Global Demographic Change and the Case of Low Fertility

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
George W Leeson
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-93
Author(s):  
Asma' Rashidah Idris ◽  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
Ranjanee Kaliappan

This study investigates the effect of fertility on financial stability and its determinant particularly therelevance of demographic changes. This is motivated by the huge impact of demographic changes(increasing ageing population and low fertility level). Population ageing and low fertility tend to lowerboth labour- force participation and saving rates (change bank business model), thereby raising concernson a future slowing economic growth and financial instability. The system GMM results show that thefertility level somehow acts as a buffer and reflects to the degree of stability to the financial system. Anincrease in fertility and old-age population will contribute to lowering the financial stability. As a matterof policy implication, the nations, financial sectors, and economies should take pro-active active stepsand enhance policies in handling the inter-related issue of the ageing population, decreasing fertility, andfinancial stability especially in developed countries, but not necessarily to overlook the impact of theissues in developing countries. Keywords: Demographic change, old-age population, fertility, financial stability


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Barry Edmonston

One key aspect of the demographic transition—the shift from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility is a major change in the population’s age distribution from a pyramid-shaped young age structure to a pillar-shaped old age structure. This paper discusses two demographic processes affected by changes in age structure. First, there are effects on vital rates, with important differences in the observed crude rates and the implied intrinsic vital rates. Second, changes in age structure influence population momentum. More recently, demographers have noted that older age distributions associated with fertility levels below replacement have negative population momentum. Although the demographic transition has been well-described for many countries, demographers have seldom analyzed intrinsic vital rates and population momentum over time, which are dynamic processes affected by changes in the population age structure and which, in turn, influence future changes in population growth and size. This paper uses new data and methods to analyze intrinsic vital rates and population momentum across two centuries of demographic change in Canada 


2009 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
John MacInnes ◽  
Julio Pérez Díaz

We suggest that a third revolution alongside the better known economic and political ones has been vital to the rise of modernity: the reproductive revolution, comprising a historically unrepeatable shift in the efficiency of human reproduction which for the first time brought demographic security. As well as highlighting the contribution of demographic change to the rise of modernity and addressing the limitations of orthodox theories of the demographic transition, the concept of the reproductive revolution offers a better way to integrate sociology and demography. The former has tended to pay insufficient heed to sexual reproduction, individual mortality and the generational replacement of population, while the latter has undervalued its own distinctive theoretical contribution, portraying demographic change as the effect of causes lying elsewhere. We outline a theory of the reproductive revolution, review some relevant supporting empirical evidence and briefly discuss its implications both for demographic transition theory itself, and for a range of key social changes that we suggest it made possible: the decline of patriarchy and feminisation of the public sphere, the deregulation and privatisation of sexuality, family change, the rise of identity, ‘low’ fertility and ‘population ageing’.


2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
JEFFREY BROWN ◽  
STEVEN HABERMAN ◽  
MOSHE MILEVSKY ◽  
MIKE ORSZAG

The next few decades will be a period of rapid demographic change that will present significant challenges to both public and private pension systems. In the next five decades, reasonably conservative estimates are that the proportion of the population aged over 65 in the developed world will roughly double. This shift in the age structure of the population will naturally create wide-ranging economic and political strains, particularly where pension provision relies extensively on pay-as-you-go systems that are inherently sensitive to demographic change.In addition to stress caused by a shift in the age structure of the population, low fertility experience of many countries, particularly in continental Europe, will lead to substantial declines in the working age population in the next couple of decades. A decline in the availability of workers will pose challenges for firms who are likely to be under increasing pressure to attract and retain key workers. These pressures could lead to a growth in employer-provided pensions.


Author(s):  
Stijn Hoorens ◽  
Jack Clift ◽  
Laura Staetsky ◽  
Barbara Janta ◽  
Stephanie Diepeveen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 199-209
Author(s):  
Mike B. Dodd ◽  
Katherine N. Tozer ◽  
Iris Vogeler ◽  
Rose Greenfield ◽  
David R. Stevens ◽  
...  

The improvement in forage quality and quantity of summer-dry hill country pasture resulting from the introduction of clover is well recognised. However, ensuring the persistence of the commonly availablecultivars is challenging, in the face of seasonal moisture stress, intensive grazing, competition from established well-adapted pasture species, low soil fertility and low soil pH – conditions typical of the East Coast of the North Island. Here we quantify the value proposition associated with the introduction of white clover into a case study on a Gisborne sheep and beef farm, using a six-step process. A topographically explicit approach is taken, using an understanding of the underlying spatial variability, based on a combination of soil and pasture measurements, APSIM simulation modelling of pasture growth and farm system modelling of enterprise performance. We show that from a baseline of a typical low-fertility, diverse species hill country pasture, white clover introduction can increase spring and summer forage consumption by 17%, enabling inclusion of an additional 6-month bull finishing enterprise generating a 32% greater carcass weight production and leading to a 49% improvement in farm system EBIT. This represents a positive net present value of over $360,000 for the original investment in white clover establishment into existing pastures.


Author(s):  
J.S. Clark

Agroforests and woodlots offer Northland hill country farmers investment and diversification opportunities. Agroforests have less effect on the "whole farm" financial position than woodlots, especially where a progressive planting regime is adopted and where no further borrowing is required. Establishment and tending costs for agro-forests are lower, and returns come much sooner. The proven opportunity for continued grazing under trees established in this manner, apart from a short post-planting period, further enhances the agroforesty option. Even where there is reluctance on a farmer's part to plant trees on high fertility land, the expected financial returns from agroforests on low and medium fertility land will increase the overall long-term profitability and flexibility of the whole farming operation. Woodlots may be more appropriate on low fertility areas where weed reversion is likely. Joint ventures may be worth considering where farm finances are a limited factor. Keywords: On-farm forestry development, Northland hill country, agroforestry, woodlots, diversification, joint ventures, progressive planting regimes, grazing availability.


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