scholarly journals The Effects of Current Account Deficits on Economic Growth: Evidence from Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. p59
Author(s):  
Patrick Mugendi Mugo ◽  
Wafula Masai ◽  
Kennedy Osoro
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Deficits

The study examines the effects of current account deficits on economic growth. It also evaluates the direction of causality between the current account deficits and economic growth. These have in the recent past been analyzed in developed and developing economies. In contributing to this ongoing debate, the study applied unit root tests, cointegration analysis, a dynamic vector error correction model and Toda-Yamamoto Granger-causality representation using annual time series data for Kenya from 1980 to 2016. There is evidence that in the long run, current account deficit has significant positive effect on economic growth in Kenya. The evidence suggests a bidirectional causality running from current account deficit to economic growth with feedback effects. The study underscores the need for the authorities to utilize current account deficits to strictly finance public investment to foster gross fixed capital formation, for shared prosperity in Kenya. The evidence underscores the need for more country specific studies in sub-Saharan Africa.

scholarly journals Consumer Spending and Consumer Confidence in South Africa: Cointegration Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-104
Author(s):  
John Khumalo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Long Run

The study uses the time series data covering the period 1980Q1 to 2012Q3 to test the existence of any possible long run relationship between consumer spending and consumer confidence in South Africa. The analysis is done using the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model, with the unit root and the direction of causation also tested before any inference can be concluded on this relationship. The unit root tests using the DF-GLS as well as the Ng-Peron show that consumer spending, consumer confidence and economic growth are integrated of order zero ~I(0). Causality results on the other hand reveal that causation runs from consumer confidence to consumer spending and from economic growth to consumer spending in South Africa. The non-existence of unit root compels the establishment of the long-run relationship that leads us to performing VECM to establish short-run and long-run dynamics. Our results indicate that the positive effect of consumer confidence cannot be refuted in South Africa and that it exerts a significant and positive impact on consumer spending, hence aggregate spending.

Financial development and economic growth in Tanzania: an ARDL and bound testing approach

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saganga Mussa Kapaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Testing Procedures ◽  
Positive Effects

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically weigh the evidence for financial depth, liquidity and efficiency role to economic growth, and test for the existence of cointegration between financial development variables and economic growth in Tanzania. Design/methodology/approach The study used the autoregressive distributed lag model with bound testing procedures. The sample covered yearly time-series data from 1980 to 2017, i.e. 38 years. Findings The results suggest that financial system depth is positively related to economic growth in the short run and that financial system liquidity and efficiency is strongly negatively associated with economic growth both in the short and long run. Further, it is found that financial development is cointegrated with economic growth. Thus, financial reforms and liberalisation have not fully brought the desired positive effects on economic growth yet. Originality/value The study uses principal component analysis to capture specific dimensions within the financial system as an intuitive way to aggregate financial development effects. Unlike studies that included several countries with heterogeneous characteristics, which are sometimes difficulty to homogenise, in recognition of countries’ unique experiences, this study uses data from Tanzania as a specific case. It documents pertinent pieces of evidence for a developing economy necessary for financial policy adjustments post the financial and economic liberalisation and reforms period. It nevertheless sheds light on financial policies for other comparable developing economies during and after both financial and economic liberalisation settings.

scholarly journals Public Debt, Current Account Deficit and Economic Growth: A Study on Indian Context

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-601
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Internal Debt

External debt and internal debt form main components of the public debt structure in India. India’s debt profile shows increasing external debt and simultaneously increasing the deficit in current account which have impact on economic growth of India. Our study assesses the impact of India’s Gross External Debt (GED), Internal Debt (IND) and Current Account Deficit (CAD) on economic growth (GDP) by using time series data from 1998-99 to 2018-19. We intend to find long-run as well as short run relationship between the variables with the help of Eviews software. Stationarity of data is tested by considering Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test statistics and used Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result shows co-integration among the variables with one equation. The result of VECM shows existence of long-run relationship among the variables. But the study fails to find the short-run causality among the variables. The results show external debt (GED), internal debt (IND), and Current Account Deficit (CAD) have negative and statistically insignificant relationship with GDP. It shows increase in public debt and deficit in current account results in decrease in GDP growth.

scholarly journals Analysing the Relationship between Budget Deficit and Current Account Deficit in Namibia

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-43
Author(s):  
Achiles Shifidi ◽  
Jacob M. Nyambe
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
The Government

Is there a causal relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit? This study attempts to explain the significance of the transmission mechanism, (the exchange rate and interest rate) in explaining the twin deficit hypothesis (i.e. budget deficit and current account deficit) in Namibia. The study employed analytical methods of unit roots, cointegration, Granger-causality, and the impulse response function for estimation. In contributing to this ongoing debate, the study used the case of Namibia over the period spanning from 1990-2014 using time series data. Budget deficit and current account deficit proved to be significant. There is a unidirectional causal relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit in Namibia which runs from current account deficit to budget deficit. However, the transmission mechanism proved to be less significant in explaining the twin deficit hypothesis in Namibia.  Having found a positive relationship between current account deficit and budget deficit in Namibia, the government should consider curbing the increasing current account balance as a way of reducing its adverse effect on the budget balance. From this study, it is indicated that stabilising the current account deficit problem could assist in managing the budget deficit problem in Namibia.

The Current Account Deficit Sustainability: An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (4I-II) ◽  
pp. 397-419
Author(s):  
Tahir Mukhtar ◽  
Aliya H. Khan
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Convincing Evidence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Sustainability Issue ◽  
The Current Account

The existence of large and persistent current account deficit is always viewed with great concerns, as it usually leads an economy to a state of insolvency due to building up excessive net foreign debt. As the current account deficit is a persistent feature of Pakistan’s economy, therefore, it becomes essential to empirically investigate, whether this deficit is sustainable or not. To this end, the present study has applied two alternative approaches, namely, the intertemporal approach to the current account and the intertemporal solvency approach, in order to get more convincing evidence on the sustainability issue in Pakistan using the time series data over the period 1960 to 2012. From the perspective of both the approaches, Pakistan’s current account deficit is on a sustainable path and the macroeconomic policies of the country remained effective in securing it from any external sector crisis. JEL Classification: C32, F32, F41 Keywords: Current Account Deficit, Intertemporal Budget Constraint, VAR Model, Cointegration

scholarly journals An Evaluation of the Determinants of Remittances: Evidence from Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Temitope Laniran ◽  
◽  
Daniel Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
High Level

International remittances have grown to become an integral source of finance for development. Existing literature posits that there is an association between remittances and growth in developing countries. Economic growth models highlight the importance of capital accumulation and high level financial flows, the inadequacy of which characterizes developing countries and often explains their fate. It is argued that remittances will provide a panacea to the serious poverty experienced in such developing economies by increasing financial flows and household income, which in turn stimulates consumption, savings, economic growth and ultimately development. The robustness of this relationship is, however, often questioned. Indeed, the propensity of remittances to achieve these aspirations very much hinges on the determining factors motivating the remitters and the magnitude of the remittances. Hence, given the significant flows of remittances to the developing countries, this study attempts an analysis of the determinants of remittances to Nigeria. Key macroeconomic variables with theoretical potentials of influencing the level of remittances received were subjected to econometric model testing using time series data from 1980 to 2013. The results indicate that the level of remittances received is more a function of portfolio motives than other macroeconomic factors.

scholarly journals Twin Deficit Hypothesis: A Case of Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farrah Yasmin
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Adf Test

The prime motive of this study is to scrutinize the twin deficit for annual time series data over the period 1990-2010 for Pakistan. Twin deficit hypothesis expressed that an expansion in budget deficit will ground for rise in current account deficit. To diagnose affiliation amongst couple of variables, applied Unit root test (ADF-test), Johansen cointegration technique, Impulse response function and Granger causality test. The Granger causality demonstrate that the causality direction travel from current account deficit to budget deficit. When current account deficit occurs it leads to budget deficit. So the finding proves that there is a positive connection among both variables. Investigations are most reliable for Pakistan economy. Finally, this study confirms the rapport amid current account deficit and budget deficit.

scholarly journals Does Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from Albania

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Sam Hobbs ◽  
Dimitrios Paparas ◽  
Mostafa E. AboElsoud
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data

Albania has experienced a rapid transition from a centrally planned economy to a mixed economy since the fall of communism in 1989. Policy changes, trade liberalization, and privatization have come about at a rapid pace, allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade to become key components of Albania’s economy. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the relationships among FDI, trade, and economic growth in Albania. Annual time-series data were obtained from the World Bank. Then, the following econometric tests were performed on the variables representing FDI inflows, exports, and GDP as proxies for FDI, trade, and economic growth: the unit root test; the unit root test with a structural break; Johansen cointegration analysis; the error correction model; and the Granger causality test. The results revealed a long-term relationship between FDI, trade, and economic growth. The Granger causality tests found unidirectional causality. Economic growth brought about exports and FDI in the short term but not vice versa. In conclusion, policymakers need to design policies that promote technology-based, export-promoting FDI to meet the needs of the economy and develop specialized sectors that are competitive in the global market. Furthermore, the salient takeaway is that the penetration of export markets should be promoted as much as the furtherance of FDI.

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