Does public investment crowd-out private investment in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanmugam Muthu
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the crowding-in or crowding-out relationship between public and private investment in India. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to estimate the long run relationship between public and private investment using annual data from 1971-1972 to 2009-2010. Findings Based on the empirical findings, it is observed that aggregate public investment has a positive effect on private investment both in the long run and the short run. In contrast to the findings of previous studies, no significant impact of public infrastructure investment on private investments is found in the long run, while non-infrastructure investment has a positive impact on private investment in the short run. Among the various categories of infrastructure sector, a positive and significant impact in the case of electricity, gas and water supply is observed. Similarly, the result indicates that public investment in machinery and equipment and construction have substantially influenced the private sector machinery and equipment in the long run and the short run. In the case of the role of macroeconomic uncertainty, the results find a negative and significant impact on private investment and the impact is higher in the short run than in the long run. Originality/value The present study extends the literature in three important ways: First, the study attempts to capture heterogeneity of public investment as well as disaggregate effects of two different categories of public infrastructure on private investment. The extent to which two different types of public assets impact the private investment in machinery and equipment investment is also examined. Second, ARDL model is used to examine the long-run relationship between public and private investment. Third, the study incorporates macroeconomic uncertainty into the empirical analysis to examine the role of macroeconomic volatility in determining private investment decision.

Impact of Public and Private Infrastructure Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from India

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-138
Author(s):  
Nishija Unnikrishnan ◽  
Thomas Paul Kattookaran
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Literature presents contradictory views regarding the impact of public and private investment on the economic growth of a country. India being a developing country, where the major share of investment is by public sector, the question which props up is what among public and private investment is contributing more towards the economic growth of the country. In this framework, the gross domestic product (GDP) can be fairly explained as a function of public infrastructure investment and private infrastructure investment. Johansen’s co-integration was used to test the long-run relationship between the variables over the period from 1961–1962 to 2016–2017. A vector error correction model (VECM) along with an impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis was done to measure the impact of public infrastructure investment and private infrastructure investment on the GDP. Based on the empirical evidence discussed earlier, it was evident that both public and private infrastructure investments have a significant impact on the economic growth of the nation. Findings which came up in this study correlate to majority findings of past literature that, when compared with public investment, it is private investment which is capable of giving a better impetus to economic growth.

Public and Private Investment and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garikai Makuyana ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Crowd Out

Abstract This paper provides new evidence to contribute to the current debate on the relative impact of public and private investment on economic growth and the crowding effect between the two components of investment in South Africa. Using annual data from 1970 to 2017, the study applies the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study finds that private investment has a positive impact on economic growth both in the long run and short run, while public investment has a negative effect on economic growth in the long run. Further, in the long run, gross public investment is found to crowd out private investment, while its infrastructural component is found to crowd in private investment. The results of the study also reveal that both gross public investment and non-infrastructural public investment crowd out private investment in the short run. Overall, the study finds private investment to be more important than public investment in the South African economic growth process and that the importance of infrastructural public investment in stimulating private investment in the long run cannot be over-emphasized.

The Crowding-in/ out Debate in Investments in India: Fresh Evidence from NARDL Application

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-189
Author(s):  
Nusrat Akber ◽  
Megha Gupta ◽  
Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Household Savings ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Private Investments ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The purpose of the study is to re-examine the issue of the crowding-in/out effect of public investment on private investment by adopting an improved methodology of the ‘nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag’ (NARDL) model. Taking data from 1970 to 2016, the study finds that public investment crowds-in private investment both in the long-run as well as the short-run. However, the short-run elasticity is statistically more significant and larger in magnitude than the long-run elasticity. It has also been found that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly affects private investment both in the long-run and the short-run. Among other determinants of private investment, we observe foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, credit flow to the private sector, household savings, real rate of interest and expected output affect private investment significantly. The policy implication of the study calls for the designing of public sector policies that enthuse more private investments. More credit flow to private sectors and FDI in different sectors of the economy should be prioritized. JEL Codes: E22, H54, C32

scholarly journals Private and Public Investment Linkages: Some Evidence Using Sectoral Level Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umbreen Zahra ◽  
◽  
Hajra Ihsan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

This study empirically investigates the relationship between public and private investment in Pakistan at the aggregate and sectoral level, including the sectors of Agriculture, Manufacturing, Finance, Construction, Transport & Communication and Mining & Quarrying. For this purpose, annual time series data is utilized from 1971 to 2019 except for the Agriculture sector covering the period of 1981-2019 as data for previous years is not available from any published sources. Multivariate co-integration approach and ECM are employed to empirically analyze the existence of long-run and short-run association among public and private investment. The results indicate a long run complementary type relationship of public investment with private investment at both the aggregate and sectoral level except for the Finance sector. The short-run analysis supports this long-run positive association at an aggregate level and four sectors, excluding Transport & Communication and Agriculture sector where the results were insignificant. Our results and generally declining share of public investment highlight that the government is playing its role as an “enabler” (or facilitator) of private investment in terms of association between public and private investment.

scholarly journals Do FDI and Public Investment Crowd in/out Domestic Private Investment in the SADC Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25
Author(s):  
Eslon Ngeendepi ◽  
Andrew Phiri
Keyword(s):  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Our study examines the crowding-in/out effect of foreign direct investment and government expenditure on private domestic investment for 15 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) for the period 1991–2019. The study employed the panel Pool Mean Group (PMG)/ARDL technique in estimating the short-run and long-run cointegration relationships between FDI, government capital expenditure and domestic private investment and adds three more variables for control purposes (interest rate, GDP growth rate and trade openness). For the full sample, FDI crowds-in domestic investment whilst government crowds-out domestic investment. However, in performing a sensitivity analysis, in which the sample was segregated into low and high income economies, both FDI and government investment crowd-in domestic investment whilst government expenditure crowds-out domestic investment in lower income SADC countries with no effect of FDI on domestic investment. Policy implications are discussed.

scholarly journals Government public infrastructure investment and economic performance in Spain (1980-2016)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Perez-Montiel ◽  
Carles Manera
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Autonomous Communities ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Acyclic Graphs ◽  
Multiplier Effects

Purpose The authors estimate the multiplier effect of government public infrastructure investment in Spain. This paper aims to use annual data of the 17 Spanish autonomous communities for the 1980–2016 period. Design/methodology/approach The authors use dynamic acyclic graphs and the heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (P-SVAR) method of Pedroni (2013). This method is robust to cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependence, which are present in the data. Findings The findings suggest that an increase in the level of government public infrastructure investment generates a positive and persistent effect on the level of output. Five years after the fiscal expansion, the multiplier effects of government public infrastructure investment reach values above one. This confirms that government public infrastructure investment expansions have Keynesian effects. The authors also find that the multiplier effects differ between autonomous communities with above-average and below-average GDP per capita. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no research uses dynamic acyclic graphs and heterogeneous P-SVAR techniques to estimate fiscal multipliers of government public investment in Spain by using subnational data.

scholarly journals Impact of Public Debt, Deficit and Debt Financing on Private Investment in a Large Country: Evidence from the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-161
Author(s):  
Amir Kia
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Large Country ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper analyses the direct impact of fiscal variables on private investment. The current literature ignores one or more fiscal variables and, in many cases, the foreign financing of debt. In this paper, an aggregate investment function for an economy in which firms incur adjustment costs in their investment process is developed. The developed model incorporates the direct impact of government expenditure, public debt and investment, deficits and foreign-financed debt on private investment. The model is tested on US data. It is found that public investment does not have any impact on private investment, but government expenditure, deficit, debt and foreign-financed debt crowd out private investment over the long run. However, deficit crowds in the private investment over the short run.

Public infrastructure investment and fiscal sustainability in Latin America: incompatible goals?

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Carranza ◽  
Christian Daude ◽  
Angel Melguizo
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Space

Purpose – This paper aims to understand the relationship in developing countries between fiscal consolidation and public investment – a flexible part of the budget that is easier to cut during consolidation effort, but with potentially negative growth effects. Analyzing in detail the case of Peru, the paper explores alternative fiscal rules and frameworks that might help create fiscal space for infrastructure investment. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses trends in public and total infrastructure investment in six large Latin American economies, in the light of fiscal developments since the early 1980s. In particular, the paper explores the association between fiscal consolidations (improvements in the structural fiscal balance) and public infrastructure investment rates. In the second part, the paper analyzes recent changes in the fiscal framework of Peru and shows how they were conductive in creating additional fiscal space. Findings – The authors argue that post-crisis fiscal frameworks, notably fiscal rules that are increasingly popular in the region, should not only consolidate the recent progress towards debt sustainability, but also create the fiscal space to close these infrastructure gaps. These points are illustrated in a detailed account of recent developments in the fiscal framework and public investment in the Peruvian case. Originality/value – The paper contributes new evidence to the literature on fiscal consolidation and the composition of government expenditures. While the literature based on evidence from the 1990s has argued that fiscal consolidation plans in Latin America have almost always led to a significant reduction in public infrastructure investment, the paper finds less clear cut evidence when extending the analysis backwards (1980s) and forwards (2000s). The example of the case of Peru is used to explore fiscal institutions and rules that might be useful for other developing countries that face important infrastructure gaps.

Infrastructure spending may pick up in Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Economic Forecast ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscapes

Subject The expected rebound from declining infrastructure investment in Central Europe in 2016-17. Significance In its latest Economic Forecast, the European Commission expects a short-lived decline in public investment in three Central European (CE) countries. This is due to a 'one-off effect', as absorption rates for EU structural and cohesion funds dip across the region, with the closure of the 2007-13 programme period. This will weigh on headline GDP, with the Commission forecasting relatively low 2016 growth rates of 2.1% for Hungary, 2.3% for the Czech Republic and 3.5% for Poland. Impacts Solid growth rates in CE will attract private investment to infrastructure projects, particularly once GDP expands faster in 2017. Infrastructure investment will focus on such traditional sectors as transport and industry rather than financial services in 2016-17. Low borrowing costs and private companies' strong demand for short- and long-term loans will facilitate an upturn in projects in 2017. Given the diverse fiscal and political landscapes across CE, divergence in deals and mixed funding schemes are expected after 2016. CE governments may introduce lending schemes designed to shield new infrastructure projects from financial volatility.

scholarly journals Public / Private Investment Linkages: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (4II) ◽  
pp. 805-817
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stable Association ◽  
The Developed Countries

The issue of whether public investment crowds out or crowds in private investment has received considerable attention in the economic literature. Most of the empirical studies that examined the long run stable association between public and private investment have focused on examining this relationship for the developed countries with very little attention on the developing countries. The empirical results of these studies, however, are highly controversial. The existing empirical studies in this area can be divided into three categories. The studies in the first category including Barro (1974), Kormendi (1983), and Feldstein (1982) have examined the empirical implications of the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH). The empirical results of most of the studies in this category were supportive of the REH. Seater (1993) argues that good empirical studies generally provide evidence in support of the REH; however, some studies refute it owing to the lake of econometric accuracy.

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