Decreased Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in the Second Wave: a study in 53 countries.

India is currently experiencing the third wave of COVID-19, which began on around 28 Dec. 2021. Although genome sequencing data of a sufficiently large sample is not yet available, the rapid growth in the daily number of cases, comparable to South Africa, United Kingdom, suggests that the current wave is primarily driven by the Omicron variant. The logarithmic regression suggests the growth rate of the infections during the early days in this wave is nearly four times than that in the second wave. Another notable difference in this wave is the relatively concurrent arrival of outbreaks in all the states; the effective reproduction number (Rt) although has significant variations among them. The test positivity rate (TPR) also displays a rapid growth in the last 10 days in several states. Preliminary estimates with the SIR model suggest that the peak to occur in late January 2022 with peak caseload exceeding that in the second wave. Although the Omicron trends in several countries suggest a decline in case fatality rate and hospitalizations compared to Delta, a sudden surge in active caseload can temporarily choke the already stressed healthcare India is currently experiencing the third wave of COVID-19, which began on around 28 Dec. 2021. Although genome sequencing data of a sufficiently large sample is not yet available, the rapid growth in the daily number of cases, comparable to South Africa, United Kingdom, suggests that the current wave is primarily driven by the Omicron variant. The logarithmic regression suggests the growth rate of the infections during the early days in this wave is nearly four times than that in the second wave. Another notable difference in this wave is the relatively concurrent arrival of outbreaks in all the states; the effective reproduction number (Rt) although has significant variations among them. The test positivity rate (TPR) also displays a rapid growth in the last 10 days in several states. Preliminary estimates with the SIR model suggest that the peak to occur in late January 2022 with peak caseload exceeding that in the second wave. Although the Omicron trends in several countries suggest a decline in case fatality rate and hospitalizations compared to Delta, a sudden surge in active caseload can temporarily choke the already stressed healthcare infrastructure. Therefore, it is advisable to strictly adhere to COVID-19 appropriate behavior for the next few weeks to mitigate an explosion in the number of infections.

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Burden of COVID-19 and Case Fatality Rate in Pune India: An Analysis of First and Second Wave of the Pandemic

IJID Regions ◽

10.1016/j.ijregi.2021.12.006 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Prasad Bogam ◽

Aparna Joshi ◽

Sanket Nagarkar ◽

Divyashri Jain ◽

Nikhil Gupte ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Second Wave

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The burden of COVID-19 and Case Fatality Rate in Pune India: An Analysis of First and Second Wave of the Pandemic

10.1101/2021.06.21.21259225 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Prasad Bogam ◽

Aparna Joshi ◽

Sanket Nagarkar ◽

Divyashri Jain ◽

Nikhil Gupte ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Maintenance Phase ◽

Independent Effect ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Time To Death ◽

Risk Of Death ◽

And Gender ◽

Incident Cases ◽

Second Wave

Background. The recent second wave in India in April-May 2021 placed an unprecedented burden on the Indian health systems. However, limited data exist on the epidemiology of the COVID-19 pandemic from the first wave through the second wave in India. With detailed epidemiologic data, we aimed to assess trends in incident cases and case fatality, its risk between pandemic waves in Pune, an epicenter of COVID-19 cases in India, a country with the second-largest absolute burden worldwide. Methods. Programmatic COVID-19 data from Pune city between the first wave (March 09th 2020-October 31st, 2020), maintenance phase (November 01st 2020-February 14th, 2021), the second wave (February 15th, 2021-May 31st, 2021) were assessed for trends of incident cases, time-to-death, and case fatality rate (CFR). In addition, Poisson regression models adjusted for age and gender were used to determine the independent effect of pandemic waves on mortality. Results. Of 465,192 COVID-19 cases, 162,182 (35%) were reported in the first wave, and 4,146 (2.5%) died among them; Maintenance period registered 27,517 (6%) cases with 590 (2.1%) deaths; Second wave reported 275,493 (59%) cases and 3184 (1.1%) deaths (p<0.01). The overall CFR was 1.16 per 1000 person-days (PD), which declined from 1.80 per 1000 PD during the first wave to 0.77 per 1000 PD in the second wave. The risk of death was 1.49 times higher during the first wave (adjusted case fatality rate ratio- aCFRR,1.49; 95% CI: 1.37-1.62) and 35% lower in the second wave (aCFRR, 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59 -0.70), compared to the maintenance phase. Interpretation. The absolute burden of COVID-19 cases and deaths were more significant in the second wave in Pune, India; however, the CFR declined as the pandemic progressed. Nevertheless, investigating newer therapies and implementing mass vaccinations against COVID-19 are urgently needed.

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Towards Understanding the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate

10.1101/2021.03.01.21252698 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Donghui Yan ◽

Aiyou Chen ◽

Buqing Yang

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Exploratory Data Analysis ◽

Age Groups ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Age Effect ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Apparent Discrepancy ◽

Exploratory Data ◽

Second Wave

AbstractAn important parameter for COVID-19 is the case fatality rate (CFR). It has been applied to wide applications, including the measure of the severity of the infection, the estimation of the number of infected cases, risk assessment etc. However, there remains a lack of understanding on several aspects of CFR, including population factors that are important to CFR, the apparent discrepancy of CFRs in different countries, and how the age effect comes into play. We analyze the CFRs at two different time snapshots, July 6 and Dec 28, with one during the first wave and the other a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider two important population covariates, age and GDP as a proxy for the quality and abundance of public health. Extensive exploratory data analysis leads to some interesting findings. First, there is a clear exponential age effect among different age groups, and, more importantly, the exponential index is almost invariant across countries and time in the pandemic. Second, the roles played by the age and GDP are a little surprising: during the first wave, age is a more significant factor than GDP, while their roles have switched during the second wave of the pandemic, which may be partially explained by the delay in time for the quality and abundance of public health and medical research to factor in.

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Mortality among adult hospitalized patients during the first wave and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic at a tertiary care center in India

Monaldi Archives for Chest Disease ◽

10.4081/monaldi.2021.2034 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ravindra Nath ◽

Neeraj Kumar Gupta ◽

Amandeep Jaswal ◽

Sparsh Gupta ◽

Navjot Kaur ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Care Center ◽

Tertiary Care ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Duration Of Symptoms ◽

Entire Study ◽

Before And After ◽

Second Wave

The similarities and differences between the mortality patterns of the two waves in India remain largely unknown. This was a retrospective study of medical records conducted in the COVID data center of our hospital This study analyzed data of patients who died in the month of August, 2020 to October 2020 (one month before and after the peak of first wave i.e., 16th September, 2020) & April 2021 to June 2021 (one month before and after the peak of second wave i.e., 6th May, 2021), corresponding to an equal part of the pandemic during first (2020) and second (2021) wave. Out of 1893 patients in the study, 764 patients were admitted during the first wave and 1129 patients during the second wave of pandemic. In total, 420 patients died during the entire study period. Of those, 147 (35%) deaths occurred during the first wave and 273 (65%) during the second wave, reflecting a case fatality rate (CFR) of 19.2% during the first wave and a CFR of 24.18%. There were no significant differences in the Age Group, Gender, Presenting Complaints, Duration of Stay and Comorbidities. However, the deceased COVID-19 patients had an increase in Case Fatality Rate, average duration of symptoms from onset to Hospital Admission (DOSHA) and a major shift from MODS to ARDS being the Cause of Death during the second wave of Pandemic. This study demonstrates increased CFR, average DOSHA and a paradigm shift to ARDS as cause of mortality during the second peak of the Pandemic. It is necessary to remain vigilant of newer COVID-19 variants of concern, follow COVID-19 appropriate behaviors and keep emphasizing on care of high-risk groups including patients with comorbidities and elderly population to prevent mortality.

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THE Y FACTOR: IS IT A RISK FOR INCREASED MORTALITY IN COVID-19?

10.36106/ijar/0105593 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-3

Author(s):

Reena Wani ◽

Shraddha Mevada ◽

Mahin Bhatt ◽

Priya Wani ◽

Varun Wani

Keyword(s):

Immune System ◽

Gender Difference ◽

Clinical Outcomes ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Men And Women ◽

Second Wave

India is currently experiencing the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is widely known that there are sexdifferences in the immune system and it is believed that these have affected clinical outcomes in men and women suffering from COVID-19. We aimed to study the Case Fatality Rates in both genders in our institute and assess the gender difference, if any, and probable reasons for the same, in both waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analysed data from our institute from April 2020 to June 2021. It included the total admissions and case fatality rates in men and women month wise, as well as their respective patterns during the rst and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in our nation with a view to assess the gender difference in these groups. Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the percentage of the total number of deaths due to a particular disease and the total number of cases due to the same disease. It is the propensity of a disease to kill and is simply the ratio of deaths to cases. Our study revealed a greater number of female admissions throughout the pandemic but a lower COVID positivity rate in women during the second wave. There were fewer Covid positive women in the second wave, but female CFR was greater than male. During the rst wave, more women were Covid positive but male CFR was more than double that of women for that period.

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Decreased Case Fatality Rate of COVID‐19 in the Second Wave: A study in 53 countries or regions

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases ◽

10.1111/tbed.13819 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Guihong Fan ◽

Zhichun Yang ◽

Qianying Lin ◽

Shi Zhao ◽

Lin Yang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Second Wave

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Preliminary Estimate of COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in the Philippines using Linear Regression Analysis

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3569248 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Michael Arieh Medina

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Case Fatality ◽

The Philippines ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Preliminary Estimate

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Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.20886 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ahmed Youssef Kada

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Doubling Time ◽

Case Fatality ◽

World Health ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Therapeutic Protocol ◽

First Case ◽

The World ◽

The Impact ◽

At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

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