An Assessment of Global Economic Forecasts based on Kalman Filter Techniques and a Low-Order Econometric Model

1982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence W. Taylor ◽  
Steven M. Sliwa
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Economic Forecasts ◽  
Low Order

Introducing Exchange-Rate Equations Into a World Econometric Model

1987 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 57-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Wren-Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Rate Equations ◽  
Rate System ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
World Economic ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Forecasts

In this Review the Institute's world economic forecasts are for the first time produced with the aid of a large quarterly econometric model. The general features of this model are described in an Appendix to the World Economy chapter in this Review. The model is based on the WEP (World Economic Prospects) model which has been operated and developed by economists in HM Treasury for more than a decade. However, exchange rates in WEP are exogenous, and this article discusses the estimation of an exchange-rate system for the model, and its implications in terms of overall model properties.

scholarly journals Uncertainty propagation for deterministic models of biochemical networks using moment equations and the extended Kalman filter

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (181) ◽  
pp. 20210331
Author(s):  
Tamara Kurdyaeva ◽  
Andreas Milias-Argeitis
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Extended Kalman Filter ◽  
Biochemical Networks ◽  
Moment Closure ◽  
Moment Equations ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low Order

Differential equation models of biochemical networks are frequently associated with a large degree of uncertainty in parameters and/or initial conditions. However, estimating the impact of this uncertainty on model predictions via Monte Carlo simulation is computationally demanding. A more efficient approach could be to track a system of low-order statistical moments of the state. Unfortunately, when the underlying model is nonlinear, the system of moment equations is infinite-dimensional and cannot be solved without a moment closure approximation which may introduce bias in the moment dynamics. Here, we present a new method to study the time evolution of the desired moments for nonlinear systems with polynomial rate laws. Our approach is based on solving a system of low-order moment equations by substituting the higher-order moments with Monte Carlo-based estimates from a small number of simulations, and using an extended Kalman filter to counteract Monte Carlo noise. Our algorithm provides more accurate and robust results compared to traditional Monte Carlo and moment closure techniques, and we expect that it will be widely useful for the quantification of uncertainty in biochemical model predictions.

scholarly journals The HWWA econometric model for economic forecasts

1999 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 201-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf-Ferdinand Danckwerts ◽  
Marion Danckwerts
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Model ◽  
Economic Forecasts

the effects of resonance with Jupiter in the system of short-period comets

1974 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. 193-203
Author(s):  
L̆ubor Kresák
Keyword(s):  
Structural Effects ◽  
Order Resonance ◽  
Mean Motion ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Compound Effect ◽  
Low Order

AbstractStructural effects of the resonance with the mean motion of Jupiter on the system of short-period comets are discussed. The distribution of mean motions, determined from sets of consecutive perihelion passages of all known periodic comets, reveals a number of gaps associated with low-order resonance; most pronounced are those corresponding to the simplest commensurabilities of 5/2, 2/1, 5/3, 3/2, 1/1 and 1/2. The formation of the gaps is explained by a compound effect of five possible types of behaviour of the comets set into an approximate resonance, ranging from quick passages through the gap to temporary librations avoiding closer approaches to Jupiter. In addition to the comets of almost asteroidal appearance, librating with small amplitudes around the lower resonance ratios (Marsden, 1970b), there is an interesting group of faint diffuse comets librating in characteristic periods of about 200 years, with large amplitudes of about±8% in μ and almost±180° in σ, around the 2/1 resonance gap. This transient type of motion appears to be nearly as frequent as a circulating motion with period of revolution of less than one half that of Jupiter. The temporary members of this group are characteristic not only by their appearance but also by rather peculiar discovery conditions.

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