scholarly journals MODELLING OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICE EFFECTS ON THE FISCAL PERFORMANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UKRAINE

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-56
Author(s):  
Victor Shevchuk ◽  
Roman Kopych
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Fiscal Performance ◽  
Price Effects

Constraints to Economic Growth in South Africa

2021 ◽  
pp. 110-134
Author(s):  
Kenneth Creamer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Weak State ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact

This chapter analyses the drivers and constraints on the rate of economic growth in South Africa from the 1950’s apartheid-era through to the democratic period post-1994. Key structural factors identified as impacting on the rate and composition of economic growth include the country’s history of racial injustice and exclusion, its industrial structure and linkages to the global commodity price cycle, the evolution of macroeconomic imbalances and related infrastructure investment failures, and the impact of weak state capacity and corruption. Thereafter, the chapter outlines a number of strategic policy interventions for overcoming constraints to inclusive economic growth in South Africa.

Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility

2005 ◽  
pp. 137-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Dehn ◽  
Christopher L. Gilbert ◽  
Panos Varangis
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Commodity Price Volatility

scholarly journals Bubbles in Agricultural Commodity Markets of China

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi-Xi Zhang ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Ran Tao ◽  
Oana-Ramona Lobonţ ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Multiple Bubbles ◽  
Market Fundamentals

We employ the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller test to examine whether there are multiple bubbles in Chinese agricultural commodities. The proposed approach is suitable for time series data and identifies the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. The results indicate the existence of bubbles for some agricultural commodity prices, such as garlic, ginger, corn, and wheat prices, that deviate from their intrinsic values upon market fundamentals. The bubbles in the garlic and ginger market are related to speculative activities. The other bubbles, in the corn and wheat market, are associated with the rising oil price, international market, and the negative effect of stockpiling policy. The authorities should recognize bubbles and observe their evolutions, leading to Chinese agricultural commodity price stabilization. These findings suggest corresponding measures to be implemented. China should establish a unified market information release platform to avoid speculative activities and formulate a market-oriented agricultural policy to enhance competitiveness among the international markets.

scholarly journals On the Dynamic Relationship between U.S. Farm Income and Macroeconomic Variables

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek ◽  
Won W. Koo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of changes in macroeconomic variables—agricultural commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates—on the U.S. farm income. For this purpose, we adopt an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration with quarterly data for 1989–2008. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the long-ran behavior of U.S. farm income, but has little effect in the short-run. We also find that the commodity price and interest rate have been significant determinants of U.S. farm income in both the short- and long-run over the past two decades.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Impact of Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 162-174
Author(s):  
Adeyemi A. Ogundipe ◽  
Omobola Adu ◽  
Oluwatomisin M. Ogundipe ◽  
Abiola J. Asaleye
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Agricultural Prices ◽  
Commodity Price Volatility ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
Macroeconomic Aggregates

Introduction: The Nigerian economy has remained consistently heavily dependent on earnings from commodity exports which constitute over 95% external earning and 85% of budgetary and fiscal financing. Agricultural commodity exports have witnessed a significant price swings in the international market in the past few decades resulting in food price hike and macroeconomic distortions in economies heavily dependent on food imports. Methods and Materials: The study assesses the macreoconomic impact of agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria from 1970-2017 using Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) cointegration and Impulse-Response Function (IRF) analysis. The study adopted an atheoretical statistics to ascertain the evidence of swings in macroeconomic aggregates. Results: There was evidence of persistent fluctuations in the macroeconomic variables observed, implying that external price shocks exert a significant impact on the macroeconomic management, since bulk of national budgetary and fiscal financing is from commodity exports. Conclusion: The study found that volatile agricultural prices were responsible for a meager 2% of macroeconomic fluctuations. The empirical evidence corroborates the statistics showing that the share of agriculture in primary commodity exports has consistently remained less than 3% since the advent of crude oil. Furthermore, the study found that the swings in agricultural prices impacts foreign reserves and inflation more significantly and earlier in the time horizons than other macroeconomic aggregates.

scholarly journals Paraguay

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (45) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Activity Levels ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Weather Shocks ◽  
Price Boom ◽  
Tradable Sector ◽  
Bad Weather

In the past two decades, Paraguay has seen strong growth and a sharp reduction in poverty. Strong GDP growth was the result of sound macro policies (with low inflation and low fiscal deficits and debt) and an agricultural commodity price boom which spilled over to the non-tradable sector. Growth was not just high but also volatile, as bad weather shocks led to poor harvests, which spill over to the broader economy. In early 2020, Paraguay was rebounding strongly from another weather shock, and full-year growth was forecast at over 4 percent. In 2019, bad weather had reduced the harvest, and GDP growth had come to a near standstill. A recovery started in the second half of 2019 and gathered strength in early 2020—in February economic activity was 7 percent higher than a year earlier. The Covid-19 epidemic halted the recovery. An early lockdown—which kept the death toll among the lowest in the region—led to a sharp contraction in economic activity, with April activity levels at 20 percent below those in February. Women, informal sector workers, and workers in the service sector were particularly hard hit; while children were severely affected by the closing of the schools until the end of 2020.

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