 14) per 10,000 students, respectively. The maximum active exposures across a semester was 15.76% of all students warranting tracing. Total additional community exposures, infections, and mortality ranged from 1 to 187, 13 to 820, and 1 to 21 per 10,000 residents, respectively. 1% and 5% of on-campus students were infected after a mean (SD) of 11 (3) and 76 (17) days, respectively; >10% students infected by the end of a semester in 34.8% of scenarios, with the greatest increase (first inflection point) occurring on aver-age on day 84 (SD: 10.2 days). Common reopening precautions reduced infections by 24% to 26% and mortality by 36% to 50% in both populations. Uncertainties in many factors, however, produced tremendous variability in all results, ranging from medians by -67% to +342%. Conclusions: Consequences on community and student Covid-19 exposures, infections, and mortality of reopening physical campuses are very highly unpredictable, depending on a combination of random chance, controllable (e.g. physical layouts), and uncontrollable (e.g. human behavior) factors. Implications include needs for criteria to adapt campus operations mid-semester, methods to detect when necessary, and contingency plans for doing so.

Indigenous Student Experience in Higher Education

2022 ◽  
pp. 254-266
Author(s):  
Lawrence F. Camacho ◽  
Arline E. Leon Guerrero
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Student Experiences ◽  
Indigenous Students ◽  
University Campuses ◽  
College And University ◽  
Indigenous Student ◽  
Diverse Student Populations ◽  
Diverse Student ◽  
Education Today ◽  
College And University Campuses

Higher education today is faced with many challenges. However, behind some of those challenges are potential opportunities. One in particular is the focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion, and especially the unpacking of systems and processes that are increasingly becoming more prevalent in higher education's ecosystem of support, mainly for Indigenous students. This is due in large part to the global shift in the rising diverse student populations across college and university campuses. Indigenous students are entering today's evolving college landscape with a clear sense of purpose. To take advantage of this opportunity, institutions are pivoting their support structures to also facilitate their diverse student populations and learning outcomes. They are developing programs to make sense of the Indigenous student experiences, issues, challenges, and are paying special attention to strategies and infrastructures designed to safeguard their student success.

scholarly journals Milk Powder Fortified with Potassium and Phytosterols to Decrease the Risk of Cardiovascular Events among the Adult Population in Malaysia: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Nutrients ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1235
Author(s):  
Anita E. Gandola ◽  
Livia Dainelli ◽  
Diane Zimmermann ◽  
Maznah Dahlui ◽  
Patrick Detzel
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Milk Powder ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Discounted Cost ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Impact

This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the consumption of a milk powder product fortified with potassium (+1050.28 mg/day) and phytosterols (+1200 mg/day) to lower systolic blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, respectively, and, therefore, the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke among the 35–75-year-old population in Malaysia. A Markov model was created against a do-nothing option, from a governmental perspective, and with a time horizon of 40 years. Different data sources, encompassing clinical studies, practice guidelines, grey literature, and statistical yearbooks, were used. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on the base case estimates. With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio equal to international dollars (int$) 22,518.03 per quality-adjusted life-years gained, the intervention can be classified as very cost-effective. If adopted nationwide, it would help prevent at least 13,400 MIs, 30,500 strokes, and more than 10,600 and 17,100 MI- and stroke-related deaths. The discounted cost savings generated for the health care system by those who consume the fortified milk powder would amount to int$8.1 per person, corresponding to 0.7% of the total yearly health expenditure per capita. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Together with other preventive interventions, the consumption of milk powder fortified with potassium and phytosterols represents a cost-effective strategy to attenuate the rapid increase in cardiovascular burden in Malaysia.

Africana Studies Catalytic Consciousness (ASCC) Theory: A Cosmic Understanding of the Impact of Africana Studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (7) ◽  
pp. 635-653
Author(s):  
Serie McDougal
Keyword(s):  
Black Students ◽  
African Descent ◽  
Black Communities ◽  
Africana Studies ◽  
University Campuses ◽  
College And University ◽  
African Black ◽  
The Impact ◽  
College And University Campuses ◽  
The Relationship

Colonization, enslavement, and institutionalized oppression have disrupted the relationship between the educational experiences of Black students and the fate of African/Black communities. Research has shown that Africana studies has demonstrated the capacity to realign the education of Black students in higher education, leading to the advancement of communities of African descent. This analysis aims to present Africana studies catalytic consciousness theory as a framework for determining the effects of taking Africana studies classes on students who self-identify as being of African descent on college and university campuses—particularly at institutions where they are underrepresented. The main elements of the effects of Africana studies are illustrated through the lens of the Dagara cosmic wheel and its elements: fire, water, earth, mineral/stone, and nature/vegetation.

Rage Against the Machine: Berkeley 1964 and the Birth of the Free Speech Movement

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 158-172
Author(s):  
John P. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Civil Rights ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Social Activism ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
University Campuses ◽  
College And University ◽  
Civil Rights Movements ◽  
The University ◽  
College And University Campuses

Abstract This article examines the origins and contributions of the Freedom of Speech Movement (fsm) at the University of California, Berkeley (September-December 1964) that led to widespread social activism on other college and university campuses throughout the us. This article highlights the role of Mario Savio and other participants in the fsm while linking these efforts to the civil rights movements of the late 1950s and early 1960s. The essence of the fsm and its contribution to social activism by middle-class college and university students can be seen in the primary sources provided by Free Speech Movement Digital Archives.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document