scholarly journals Impact of Public Debt, Deficit and Debt Financing on Private Investment in a Large Country: Evidence from the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-161
Author(s):  
Amir Kia
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Large Country ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper analyses the direct impact of fiscal variables on private investment. The current literature ignores one or more fiscal variables and, in many cases, the foreign financing of debt. In this paper, an aggregate investment function for an economy in which firms incur adjustment costs in their investment process is developed. The developed model incorporates the direct impact of government expenditure, public debt and investment, deficits and foreign-financed debt on private investment. The model is tested on US data. It is found that public investment does not have any impact on private investment, but government expenditure, deficit, debt and foreign-financed debt crowd out private investment over the long run. However, deficit crowds in the private investment over the short run.

scholarly journals Do FDI and Public Investment Crowd in/out Domestic Private Investment in the SADC Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25
Author(s):  
Eslon Ngeendepi ◽  
Andrew Phiri
Keyword(s):  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Our study examines the crowding-in/out effect of foreign direct investment and government expenditure on private domestic investment for 15 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) for the period 1991–2019. The study employed the panel Pool Mean Group (PMG)/ARDL technique in estimating the short-run and long-run cointegration relationships between FDI, government capital expenditure and domestic private investment and adds three more variables for control purposes (interest rate, GDP growth rate and trade openness). For the full sample, FDI crowds-in domestic investment whilst government crowds-out domestic investment. However, in performing a sensitivity analysis, in which the sample was segregated into low and high income economies, both FDI and government investment crowd-in domestic investment whilst government expenditure crowds-out domestic investment in lower income SADC countries with no effect of FDI on domestic investment. Policy implications are discussed.

Public and Private Investment and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garikai Makuyana ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Crowd Out

Abstract This paper provides new evidence to contribute to the current debate on the relative impact of public and private investment on economic growth and the crowding effect between the two components of investment in South Africa. Using annual data from 1970 to 2017, the study applies the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study finds that private investment has a positive impact on economic growth both in the long run and short run, while public investment has a negative effect on economic growth in the long run. Further, in the long run, gross public investment is found to crowd out private investment, while its infrastructural component is found to crowd in private investment. The results of the study also reveal that both gross public investment and non-infrastructural public investment crowd out private investment in the short run. Overall, the study finds private investment to be more important than public investment in the South African economic growth process and that the importance of infrastructural public investment in stimulating private investment in the long run cannot be over-emphasized.

Does public investment crowd-out private investment in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanmugam Muthu
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the crowding-in or crowding-out relationship between public and private investment in India. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to estimate the long run relationship between public and private investment using annual data from 1971-1972 to 2009-2010. Findings Based on the empirical findings, it is observed that aggregate public investment has a positive effect on private investment both in the long run and the short run. In contrast to the findings of previous studies, no significant impact of public infrastructure investment on private investments is found in the long run, while non-infrastructure investment has a positive impact on private investment in the short run. Among the various categories of infrastructure sector, a positive and significant impact in the case of electricity, gas and water supply is observed. Similarly, the result indicates that public investment in machinery and equipment and construction have substantially influenced the private sector machinery and equipment in the long run and the short run. In the case of the role of macroeconomic uncertainty, the results find a negative and significant impact on private investment and the impact is higher in the short run than in the long run. Originality/value The present study extends the literature in three important ways: First, the study attempts to capture heterogeneity of public investment as well as disaggregate effects of two different categories of public infrastructure on private investment. The extent to which two different types of public assets impact the private investment in machinery and equipment investment is also examined. Second, ARDL model is used to examine the long-run relationship between public and private investment. Third, the study incorporates macroeconomic uncertainty into the empirical analysis to examine the role of macroeconomic volatility in determining private investment decision.

scholarly journals A Test of the validity of Crowding-out (or- in) hypothesis: A new examination of link between public borrowing and private investment in Emerging Europe

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-103
Author(s):  
Mehmed Ganic ◽  
Lejla Hodzic ◽  
Ognjen Ridic
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Transition Countries ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study seeks to test the existence of the crowding-out (or- in) hypothesis in a sample of 17 Emerging Europe countries divided in two panels. The study employs a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model based on three estimators, Mean Group Estimator (MG), Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE), in order to evaluate the of stability of short run and long run coefficients using consistently compiled public borrowing and private investment data between 2000 and 2019. The empirical findings of the paper generally confirm the existence of a crowding out effect in both long run and short run in European post-transition countries, and in the long run for European transition countries. More specifically, elasticity of private investment with respect to public debt is greater in the European transition countries than in the European post-transition countries. However, the findings on the crowding out (in) effect of government spending and economic growth on private investment are mixed and conflicting in both the long run and the short run. Accordingly, the study recommends that selected countries should reassess their austerity agendas employed for lowering debt levels, and follow new strategies for managing public debt burden.

The Crowding-in/ out Debate in Investments in India: Fresh Evidence from NARDL Application

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-189
Author(s):  
Nusrat Akber ◽  
Megha Gupta ◽  
Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Household Savings ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Private Investments ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The purpose of the study is to re-examine the issue of the crowding-in/out effect of public investment on private investment by adopting an improved methodology of the ‘nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag’ (NARDL) model. Taking data from 1970 to 2016, the study finds that public investment crowds-in private investment both in the long-run as well as the short-run. However, the short-run elasticity is statistically more significant and larger in magnitude than the long-run elasticity. It has also been found that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly affects private investment both in the long-run and the short-run. Among other determinants of private investment, we observe foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, credit flow to the private sector, household savings, real rate of interest and expected output affect private investment significantly. The policy implication of the study calls for the designing of public sector policies that enthuse more private investments. More credit flow to private sectors and FDI in different sectors of the economy should be prioritized. JEL Codes: E22, H54, C32

Innovations in Law

2020 ◽  
pp. 317-347
Author(s):  
B. Zorina Khan
Keyword(s):  
Common Law ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Legal Rules ◽  
Disruptive Technologies ◽  
Socioeconomic Changes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Common

Administered systems involve regulation, while efficient markets in ideas require secure property rights and appropriate adjacent institutions. Disruptive technologies typically lead to institutional bottlenecks, which then require accommodations in legal rules and their enforcement. U.S. policy toward innovation and enterprise has always been distinguished by the central role of law and the judiciary. The evolution of legal rules and standards in the United States reveals a remarkable degree of flexibility and responsiveness to innovations. In the short run, the common law economized on legal adjustment costs through “adjudication by analogy,” whereas, in the long run, socioeconomic changes wrought by major inventions ultimately produced more fundamental adjustments in adjacent institutions. This institutional elasticity can be contrasted with the lack of transparency and rigidity that characterized most administered innovation institutions.

scholarly journals Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment: Evidence from Ethiopia

2022 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Temesgen Merga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

This study examined the effect of public investment on private investment and their relative effects on Ethiopia economic growth. The study employed the ARDL bounds testing approach. The empirical results revealed that public investment has a crowding-in effect on private investment in the long run which means, public investment stimulates private investment in the long run. However, the study revealed that public investment has a crowding out effect on private investment. In the other word, public investment has no direct impact on economic growth in the long run. However, private investment has a significant positive impact on economic growth in the long run while it is negatively related to economic growth in the short run. This suggests that private investment positively contributes to economic growth more than public investment. In addition, economic growth is positively associated with private investment although it is statistically insignificant in the long run. This implies that it is prudent for policy makers not to cut back on the efficient component of public investment and increase infrastructural public investment to a level that promotes private investment in the long run thereby indirectly fostering economic growth.

scholarly journals Effects of Public Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product in Zambia from 1980-2017: An ARDL Methodology Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 103-111
Author(s):  
Mubanga Mpundu ◽  
Jane Mwafulirwa ◽  
Mutinta Chaampita ◽  
Notulu Salwindi
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The paper explored the fundamental changes in public expenditure and the resulting effect on the gross domestic product using an ARDL approach for time series data over the period 1980-2017. The control variables included foreign direct investment and current account balance. The objective was to determine changes which had occurred with regard to the performance of GDP since 1980. A quantitative method approach was used to ascertain the relationship between the variables and analysed using the E-views 9 software. Cointegration results showed a long run relationship between GDP and government expenditure. In this regard, changes in government expenditure have a strong converse effect on GDP. Government expenditure, which has increased significantly in the past decade, is seen to have had negative effects both in the short run and long run. Contrary to theory, increased government expenditure may not be ideal for growing the Zambian economy. This could be due to the allocation of this public expenditure, i.e. the 2018 Budget had 24% of the expenditure directed to economic activities. Thus it is recommended that government practice increased fiscal discipline or reallocated resources as their expansionary fiscal policies are not yielding the intended results. Additionally, policies to promote private investment may be more beneficial for the Zambian economy. On the other hand, increased investment is also recommended with government encouraging more investment promoting policies as FDI is observed to have a positive impact in the short run though insignificant in the long run. These should ensure more investors are encouraged to stay longer and the impacts/externalities of their investments be accrued to the nationals to ensure long run benefits. The Zambian government should also ensure that the country diversifies its export base and enhances its external debt management to ensure positive and consistent impact of Current Account Balance in the long run.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability and Optimal Level of Debt in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 282-292
Author(s):  
Sehrish Haleem ◽  
Awais Khan ◽  
Malik Adeel Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate

Through the current study it’s been tried to discuss that how fiscal sustainability is impacted by the debt which is taken by countries in order to push their economy towards prosperity and growth in Pakistan. Because the economy is considering vulnerable in terms of Public debt due to huge fiscal deficit in the economy. The ARDL approach is being applied by taking GDP as dependent variable while public debt, total revenues, government expenditures and interest rate are been taken as independent variable. The findings of the study suggested that there is strong and significant relationship exist between focused variables. Public debt is negatively associated with GDP in both short run and long run, while government expenditure give positive and significant relationship with GDP and interestingly total revenue give negative significant relationship in long run that supported the argument that the high revenues in developing nations inversely affects the investment that is pillar of GDP, so it adversely affected. The interest rate is positively significant in long run but in short run its negatively related with GDP because it affects cost of capital. The findings of study attract the attention of policy makers that we need either debt reduction strategies or either to minimize the gap between public revenues and public expenditures to promote sustain economic growth in the economy.

Appraisal of Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Alignment in Kenya

2020 ◽  
Vol 03 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Evans Kipchumba Kipyatich ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Productivity Differentials

Real exchange rate is an important indicator of competitiveness in the foreign trade of a country. Any changes in real exchange rates would therefore lead to fluctuations in capital flows. It is therefore important to align real exchange rates within the equilibrium levels to avoid negative consequences on the economy. This study sought to understand the determinants of real exchange rate alignment in Kenya using annual data from 1988 to 2019 using Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model. The study estimated the long run and short run dynamics of real exchange rate alignment in Kenya. The ARDL bounds test confirmed that a long run relationship exists between real exchange rate and the explanatory variables. Real exchange rate was the dependent variable while the explanatory variables were external public debt, government expenditure, interest rate differentials and productivity differentials. The results revealed that external public debt, government expenditure and productivity differentials are significant determinants of real exchange rate alignment. Interest rate differential was found to be not significant. The Error Correction Model was found to be significant and having the right (negative) sign. This shows that Kenya’s real exchange rate adjusts to the long run equilibrium as a response short run shocks of previous periods. The speed of adjustment was found to be 86 percent per year. Both the long run and error correction models were found to be stable as per the CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests. The models also passed all the diagnostic tests including serial correlation, normality, heteroscedasticity, and multicollinearity.

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