scholarly journals International Application Model Short-Long Term Between GDP and Consumption : Case Study Indonesia

ECONOMICS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-90
Author(s):  
Teguh Sugiarto ◽  
Ludiro Madu ◽  
Ahmad Subagyo ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

SUMMARY More recently, significant fluctuations in the Indonesian economy justify the need to pay more attention to this issue. In this case, the main purpose of this research is to know the relationship between two issues related to Indonesian macro economy called consumption and GDP for data period during 1967 until 2014. This study investigates the relationship between GDP variables and Indonesian consumption consumption variables using the test ARDL, cointegration and Granger causality. The result of the research can be concluded that, there is long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption with long-term ARDL model, 10% change of consumption will produce long-term change of 44% in GDP. It is not surprising that there is no short-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption. 10% of consumption will result in a short-term ARDL model change of 95% in GDP. The variables and consumption of GDP are cointegrated in the long run significantly at lag interval 10, whereas the use of lag interval 1 and 5 is not credited in the long run. Using a cointegration test with lag interval 1, 5 and 10 indicates significant for all usage slowness. So it can be summarized in the context of GDP and coordinated short-term economic consumption for all the prevailing interval lags. concluded that long-term causality test results between GDP variables and significant consumption with time intervals 5 and 10. intervals 1, 15 and 20 have no long-term causality relationship between GDP variables and consumption variables. a short-term causal model. With lagging intervals of 1, 5, 10 and 15, there is a short-term causal relationship between the variable GDP and consumption. As for the use of delay interval 20 there is no causal relationship in the short term between the variable GDP and consumption in Indonesia.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daouda Coulibaly ◽  
Fulgence Zran Goueu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.

scholarly journals An econometric modelling of the savings – investments nexus for Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-56
Author(s):  
Samuel Asuamah Yeboah ◽  
◽  
Boateng Kwadwo Prempeh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Predictive Test ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Introduction. The problem under discussion is whether savings are associated with investments in the long-term and whether savings predict investment with feedback or not. Addressing the problem is important since it informs policy formulation in the financial sector in ensuring efficient financial intermediation. The purpose of the article is looks at the savings-investment relationship for Ghana during the period 1960 to 2016. Methodology. Utilizing ARDL (with bounds testing) approach, the Granger predictive test, the Generalised Impulse Response Function, and Variance decomposition function. Results. The results indicate that a 1% increase in savings, GDP and financial development would result in a 0.069%, 0.266% and 0.125% increase respectively in investment in the short-term. It is discovered that savings do not cause investment in the long-run but rather in the short-run. The Granger causality test establishes a unidirectional causality running from savings to investment in the short-run. Discussion and Conclusion. The ramifications of the finding are that there is capital fixed status globally. Future examinations ought to consider structural break(s) issues as well as panel analysis to determine if the findings of the current study would be reproduced.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia Within the Framework of the Phillips Curve

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Johanna Pangeiko Nautwima ◽  
Asa Romeo Asa
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

This study intended to empirically validate the applicability of the Phillips Curve in Namibia since independence, using semi-annual time series data, and taking into account the periods of the annus horribilis of the global financial crises and the Coronavirus Disease pandemic. It further sought to examine the nature of the relationship between inflation and unemployment to determine whether it is short-run or long-run and establish the causal relationship between the variables using various econometric analyses. The unit root tests indicate that the variables were stationary in their level forms, implying the absence of the long-run relationship. Hence, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model was performed to measure the short-run relationship between the variables. Results from the OLS analysis reveal a bidirectional nexus between inflation and unemployment, validating the presence of the Phillips Curve in the Namibian economy. These results correspond to the findings that incorporated the periods of economic shocks; thus, adjudging the critics of the Philips Curve regarding the consideration of economic shockwaves to be nonsensical in the Namibian economy. Finally, Granger causality test was conducted to establish the causal relationship between the variables, and results found inflation and unemployment to be unrelated. Based on these findings, the study recommends policymakers to adopt a policy mix, skewed to reducing unemployment predominately among the youth since the issues cannot be addressed simultaneously. Lastly, the study suggests future investigations to assess panel analyses on the phenomenon concerning developing countries, particularly those in the same region. It also recommends a significant focus on the determinants of inflation and unemployment since the variables were found to be independent of each other. This will give accurate directives to policymakers in an attempt to address the matter in terms of policy formulation and assimilation when they understand where the issue is deriving from.

Population and economic development in Indonesia: A revisit with new data and methods

2013 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumitaka Furuoka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Expansion ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Important Research Topic ◽  
The Relationship

The long-term relationship between population and economic development is an important research topic in development economics. However, after several decades of research, no consensus has been reached as to whether the relationship is positive or negative. This paper chose Indonesia as a case study and employed both a linear cointegration test and a nonlinear cointegration test to examine the relationship between population and income. The tests detected a long-run equilibrium relationship between population and real per capita income in Indonesia. Also, the causality test indicated that there existed a unidirectional causality from Indonesia’s population expansion to the country’s economic growth, but not vice versa. These results indicate a population-driven economic development in Indonesia. In other words, Indonesia could represent a textbook case of population-induced development where a rapid population growth stimulates economic development.

The Nexus Between Infrastructure and Export: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faheem Ur Rehman ◽  
Yibing Ding ◽  
Abul Ala Noman ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Domestic Spending ◽  
Catch Up

This research, by using the autoregressive distributive lag method, examines the long- and short-term causal relationship between infrastructure and exports in Pakistan over the period 1990–2017. The empirical results revealed the existence of short- and long-term bi-directional causality concerning infrastructure and export in Pakistan. The results demonstrated that infrastructure strongly improves export in the short and long run. Conversely, export encourages the quality and availability of infrastructure in Pakistan in the long run. Furthermore, this study also uses sub-indices of infrastructure individually as dependent and independent variables. The study result demonstrated that the long- and short-term effects of infrastructure and its sub-indices (transport, electricity, communication, finance) on export is positive and significant. Also, when infrastructure sub-indices are used as dependent variables, the results indicate that the effect of export on sub-indices is positive and significant in the long run; however, in the short run, it is insignificant. The bi-directional linkage between infrastructure and export suggests that improving the quality and increasing the availability of infrastructure would enable Pakistan’s economy to catch up with the advanced economies, specifically in export. Furthermore, control variables of per-capita GDP, exchange rates, human capital, and domestic spending also expand the bi-directional causal relationship between Pakistan’s infrastructure and exports.

scholarly journals Trade and Economic Growth: The Case of India

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simran Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to investigate the short run as well as long run relationship between GDP, exports and imports for India using annual data from 1982 to 2016. Through this paper, I examine the four main hypotheses regarding the relation between exports, imports and economic growth. The first one is export-led growth hypothesis, the second one is the import-led growth hypothesis, the third one is the growth-led exports and lastly, the growth-led imports hypothesis. The Johansen’s cointegration is used to examine the long term relationship and empirical results indicate that there is a long run relationship between GDP, exports and imports. The short term relationship is measured using the Granger causality test and the statistical results suggest unidirectional causality from GDP to exports and GDP to imports in conformity with the growth-led exports and growth-led imports hypothesis respectively.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals Bootstrap ARDL Test on the Relationship among Trade, FDI and CO2 Emissions: Based on the Experience of BRICS Countries

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumei He ◽  
Ke-Chiun Chang ◽  
Min Li ◽  
Xueping Li ◽  
Fangjhy Li
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

We used the Bootstrap ARDL method to test the relationship between the export trades, FDI and CO2 emissions of the BRICS countries. We found that China's foreign direct investment and the lag one period of CO2 emissions have a cointegration on exports. South Africa's foreign direct investment and CO2 emissions have a cointegration relationship with the lag one period of exports, and South Africa's the lag one period of exports and foreign direct investment have a cointegration relationship with the lag one period of CO2 emissions. But whether it is China or South Africa, these three variables have no causal relationship in the long-term. Among the variables of other BRICS countries, Russia is the only country showed degenerate case #1 in McNown et al. mentioned in their paper. When we examined short-term causality, we found that CO2 emissions and export trade showed a reverse causal relationship, while FDI and carbon emissions were not so obvious. Export trade has a positive causal relationship with FDI. Those variables are different from different situations and different countries.

scholarly journals Spot and Derivative Contract Prices: Articulation of Relationships of Cardamom through ARDL Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3S2) ◽  
pp. 73-77
Keyword(s):  
Spot Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Commodity Exchange ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Period Derivative ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Relationship

India is known as land of spices and boast of a long history in spices trading. Cardamom derivative contract is listed for trading on Multi commodity Exchange in India. This paper endeavors to find out relationship between spot and derivative contract of cardamom. The relationship is also tested between derivative price of cardamom and spot price. Two period derivative contracts, near month contract and next contract of cardamom are used for the study. Long run relationship is examined through ARDL Bounds test. ECM is applied to find out short term relationship and speed of adjustment towards long run. Long run relationship was found between spot and derivative as well as between derivative and spot. Long run relationship was established in both period contracts. Short run relationship was also established and speed of adjustment is higher in near month contract.

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