scholarly journals The Effect of Demographic Change on Financial Stability

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-93
Author(s):  
Asma' Rashidah Idris ◽  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
Ranjanee Kaliappan

This study investigates the effect of fertility on financial stability and its determinant particularly therelevance of demographic changes. This is motivated by the huge impact of demographic changes(increasing ageing population and low fertility level). Population ageing and low fertility tend to lowerboth labour- force participation and saving rates (change bank business model), thereby raising concernson a future slowing economic growth and financial instability. The system GMM results show that thefertility level somehow acts as a buffer and reflects to the degree of stability to the financial system. Anincrease in fertility and old-age population will contribute to lowering the financial stability. As a matterof policy implication, the nations, financial sectors, and economies should take pro-active active stepsand enhance policies in handling the inter-related issue of the ageing population, decreasing fertility, andfinancial stability especially in developed countries, but not necessarily to overlook the impact of theissues in developing countries. Keywords: Demographic change, old-age population, fertility, financial stability

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Börsch-Supan ◽  
Felizia Hanemann ◽  
Brian Beach ◽  
Didier Halimi ◽  
Susana Harding ◽  
...  

Abstract What governs labour force participation in later life and why is it so different across countries? Health and labour force participation in older ages are not strongly linked, but we observe a large variation across countries in old-age labour force participation. This points to the important role of country-specific regulations governing pension receipt and old-age labour force participation. In addition to the statutory eligibility age for a pension, such country-specific regulations include: earnings tests that limit the amount of earnings when pension benefits are received; the amount of benefit deductions for early retirement; the availability of part-time pensions before normal retirement; special regulations that permit early retirement for certain population groups; and either subsidies or extra costs for employers if they keep older employees in their labour force. This paper asks two questions: Can we link a relatively low labour force participation at ages 60–64 to country-specific regulations that make early retirement attractive? and Can we link a relatively high labour force participation at ages 65–74 to country-specific regulations that make late retirement attractive? To answer these questions, we compared the experiences in a set of developed countries around the world in order to understand better the impact of country-specific rules and laws on work and retirement behaviour at older ages and, by consequence, on the financial sustainability of pension systems.


2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Murat Yucesahin ◽  
Tuğba Adalı ◽  
A Sinan Türkyılmaz

Compared to its past structure, Turkey is now a country with low levels of fertility and mortality. This junction that Turkey now has reached is associated with a number of risks, such as an ageing population, and a decreasing working-age population. The antinatalist policy era of Turkey was followed by a period of maintenance, yet the recent demographic changes formed the basis of a pronatalist population policy from the government’s view. This study discusses the link between demographic change and population policies in Turkey. It further aims to position Turkey spatially in relation to selected countries that are in various stages of their demographic transitions with different population policies, using a multidimensional scaling approach with data on 25 selected countries from the UN. The analysis is based on a 34-year period, 1975-2009, so as to better demonstrate Turkey’s international position on a social map, past and present. Our findings suggest that Turkey’s position on the social map shifted towards developed countries over time in terms of demographic indicators and population policies. 


2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 925-943 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadiya Kelle

AbstractGiven an ageing population and increased participation by women in the labour force, the relationship between unpaid care and the availability of women to the labour force is gaining in importance as an issue. This article assesses the impact of unpaid care on transitions into employment by women aged between 45 and 59 years. It uses the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) from the years 2001–2014 to estimate Cox regression models for 6,201 employed women. The results indicate that women with higher caring responsibilities and women with lower caring responsibilities are heterogeneous in terms of the socio-economic characteristics that they exhibit: higher-intensity care providers tend to have a lower level of educational attainment and a weaker attachment to the labour force than women with less-intensive caring responsibilities. Furthermore, while women with more-intensive caring roles are highly likely to exit the labour market altogether, female carers with less-intensive roles seem to be able to combine work and care better. These results highlight the importance of providing more affordable institutional and professional care services, especially for low- and medium-income families.


2022 ◽  
pp. 31-43
Author(s):  
Atul Bamrara

Global environmental troubles are gaining significance because of the speedy and antagonistic speed of urbanization. Environmental degradation restricts the flow of environmental services. Dumping of pollutants in excess of its assimilative capacity into air, water, and soil results in deterioration of the quality of these vital resources. The nature of environmental problem depends upon the level of economic development and the geographical condition of the area under consideration. India being a developing economy with a low per capita income, high population density, agriculture-dependent labour force, and high percentage of rural areas, the problems here are different from those in developed countries. The chapter highlights the impact of knowledge regarding environmental protection issues on environmental degradation.


Author(s):  
Mary Helen McSweeney-Feld

An ageing population and expected future increases in the demand for long-term care services are important policy concerns in many European countries. According to the 2010 Eurobarometer survey 73, Europe faces major structural changes globalization, climate change and an ageing population (European Commission, 2010). Many Europeans also feel that families have to provide too much support for their older, dependent persons. Similar concerns have been expressed by individuals and policymakers in the US (Kinsella and He, 2009). These concerns are further exacerbated by the recent global economic downturn and the European and US financial bailout packages, which are only a short-term remedy to the complex issue of ageing in these geographic areas. This paper looks at the health and welfare systems of Europe and the United States, the scope of graying demographics in these areas, and the impact that these factors have on future financial stability in light of our attempts to recover from the current economic downturn. It also examines a number of potential solutions for economic recovery in an ageing society.


2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (4II) ◽  
pp. 261-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rehana Siddiqui ◽  
Ghulam Samad ◽  
Muhammad Nasir ◽  
Hafiz Hanzla Jalil

It is necessary for a country to make its agriculture sector efficient to enhance food security, quality of life and to promote rapid economic growth. The evidence from least developed countries (LDCs) indicates that agriculture sector accounts for a large share in their gross domestic product (GDP). Thus the development of the economy cannot be achieved without improving the agriculture sector. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan (2011-12) its main natural resource is arable land and agriculture sector’s contribution to the GDP is 21 percent. The agricultural sector absorbs 45 percent of labour force and its share in exports is 18 percent. Given the role of agricultural sector in economic growth and its sensitivity to change in temperature and precipitation it is important to study the impact of climate change on major crops in Pakistan. There are two crops seasons in Pakistan namely, Rabi and Kharif. Rabi crops are grown normally in the months of November to April and Kharif crops are grown from May to October. These two seasons make Pakistan an agricultural economy and its performance depends on the climate during the whole year. Climate change generally affects agriculture through changes in temperature, precipitation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 89 (6) ◽  
pp. A4.2-A4
Author(s):  
Alice Powell ◽  
Paul Finucane ◽  
Martin Jude ◽  
Jenna Mewburn ◽  
Katherine Mohr ◽  
...  

IntroductionDemographic changes are leading to an ageing population with a disproportionate increase in the oldest old. Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in Australia and is particularly prevalent in the elderly. The Murrumbidgee region has a population profile that is 14 years ahead of national Australia and therefore data from this population portends how stroke may present nationally in the future. Existing research suggests that stroke risk factors, subtype, treatment provided and outcomes differ between younger and older demographic groups. This study seeks to build a profile of the experiences of stroke in the oldest old and compare variables with two younger cohorts to test a number of hypotheses about background, treatment and outcomes.MethodsData was collected retrospectively from the electronic medical records of 100 stroke patients consecutively admitted to the Wagga Wagga Rural Referral Hospital Acute Stroke Unit. They were split into three demographic groups; young old, 65–74 old (75 to 84) and oldest old (85 and older) and comparisons were made of baseline functional status and risk factor profile, stroke type, stroke treatment and outcomes.ResultsOlder people admitted with stroke were more likely to be female with poorer premorbid functional status and higher numbers living in residential care. Atrial fibrillation (p=0.008) and hypertension (p=0.01) were significantly more common with advancing age while rates of smoking (p=0.006) were higher in younger patients. Stroke mechanism was predominantly cardioembolic in older patients and embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) in the youngest group. Stroke severity and stroke treatment did not vary according to age. However, outcomes were poorer with rates of dependency (p=0.03) and residential aged care facility placement (p=0.06) increased among older patients post stroke.ConclusionThese data provide an indication of how stroke may manifest in our ageing population in the future.


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Mazlynda Md Yusuf ◽  
Sarina Mohamed ◽  
Mohamad Yazis Ali Basah

An ageing population is a worldwide phenomenon, as the results of improvement in mortality rates and drops in fertility rate over the past century. Previously, this trend was focused among the developed countries of Europe and North America but over the past 20 years, the ageing population has started to grow in the developing countries, especially countries of Southeast Asia such as Malaysia. Given changes in fertility and improving life expectancy, the figure is expected to increase significantly. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, it is estimated that 6.5% of the total population is aged 65 and above in 2018 and this figure is expected to increase to 14.5% in 2040. With the current changes in the demographic trend, it is expected that there will be changes in the amount of savings and this could also lead to changes in the economic performances in the future. Thus, the main objective of this study is to examine the impact of the ageing population on economic growth in Malaysia by using annual data from the year 1985 to 2016. Total fertility rates, life expectancy, labour force participation rate and old-dependency ratio are variables that are used in the study. These data were analysed using Multiple Linear Regression Model and the results indicate that Malaysia is expected to experience the ageing population in the future and that it gives effect towards Malaysian's economic growth. Keywords: ageing population; economic growth; life expectancy; labour force participation; old-dependency ratio; fertility rates


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Dudchenko

This paper is devoted to defining the role of the central bank in ensuring banking and financial stability. The main purpose of the study is to assess the direction and strength of the impact of central bank independence in terms of its individual aspects on the parameters of banking and financial stability for different groups of countries. Systematization of literature sources and the results of existing empirical research has shown that the expected effects of increasing the independence of the central bank are to improve banking and financial stability. For the study, a sample of statistical data for 10 developed and 10 developing countries for the period 1991-2012 was formed. The methodological basis of the study were the tools of panel regression modeling with fixed effects with Stata software use. The article presents the results of empirical analysis, which showed that the independence of the central bank is an important factor in ensuring banking stability. At the same time, the impact on financial stability has not been conclusively confirmed. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that the stage of development of the country determines the strength of such influence. Thus, developed countries generally show closer links between central bank independence and banking and financial stability, which in most cases are directly dependent, while developing countries have less lasting effects. The results of the analysis of the links between certain aspects of central bank independence and the level of banking and financial stability are of great practical value. The results of the study create a scientific basis for substantiating the sequence of actions aimed at strengthening the independence of the central bank. Thus, in developing countries, the focus should be on defining and prioritizing central bank goals, while developed countries should take a deeper approach to this issue and ensure the independence of monetary policy and financial independence of the central bank. Keywords: central bank, independence, banking stability, financial stability, Z-score, non-performing loans, capitalization, developed countries, developing countries, panel data.


2021 ◽  
Vol IV (4) ◽  
pp. 6-15
Author(s):  
Titu-Marius I. Băjenescu ◽  

Old age is difficult to define, so many terms overlap or clash with each other, all of which raise a number of issues: the elderly, the third age, the fourth age, senior citizens, pensioners, etc. It is not easy to determine the threshold for entering the period of life commonly known as old age. One thing is certain, old age has changed profoundly. From now on, it has become for everyone, albeit with profound inequalities, a normal stage of life. Social security systems combined with the considerable progress in medicine have made it possible to increase the length of retirement. Whereas in 1950 a man retiring at 65 could expect to live for about 12 years, today life expectancy at 60 is over 20 years for men and over 25 years for women. However, this simple observation has much more complex consequences in terms of the social identity, integration and social behaviour of these new population groups. Despite an ageing population, Switzerland has a total labour force of 4.706 million people. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the participation rate of the population aged 15 and over was 68.1%. This puts the country in second place in Europe behind Iceland (79.9%). Switzerland's neighbouring states have significantly lower levels (Germany: 62.6%, Austria: 61.4%; France: 55.5%, Italy: 49.9%). In particular, Switzerland has one of the highest rates of employed women in Europe. The percentage of employed women increased significantly between 2010 and 2019, from 56.9% to 60%.


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