scholarly journals An Evaluation of the Determinants of Remittances: Evidence from Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Temitope Laniran ◽  
◽  
Daniel Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
High Level

International remittances have grown to become an integral source of finance for development. Existing literature posits that there is an association between remittances and growth in developing countries. Economic growth models highlight the importance of capital accumulation and high level financial flows, the inadequacy of which characterizes developing countries and often explains their fate. It is argued that remittances will provide a panacea to the serious poverty experienced in such developing economies by increasing financial flows and household income, which in turn stimulates consumption, savings, economic growth and ultimately development. The robustness of this relationship is, however, often questioned. Indeed, the propensity of remittances to achieve these aspirations very much hinges on the determining factors motivating the remitters and the magnitude of the remittances. Hence, given the significant flows of remittances to the developing countries, this study attempts an analysis of the determinants of remittances to Nigeria. Key macroeconomic variables with theoretical potentials of influencing the level of remittances received were subjected to econometric model testing using time series data from 1980 to 2013. The results indicate that the level of remittances received is more a function of portfolio motives than other macroeconomic factors.

scholarly journals A Test of the McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis between Money and Physical Capital in the Case of Kyrgyzstan

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harun Doğan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Complementarity Hypothesis

The main purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the validity of McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis on economic growth of Kyrgyzstan for the period of 1996–2009. McKinnon’s (1973) central thesis argues poorly functioning financial systems in developing countries may effect investment quality and growth rate of the economy in negative direction. McKinnon’s (1973) complementary hypothesis predicts that money and investment are complementary, to the contrast neoclassical and Keynesian theory, due to a self-financed investment in developing economies. In other words, according to McKinnon, financial liberalization should generate positive impacts on growth as consequence of positive relation between money and physical capital in developing countries after financial liberalization. The empirical researches conducted on complementarity hypothesis have found mixed results on the link between money and physical capital. However, empirical analysis of Kyrgyzstan’s economy is very important because of its peculiarities, it has both a trancition and developing economy, which in case of the McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis is very essential. Thus, Kyrgyzstan, as many developing countries, have undertaken financial liberalization programs during the past twenty years after collapse of Soviet Union. Therefore, the study analyzes long run and short run association among the real rate of interest on deposits, private investments, economic growth, and domestic savings behavior in Kyrgyzstan, using annual time series data for 1996-2009 with techniques of ARDL Cointegration Error Correction Model. The results does not support the McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis between money and physical capital on the period for 1996-2009 in the Kyrgyzstan’s Economy.

scholarly journals Financial innovation and economic growth: evidence from Zimbabwe

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Bara ◽  
Calvin Mudzingiri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Dark Side ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

The role of financial innovation on economic growth in developing countries has not been actively pursued. Stemming from the finance-growth nexus, literature suggests that financial innovation has a relationship to growth, which could be either positive or negative. Implicitly, financial innovation has a good and a dark side that affects growth. This study establishes the causal relationship between financial innovation and economic growth in Zimbabwe empirically. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds tests and Granger causality tests on financial time series data of Zimbabwe for the period 1980-2013, the study finds that financial innovation has a relationship to economic growth that varies depending on the variable used to measure financial innovation. A long-run, growth-driven financial innovationis confirmed, with causality running from economic growth to financial innovation. Bi-directional causality also exists after conditionally netting-off financial development. Policies that enhance economic growth inter-twined with financial innovation are essential, if developing countries, such as Zimbabwe, aim to maximize economic development

scholarly journals A Correlative Analysis of Modern Logistics Industry to Developing Economy Using the VAR Model: A Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Salman Hanif ◽  
Dong Mu ◽  
Saranjam Baig ◽  
Khalid Mehmood Alam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Modern Logistics ◽  
Logistics Industry ◽  
Sustainable Economic Development

The modern logistics industry has opened new strategic perspectives in establishing its interrelation with economic growth. In recent years, understanding such an overlap has become a policy issue considering ever-increasing factors and their influence on this relation. Most existing studies have explored this interaction from a general perspective, or for developed countries. This paper explores time-series analysis of the dynamic variables and their inter-related influence in both the short and long run on the relationship between modern logistic industry and economic growth—a more specific perspective, particularly for developing countries. Accordingly, we exemplify our analysis by employing the vector autoregression (VAR) model to the most updated time series data of investment in the logistics industry and the economic growth of Pakistan from 1990 to 2018. The empirical findings endorse the previous studies’ outcomes and recognize the importance of sustainable economic development concerning continuously improving the logistics industry. However, a unidirectional relation is observed that economic growth leads to developing the logistics industry—economic growth exerts a significant demand-pull effect on Pakistan’s logistics. It implies that logistic industrial development is comparatively quicker in the geographical areas where economic growth is higher than those areas where economic growth is low. To conclude this study’s findings, logistics industry reforms should prioritize the selected geographical areas in improving the economy that would lead to the modern logistics industry’s development. As the model adopts Pakistan’s context, the overall statistical analysis can be generalized to other developing economies. These results would be of particular interest to strategy makers working in developing countries and help them design and develop modern transportation and logistics, coupled with interlinked technological factors, which would attract investment in the logistics industry for sustainable economic development.

Financial development and economic growth in Tanzania: an ARDL and bound testing approach

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saganga Mussa Kapaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Testing Procedures ◽  
Positive Effects

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically weigh the evidence for financial depth, liquidity and efficiency role to economic growth, and test for the existence of cointegration between financial development variables and economic growth in Tanzania. Design/methodology/approach The study used the autoregressive distributed lag model with bound testing procedures. The sample covered yearly time-series data from 1980 to 2017, i.e. 38 years. Findings The results suggest that financial system depth is positively related to economic growth in the short run and that financial system liquidity and efficiency is strongly negatively associated with economic growth both in the short and long run. Further, it is found that financial development is cointegrated with economic growth. Thus, financial reforms and liberalisation have not fully brought the desired positive effects on economic growth yet. Originality/value The study uses principal component analysis to capture specific dimensions within the financial system as an intuitive way to aggregate financial development effects. Unlike studies that included several countries with heterogeneous characteristics, which are sometimes difficulty to homogenise, in recognition of countries’ unique experiences, this study uses data from Tanzania as a specific case. It documents pertinent pieces of evidence for a developing economy necessary for financial policy adjustments post the financial and economic liberalisation and reforms period. It nevertheless sheds light on financial policies for other comparable developing economies during and after both financial and economic liberalisation settings.

A tale of the financial inclusion-growth nexus and the degree of financial inclusion: a dynamic panel approach on selected developing countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Biplob Kumar Nandi ◽  
Gazi Quamrul Hasan ◽  
Md. Humayun Kabir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Medium Level ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
High Level

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of financial inclusion on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) at varying degrees of financial inclusion for a sample of 76 developing countries between 2011 and 2017. To evaluate the heterogeneous impact, this paper constructs the multi-dimension index of financial inclusion to classify sample countries into two sub-samples in terms of the value of FIID, taking account of three dimensions of financial inclusion: access, usage and availability. Design/methodology/approach This study attempts to identify the presence of reverse causality and long-run relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth by using the Granger causality test (Wald test) and three alternative panel cointegration tests (Kao Test, Pedroni Test, Westerlund Test) respectively. Because of the existence of the bi-directional causality between financial inclusion and per capita GDP, this study uses a fixed effect instrumental variable model with lagged dependent variable to get unbiased estimators from the panel regressions for sample countries. Findings This paper finds a strong positive impact of financial inclusion on per capita GDP growth in sample developing countries, controlling for labor market structure, financial institutions’ efficacy, infrastructural and governance issues. This study suggests that economic growth will be high in developing economies with a higher level of financial inclusion; however, the positive impact for two sub-samples countries (low and medium level of inclusion and high level of inclusion) are heterogeneous. The estimated result explains that a 1% increase in the financial inclusion index leads to a 0.0153% point increase in the per capita GDP for the countries with a low and medium level of financial inclusion, while this positive impact is significantly higher, 0.0794% point for countries with the high level of financial inclusion. This study also suggests that the higher concentration in the financial market by few agents and the lower level of governance may have an adverse impact on economic growth for the economies with a low and medium level of financial inclusion. Originality/value This study is an original study that contributes to the research gap by explaining the heterogeneous impact of financial inclusion on economic growth at varying degrees of inclusion in the two sub-sample countries. Moreover, this study posits greater appeal as it explores the issue using the sample of only developing economies.

scholarly journals PENGGUNAAN METODE ARIMA DALAM MERAMAL PERGERAKAN INFLASI

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Hartati Hartati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Inflation is a problem which haunts the economy of each country. Its development is which continually increasing make a drag on economic growth to a better direction. Inflation tends to occur in developing countries like Indonesia which is an agricultural country. To overcome the instability of inflation, one way to do is to predict the time series data. Methods Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) has the ability to capture the necessary information about the wood as well as able to cope with the instability of inflation of inflation. This is because ARIMA is a method of forecasting time series are suited to predict the number of variables in a fast, simple, inexpensive, accurate, and only requires the data variables to be predicted. Inflasi merupakan suatu masalah yang menghantui perekonomian setiap negara. Perkembangannya yang terus-menerus mengalami peningkatan menjadi hambatan pada pertumbuhan ekonomi ke arah yang lebih baik. Perubahan laju inflasi cenderung terjadi pada negara-negara berkembang seperti halnya Indonesia yang merupakan negara agraris. Untuk menanggulangi terjadinya ketidakstabilan laju inflasi, salah satu cara yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan meramalkan data time series. Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) memiliki kemampuan untuk menangkap informasi-informasi yang diperlukan mengenai laju inflasi serta mampu menanggulangi ketidakstabilan dari laju inflasi. Hal ini dikarenakan ARIMA merupakan suatu metode peramalan time series yang cocok digunakan untuk meramal sejumlah variabel secara cepat, sederhana, murah, dan akurat serta hanya membutuhkan data variabel yang akan diramal.

Modelling Future Urban Scenarios in Developing Countries: An Application Case Study in Lagos, Nigeria

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
José I Barredo ◽  
Luca Demicheli ◽  
Carlo Lavalle ◽  
Marjo Kasanko ◽  
Niall McCormick
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Urban System ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Measured Time ◽  
High Level

We consider urban sustainability issues in developing countries, with a focus on urban growth. The need for urban management tools that are able to provide prospective scenarios is addressed. Urban simulations can represent a useful approach to understanding the consequences of current planning policies—or their incompleteness. Nevertheless, simulations of future urban growth are usually quite difficult without tools which embrace the complexity of the urban system. We describe an urban-growth simulation for the city of Lagos in Nigeria, in which an urban cellular automata (CA) prototype is used. We propose a bottom-up approach which integrates land-use factors with the dynamic approach of CA for modelling future urban land-use scenarios. The model for Lagos was calibrated and tested with the aid of measured time-series data on land use, through a set of spatial metrics and κ-coefficients. A twenty-year simulation, until 2020, was run. The simulation results are realistic and achieve a high level of detail, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed model.

scholarly journals Evolution of Overall Cotton Production and Its Determinants: Implications for Developing Countries Using Pakistan Case

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 840
Author(s):  
Muhammad Umer Arshad ◽  
Yuanfeng Zhao ◽  
Omer Hanif ◽  
Faiza Fatima
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Food Crops ◽  
Cotton Production ◽  
Food Crop ◽  
Multiple Factors

Managing the declining yield of non-food crops has opened new strategic challenges amidst global uncertainties. The COVID-19 scenario has increased awareness of natural lifestyle and eco-friendly products, largely dependent on non-food crop material. This strategic shift requires moving beyond traditional farm practices to improve agricultural production efficiency, and developing countries in particular have shown a consistent loss in their self-sufficiency of industrial crops despite being major exporters of non-food crop materials. However, existing studies analyze production efficiencies of non-food crops from general or theoretical aspects often by virtual estimates from breaking down the multiple factors of crop productivity. This study examined multiple factors of crop production to identify “which crop inputs have been inefficiently used overtime” by tracking efficiency changes and various input issues in overall cotton production from practical aspects, i.e., scaling non-constant returns of those multiple factors would allow for the violation of various situations. Accordingly, a stochastic frontier approach was employed to measure the production frontier and efficiency relationship using time-series data of Pakistan’s cotton production from 1971–2018—a specific non-food crop perspective from a top-ranked cotton-producing country that has recently been shifted towards being a non-exporter of cotton due to low yield. The coefficient of area, seed, and labor indicates the positive relationship with cotton production, while fertilizer, irrigation, electricity, and machinery are statistically negative. This implies that policymakers need priority-based strategies for the judicial use of synthetic fertilizers, irrigation, a subsidy policy, and technology adoption, which could significantly improve the efficiencies of cotton productivity from the same land resources. Being adaptable to other developing economies, the analysis would strategically facilitate designing and developing affordable technology-driven solutions and their customized extensions towards sustainable non-food crop production practices and Agri-Resources efficiencies.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Volatilities on the Demand for Money in Developing Economies

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Felix S. Nyumuah
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Demand Functions ◽  
The Interest Rate

Volatilities in the interest rate and the exchange rate cause instability in money demand functions. This study investigates the effect of interest and exchange rates volatilities on money demand in developing countries using time series data of four African countries namely, Equatorial Guinea, Gambia, Nigeria and Uganda. The model used is a conventional log linear money demand function, with money demand specified as a function of income, interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate volatility and exchange rate volatility. The results show that on the whole the interest rate and exchange rate volatilities do not have significant effects on money demand in developing countries. However, the money demand functions of these economies prove unstable. These findings imply that the monetary authorities should resort to inflation targeting monetary policy and employ the interest rate as the policy instrument.

scholarly journals Local Contributions of Forests to Economic Growth of Peru: A Case of Pinus radiata Plantations

ECONOMICS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-31
Author(s):  
Nadia Nora Urriola Canchari ◽  
Pradeep Baral ◽  
Lanhui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Pinus Radiata ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forestry Sector ◽  
Cash Benefits

SUMMARY The economic contributions from forestry sector remain relatively important in all developing economies. Over the past few decades, value added in the forestry sector of these economies has gradually increased. Consequently, the need for a detailed and accurate assessment of the economic contribution of the sector has grown in order to gain the attention of the policy makers and to highlight its importance in poverty alleviation and sustainable development. Contrarily, In Peru, forestry sector continues to be left behind due to faster growth in other sectors of economy. Despite having considerable forest resources, the full extent of economic contributions of the forestry sector to local as well as the national economy is still poorly understood. Sparsity of up-to-date data on value added in the forestry sector and a general disregard to any forests other than Amazonian rainforests have compounded the already existing situation. In this context, this paper aimed at making an empirical analysis of the direct contributions of the forestry sector to the local economy of Peru in the short run using an annual time series data from 2007 to 2016. The Pinus radiata plantation forests of the Department of Ayacucho located in the Southern Peruvian Andes served as a case for this study. The results revealed nominal but significant contributions of the Pinus radiata forests to the economic growth of the Department of Ayacucho. As our study was limited only to direct cash benefits, future studies should also take into account informal and non-cash benefits in order to fully apprehend the economic contributions of the forestry sector to local and national economy.

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