scholarly journals Market Efficiency of Euro Exchange Rates and Trading Strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-19
Author(s):  
Mile Bošnjak ◽  
Ivan Novak ◽  
Davor Vlajčić
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Quantile Autoregression ◽  
Predictability Of Returns ◽  
Significant Linkage

Abstract This paper tests the hypothesis on market efficiency for returns on the euro against fifteen currencies while assuming predictability of returns, dependent on the sign and magnitude of endogenous shocks. Considering the properties of exchange rate returns, the quantile autoregression approach was selected in empirical analysis. Based on the research data sample, consisting of daily exchange rates between January first, 1999, and April thirty, 2020, the paper suggests profitable trading strategies depending on a currency pair. In the case of six out of fifteen currency pairs, exchange rate returns were found non-predictable or almost non-predictable. In the case of nine considered currency pairs, there was a significant linkage between current and past exchange rate returns, found as dependent on the sign and magnitude of endogenous shocks in exchange rate returns. Finally, the paper considered possible factors of inefficiency and suggested further research of the topic.

scholarly journals The Efficiency of the Polish Zloty Exchange Rate Market: The Uncovered Interest Parity and Fractal Analysis Approaches

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Czech ◽  
Łukasz Pietrych
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Fractal Analysis ◽  
Hurst Exponent ◽  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
Forward Premium Anomaly ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Research Problems ◽  
Interest Parity

The study of the effectiveness of the currency market is one of the most important research problems in the field of finance. The paper aims to assess the efficiency of the Polish zloty exchange rate market. We test the market efficiency by applying two independent approaches, one based on the Uncovered Interest Parity theory, and another based on the fractal analysis of exchange rates series. The research results show that the Uncovered Interest Parity holds only on the USD/PLN market. For EUR/PLN, JPY/PLN, CHF/PLN, MXN/PLN and TRY/PLN, the Uncovered Interest Parity hypothesis is rejected and implies the existence of the forward premium anomaly and market inefficiency. The estimated Hurst coefficient provides insight into the long-range dependence of exchange rates. The MXN/PLN, TRY/PLN and EUR/PLN exchange rates exhibit anti-persistent behaviours suggesting mean-reverting characteristics. For JPY/PLN and CHF/PLN, a high value of the Hurst exponent indicates long memory in the time series. Only for USD/PLN, we achieve the Hurst exponent closest to 0.5, which implies market efficiency. The research results obtained based on the UIP hypothesis and fractal analysis are consistent. The study reveals that the market efficiency hypothesis holds only for the most tradable Polish zloty currency pair, i.e., USD/PLN.

scholarly journals Market Efficiency of Exchange Rate of Bitcoin with Dollar and Rupiah of Foreign Exchange Markets: Weak and Semi-Strong Form Test

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Valenchya Kristina Umardi ◽  
Rizal Nora Amelda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
High Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Bitcoin is one of the cryptocurrencies that had a high rate of return since its appearance in 2009. However, the exchange rate of Bitcoin against any foreign currency is considered to have high volatility making it difficult to determine the real value of Bitcoin. The main purpose of this research is to find the value of Bitcoin, especially US Dollar and Rupiah currencies. The test is carried out using the weak market efficiency hypothesis and the semi-form market coefficient hypothesis. The data processing methods are used the stationary test (ADF, KPSS, and ERS) to test the efficiency of the weak form market and the cointegration test (Johansen Cointegration) with the VECM model to check the efficiency of the semi-strong market. The results show that the Bitcoin exchange rate does not have a unit root so it is inefficient in a weak form and has a negative effect on the USD / IDR exchange rate so that it is not efficient in semi-strong form as well as on the US Dollar and Rupiah exchange rates. This happens because Bitcoin transactions as a medium of exchange in Indonesia are still illegal. So that the Bitcoin exchange rate against the US Dollar and Rupiah exchange rates is biased because it does not reflect the available information, both historical information and public information. Keywords—Bitcoin Exchange Rate; Market Efficiency; Unit Root; Cointegration

Fear of Free Floating or Forced Exchange Rate Fixing

2004 ◽  
pp. 112-122
Author(s):  
O. Osipova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Float Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Arrangements ◽  
Pass Through

After the financial crisis at the end of the 1990 s many countries rejected fixed exchange rate policy. However actually they failed to proceed to announced "independent float" exchange rate arrangement. This might be due to the "fear of floating" or an irreversible result of inflation targeting central bank policy. In the article advantages and drawbacks of fixed and floating exchange rate arrangements are systematized. Features of new returning to exchange rates stabilization and possible risks of such policy for Russia are considered. Special attention is paid to the issue of choice of a "target" currency composite which can minimize external inflation pass-through.

ANALISIS EKSPOSUR EKONOMI DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA PADA PERUSAHAAN ROKOK YANG TERCATAT DI BEI

Wahana ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-109
Author(s):  
Ida Musdafia Ibrahim ◽  
Arif Haryono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Tobacco Industry ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Rate Risk

This study aims to analyze economic exposures and its factors namely exchange rates and inflation, that influence firm value as reflected through firm cash flow. Analytical method used Ordinary Least Square and eviews as analytical tool. This study used secondary data and cigarette industry companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange as samples along 2008 to 2017. Samples choosing method used purposive sampling based on determined criterias. The results showed that partially economic exposure had positive effects on firm value but insignificant. These could be seen from the economic exposure factors influncenced namely exchange rates and inflations.The exchange rate risk has low influenced cash flow was caused of the tobacco industry has low level of export/import.Enhance,inflation also had low effect on cash flow was caused of the tendency of cigarette consumers will continue to buy cigarettes even though its price increases. In short, economic exposure in the tobacco industry has low influence toward firms value. Hence, simultaneously changes in exchange rates and inflation which are economic exposure indicators have a significant effect on cash flows.  Keywords: Economic Exposure, Exchange Rate Risk, Inflation Risk, Firms Value, Cash Flow

Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Greenaway ◽  
Nelson C. Mark ◽  
Donggyu Sul ◽  
Jyh-Lin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Common Factors

South Africa’s Trade Performance under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 261
Author(s):  
Romaine Patrick ◽  
Phocenah Nyatanga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Price ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate

This study examined the effect exchange rates have on import and export volumes under alternative exchange rate policies adopted in South Africa over the period 1960 to 2017. Using quarterly time series data for the stated period, a log-linear error correction model is employed to estimate the country’s export and import elasticities, taking into account Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the real price of exports, the real price of imports and real exchange rates. Using the freely floating exchange rate regime as the base period, the study concluded that both export and import volumes are lower under a system of fixed exchange rates. Export and import volumes were also found to be lower under the dual exchange rate regime, relative to the freely floating exchange rate regime. In accordance with export-led growth strategies, exports were found to be higher and imports lower under a managed floating exchange rate regime. It is therefore recommended that South Africa revert to a more managed exchange rate regime, until the South African economy is developed to accommodate a freely floating exchange rate regime.

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