scholarly journals Comparative study of Ohlson and cash flow discounting models in the prediction of the stock price

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-168
Author(s):  
Faten Nasfi Salem
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Listed Company ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Company Value ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model ◽  
Ohlson Model

Two models derived from the dividend discount model attracted the attention of researchers: the residual income model (RIM) and the Ohlson model. These models are said to be dualistic since they combine both aspects of the economic and accounting vision. We propose, in our study, to test the performance of the dualistic evaluation model and to show the importance of accounting information. To do this, we will calculate the value of a listed company according to the actuarial valuation model, namely: the available cash flow discounting model (DCF) and the Ohlson model as a dualistic model. Then, we will determine, based on the expectation and the variance of the signed prediction error (SPE), the model that comes closest to the market price in the case of a Tunisian listed company. The results found in the Tunisian context show the superiority of the Ohlson model in the prediction of stock market prices. This model underlies the traditional belief that the company value is compounded of two main parts: the net value of the investment made in it (book value) and the present value of the period benefits (earnings) that together bring the “clean surplus” concept of the shareholders’ equity value. Specifically, Ohlson (1995) motivates the adoption of the historical price model in value relevance studies, which expresses value as a function of earnings and book values

scholarly journals PENILAIAN HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN PEMBIAYAAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Kim Hong ◽  
Fakhruddin Nasution
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Fundamental Analysis ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model

<span>The purpose of multi finance companies’ stock price valuation is to know their intrinsic <span>values by performing fundamental analysis using dividend discount model, free cash flow to the firm model, free cash flow to equity model, and residual income model. Research data uses secondary data in the period of 2006-2010 which consists of Indonesian Stock Price Composite Index (IHSG), and multi finance companies’ stock prices taken from Yahoo Finance; multi finance companies’ financial statements taken from Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI) reports; multi finance industry data taken from Bapepam-LK. As a result of research, stock of ADMF is fair valued by using the analysis of dividend<br />discount model; undervalued by using the analysis of free cash flow to the firm and free cash flow to equity models; overvalued by using the analysis of residual income model. Stock of BFIN is undervalued by using the analysis of dividend discount, free cash flow to the firm, and free cash flow to equity models; overvalued by using the analysis of residual income model. Stock of MFIN is overvalued by using the analysis of dividend discount<br />and residual income models; undervalued by using the analysis of free cash flow to the firm and free cash flow to equity models. Statistic t-test shows that there are no significant differences to value stock prices using dividend discount, free cash flow to the firm, free cash flow to equity, and residual income models, therefore investment analyst or investor may use one of the chosen stock price valuation model.<br />Keywords: Multi finance companies, Fundamental analysis, Stock price valuation model, Intrinsic value, Required return, Investment risk<br /></span></span>

PENGARUH IT SPENDING TERHADAP KINERJA PERUSAHAAN PADA PERUSAHAAN TELEKOMUNIKASI YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK SELURUH ASIA TENGGARA PADA TAHUN 2009-2011

MODUS ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Irene Adrayani
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Company Performance ◽  
Corporate Value ◽  
Accounting Information System ◽  
Company Value

This study aims to get empirical evidence about the infuence of IT spending on corporate value by testing the efect of IT spending on corporate value by using Tobin’s Q. Te higher the stock price, the higher the company value as well as investors’ assessment. The market price of the company’s stocks refects investors’ assessment of the overall equity held. Of the stock price refects investor can provide an assessment of a company. Tobin’s Q is the ratio of the market value of the company’s assets as measured by the market value of the outstanding stocks and debt (enterprise value) to the replacement cost of the assets of the company. The sampling method is based on purposive sampling method with the purpose to obtain a sample that meets the criteria. Tis study used a sample taken from a telecommunications company listed on the Stock Exchange throughout Southeast Asia during the period of 2009-2011. The hypothesis in this study was tested using simple regression. Based on data analysis, the result that the variable IT spending does not afect the company value.Keywords: accounting information system, Tobin’s Q, IT spending, capital expenditure, company performance

Prediksi Harga Saham Perusahaan Perbankan Menggunakan Regresi Linear Studi Kasus Bank BCA Tahun 2015-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-15
Author(s):  
Merfin Merfin ◽  
Raymond Sunardi Oetama
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Listed Company ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Stock Investment ◽  
The People ◽  
Mining Tool ◽  
A Company

Stock investment is important for financial development in a company. Moreover, the stock price displayed by the company can be known by the people and the local economy because the company has gone public on the Indonesia Economic Exchange (IDX) at www.idx.co.id. There are several fundamental factors that influence the stock market price in a listed company and as a result the number of stock investors in Indonesia is very small. This cause made it difficult for the community to predict the stock price of banking companies at inconsistent prices. The method to be used in this paper is Linear Regression using Excel tools to perform calculations and SPSS 16.0 as a data mining tool. The research data taken is historical data of banking companies for 3 periods as a whole in the form of excel that has been downloaded from the Yahoo Finance website. The final results are in the form of MAPE charts in 3 years period, and Average error chart in 3 years period.

scholarly journals Bank Valuation Models – A Comparative Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Chitra Gunshekhar Gounder ◽  
M. Venkateshwarlu
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Shareholder Value ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model ◽  
Relative Valuation

The Bank valuation model was designed based on objective to fit  the most  applicable  valuation model for banks to help in forecasting bank specific decision and also forecast the market value of share. First study the accuracy and explanatory value of the value estimates from the residual income model compared to the estimates from the Relative valuation model for banks. Empirical evidence suggests that the residual income model is superior to the relative valuation model when it comes to measuring bank shareholder value. The results of the comparison suggest that value estimates from the residual income model are even more reliable for banks. On this basis, we conclude that residual income is an appropriate value estimate for the shareholder value of banks. There was positive significant relationship identified between the intrinsic value of bank share determined by RIV model and Market price of share in all the cases by performing correlation and Regression study. This study will be useful for forecasting the possible changes in market price. It was identified that determinants vary as per the working and regulatory condition as determinants impacting private, public and Indian banks were not similar so panel regression model will vary for each cases. It was also identified that Public Sector Bank in India shows more positive progressive trend as compared to private Sector Bank even after the fact that public Sector Bank has higher regulatory restriction as compared to Private Sector banks. This research will serve very useful for the banker to plan and take decision regarding shareholder value creation by implementing proper valuation model for getting appropriate value estimate and also adopting proper internal performance measure for having accurate and regular check on the process of value creation. 

Do combining value estimates increase valuation accuracy? Evidence from Indian chemical industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjit Tiwari ◽  
Harish Kumar Singla
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Chemical Industry ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model

Purpose – Being a developing nation with huge opportunity of growth prospects the assessment of valuation models becomes important to have a more realistic value estimate. The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the comparative accuracy and explanatory performance of discounted cash flow (DCF) and residual income model (RIM) valuation models for the Indian chemical industry and come up with a composite valuation model. Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the objective of the study the authors first determine the intrinsic values using both the models. Comparisons of the models are based on prediction errors and the explanatory performance of market value on value estimates. The study uses panel regression to forecast estimates of earnings and measure explanatory performance. The authors examine the ability of the value estimates to explain cross-sectional variation in the observed market values. The study also uses GMM method for deriving robust estimators. Variables for the study are collected from the CMIE’s prowess data base (release 4). The authors consider all 1,075 BSE listed chemical companies for the purpose of the study. The study uses annual data points starting from 31 March 2002 to 31 March 2011. Findings – The comparative framework shows that both Residual Income model and Composite Valuation model are superior to Discounted cash flow model and are equally likely. But since composite value estimates considers all bonafide informations of individual models, the estimates of Composite Valuation model becomes more reliable. Research limitations/implications – The study only compares and combines the two most widely used valuation models around the world. Future studies can be conducted using the third widely used valuation models, i.e. multiples and see the level of accuracy of individuals as well as the composite model. Originality/value – As a concern very few research has been conducted in this area in India. This paper provides practitioners with a snapshot of the applicability of DCF and RIM valuation models. And also shows how a composite value estimate can improve accuracy.

scholarly journals MASALAH KEAGENAN ALIRAN KAS BEBAS, MANAJEMEN LABA DAN RELEVANSI NILAI INFORMASI AKUNTANSI

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 232-246
Author(s):  
Aulia Fuad Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Agency Problem ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Potential Conflict ◽  
Book Value ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact

Free cash flow agency problem causes potential conflict of interest between managers and shareholders. Managers of firms with high free cash flow and of low growth opportunity tend to invest in marginal or even negative NPV project and use earnings management to camouflage the effects of non-wealth-maximizing investments. As a result, it is predicted that investors will react to earnings management and free cash flow agency problem and therefore reflected in stock price. In this sense, earnings management and free cash flow agency problem is predicted to have an impact on value relevance of accounting information.The objective of this study is to assess the impact of earnings management on value relevance of earnings and book value. This study also investigates the different effect of earnings management on value relevance of earnings and book value between free cash flow agency problem firms and non free cash flow agency problem firms. Result shows that earnings and book value are value relevance and earnings management decreases those value relevances. The result also conclude that the negative effect of earnings management on value relevance of earnings and book value is higher for free cash flow agency problem firms compared to non free cash flow agency problem firms.

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