scholarly journals Introduction: a forum for developing ideas and solutions to pension challenges

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
JEFFREY BROWN ◽  
STEVEN HABERMAN ◽  
MOSHE MILEVSKY ◽  
MIKE ORSZAG
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Private Pension ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Developed World

The next few decades will be a period of rapid demographic change that will present significant challenges to both public and private pension systems. In the next five decades, reasonably conservative estimates are that the proportion of the population aged over 65 in the developed world will roughly double. This shift in the age structure of the population will naturally create wide-ranging economic and political strains, particularly where pension provision relies extensively on pay-as-you-go systems that are inherently sensitive to demographic change.In addition to stress caused by a shift in the age structure of the population, low fertility experience of many countries, particularly in continental Europe, will lead to substantial declines in the working age population in the next couple of decades. A decline in the availability of workers will pose challenges for firms who are likely to be under increasing pressure to attract and retain key workers. These pressures could lead to a growth in employer-provided pensions.

scholarly journals Two centuries of demographic change in Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Barry Edmonston
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Negative Population

One key aspect of the demographic transition—the shift from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility is a major change in the population’s age distribution from a pyramid-shaped young age structure to a pillar-shaped old age structure. This paper discusses two demographic processes affected by changes in age structure. First, there are effects on vital rates, with important differences in the observed crude rates and the implied intrinsic vital rates. Second, changes in age structure influence population momentum. More recently, demographers have noted that older age distributions associated with fertility levels below replacement have negative population momentum. Although the demographic transition has been well-described for many countries, demographers have seldom analyzed intrinsic vital rates and population momentum over time, which are dynamic processes affected by changes in the population age structure and which, in turn, influence future changes in population growth and size. This paper uses new data and methods to analyze intrinsic vital rates and population momentum across two centuries of demographic change in Canada 

scholarly journals Mortality, fertility, and economic development: An analysis of 201 countries from 1960 to 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingfeng Li ◽  
Amy O. Tsui ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Saifuddin Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Northern Africa ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population

Background: The efficient utilization of the economic opportunities effected by rapid reductions in fertility and mortality is known as the demographic dividend. In this paper, our objectives are to (1) estimate the contribution of fertility and mortality decline during the period 1960-2015 to demographic dividend due to change in age structure, and (2) assess the economic consequences of population age structure change. Methods: Employing the cohort component method, we performed population projections with different scenarios of changes in mortality and fertility between 1960 and 2015 in 201 countries. We specifically focused on low- and middle-income countries in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Northern Africa, and sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) Results: The child dependency ratio, defined as the number of children (0-14 years) per 100 working age population (15-64 years), would be 54 higher than the observed level in 2015 in both Asia and LAC, had fertility not declined. That means that every 100 working age population would need to support an additional 54 children. Due to the less substantial fertility decline, child dependency ratio would only be 16 higher if there were no fertility decline in SSA. Global GDP (constant 2011 international $) would be $19,016 billion less than the actual level in 2015 had the fertility decline during 1960-2015 not occurred, while the respective regional decreases are $12,390 billion in Asia, $1,985 billion in LAC, $484 billion in Northern Africa, and $321 billion in SSA. Conclusions: SSA countries may accelerate the catch-up process in reducing fertility by investing more in family planning programs. This will lead to a more favorable dependency ratio and consequently facilitate a demographic dividend opportunity in SSA, which, if properly utilized, will spur economic development for the coming decades.

scholarly journals Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan?

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Durr-e- Nayab
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Old Age Security ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population

Population growth and size have remained the focus of debate for centuries but the recent demographic transition in developing countries has made social scientists take note of the changing age structure of the population as well. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working-age population is increasing in most developing countries. An associated decline in the dependent age population offers a window of opportunity, referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’. Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, and is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines. This paper looks into the demographic dividend being offered to Pakistan and its implications for the country, mainly through three mechanisms: labour supply, savings, and human capital. For economic benefits to materialise, there is a need for policies dealing with education, public health, and those that promote labour market flexibility and provide incentives for investment and savings. On the contrary, if appropriate policies are not formulated, the demographic dividend might, in fact, be a cost, leading to unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health, and old age security.

scholarly journals Population development in Finland - a challenge for society!

1993 ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
Mauri Nieminen
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Development ◽  
World War ◽  
The World ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Age Pyramid ◽  
Third Person ◽  
Working Age Population

The most significant factor shaping the Finnish age pyramid has been fertility. After World War II fertility took an unprecedented climb. When fertility was at its highest in 1947, the total fertility rate was 3.46. After this fertility began to drop year by year. Because of the large proportion of the population composed by those of working age, Finland has had a favorable age structure compared to that of other countries. Finland’s working-age population has been one of the highest in the world. But in the future this favorable age structure will change and the proportion of aging population will increase rapidly. In 2030 almost every third person will be over 65 years old in Finland.

scholarly journals The Link Between Demography and Labour Markets in sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evert-jan Quak
Keyword(s):  
Labour Markets ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Female Labour ◽  
Labour Participation ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Sub Saharan

This rapid review synthesises the literature from academic, policy, and knowledge institution sources on how demography affects labour markets (e.g. entrants, including youth and women) and labour market outcomes (e.g. capital-per-worker, life-cycle labour supply, human capital investments) in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. One of the key findings is that the fast-growing population in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to affect the ability to get productive jobs and in turn economic growth. This normally happens when workers move from traditional (low productivity agriculture and household businesses) sectors into higher productivity sectors in manufacturing and services. In theory the literature shows that lower dependency ratios (share of the non-working age population) should increase output per capita if labour force participation rates among the working age population remain unchanged. If output per worker stays constant, then a decline in dependency ratio would lead to a rise in income per capita. Macro simulation models for sub-Saharan Africa estimate that capital per worker will remain low due to consistently low savings for at least the next decades, even in the low fertility scenario. Sub-Saharan African countries seem too poor for a quick rise in savings. As such, it is unlikely that a lower dependency ratio will initiate a dramatic increase in labour productivity. The literature notes the gender implications on labour markets. Most women combine unpaid care for children with informal and low productive work in agriculture or family enterprises. Large family sizes reduce their productive labour years significantly, estimated at a reduction of 1.9 years of productive participation per woman for each child, that complicates their move into more productive work (if available). If the transition from high fertility to low fertility is permanent and can be established in a relatively short-term period, there are long-run effects on female labour participation, and the gains in income per capita will be permanent. As such from the literature it is clear that the effect of higher female wages on female labour participation works to a large extent through reductions in fertility.

The Dialectic of Public and Private Pensions

1985 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herman Van Gunsteren ◽  
Martin Rein
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Welfare States ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Private Pension ◽  
Private Pensions ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Institutional Contexts ◽  
Over Time

AbstractComplex images of the differences between public and private activities are endemic in modern capitalist societies. Numerous examples can be found in the field of social policy, but this paper focuses on the historical dialectic between public and private pension arrangements. It compares the interaction over time in a number of countries of the central principles of solidarity and equivalence which have shaped the development of pension provision. Then it illustrates how an understanding of contemporary pressures for the privatization of pension arrangements as a response to the fiscal crisis of welfare states cannot be divorced from their historical and institutional contexts. The paper concludes that pluralistic pension systems offer the best prospect for rational policy analysis and debate provided that a continuing critique of, and dialogue between, the different sectors is encouraged to flourish.

Evolution of loss due to event of undetermined intent among the Moscow working-age population in the 2000s

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (Special Issue) ◽  
Author(s):  
Semyonova V. G. ◽  
◽  
Ivanova A. E. ◽  
Sabgayda T. P. ◽  
Zubko A. V. ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Undetermined Intent ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population

X-ray computer densitometry in the diagnosis of fat hepatosis

2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (10) ◽  
pp. 681-686
Author(s):  
Valentin N. Druzhinin ◽  
Vadim G. Suvorov ◽  
Nikolay V. Druzhinin ◽  
Aleksandr N. Cherniyi ◽  
Sergey N. Troynyakov
Keyword(s):  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Liver Disease ◽  
Fatty Liver ◽  
Abdominal Obesity ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Liver Parenchyma ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Fat Liver

Currently, the problem of reducing the risk of developing fat liver hepatosis from exposure to household and industrial toxicants among the working-age population continues to be an important medical and social problem, since not timely diagnosis of the disease can lead to its progressive course with the development of inflammatory changes, necrosis and liver fibrosis up to cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer. In this regard, the search for methods and techniques that optimize the diagnosis of fat hepatosis is relevant. Modern methods of radiation diagnostics of liver density characteristics can significantly reduce subjectivity in the assessment of changes due to the use of quantitative indicators. The aim of study - improving the quality of x-ray diagnostics of fat liver disease based on a precision assessment of the density of the liver parenchyma using computed tomography. A comparative retrospective analysis of the results of a comprehensive clinical and radiological examination of 115 men of working age in the range of 40-55 years was performed. The main group (48 people) - employees of machine-building plants: shapers, stumpers, fitters-assemblers who had industrial contact with such factors as local vibration, dust, noise, muscle strain, burdened with a long alcoholic history and the presence of signs of metabolic syndrome: hyperlipidemia, impaired tolerance to carbohydrates, diabetes, abdominal obesity. The comparison group included representatives of auxiliary professions without clinical signs of pathology (47 people), comparable in age and experience with the main group. X-ray examinations were performed using computer tomographs: "HI Spead CT/e Dual" by GE Medical Systems and "Aqulion 64" by Toshiba. To measure the liver density in Hounsfield units (HU), the ROI (zone of interest) tool was used, which allows determining the desired value over areas of different dimensions. Measurements were performed on computer screens in 4 zones of interest at 4 levels of scanning of the liver lobes (apex, level of the caval gate, level of the left lobe, level of the portal gate) with the calculation of the average values of the density index (IDH) and density gradients (IDG) relative to the aorta, spleen and kidney. Analysis of the results of a posteriori CT densitometry of various parts of the liver within the framework of the developed algorithm, including the use of absolute and relative (gradient) x-ray density indicators of hepatic, vascular (aorta),splenic and renal structures, allowed us to expand our understanding of the quantitative density characteristics both in normal and in patients with signs of diffuse fat hepatosis (FH). It was found that the liver parenchyma density indicators can be a kind of (conditional), sometimes the only indicators of the degree of severity of changes that objectively manifest positive or negative dynamics of pathophysiological processes and, in particular, at the initial stages of the development of the studied pathology. Density differences in the right and left liver parenchyma in the control group (conditional norm) in terms of absolute density and its gradient, regardless of the level of scanning, were insignificant (statistically unreliable). In patients with clinical signs of fatty liver infiltration at the stage of steatosis, in the absence of x-ray morphologically detectable structural changes, a decrease in IDH and the dynamics of its increase (recovery) at various stages of observation were revealed. Even with comparatively equal IDH of the evaluated departments, the IDG of different people differed, manifesting the individuality of metabolic processes occurring in the body, in particular in the liver, is a kind of indicator of their direction and severity. The significance of density indicators as predictors of the subsequent stages of the pathology under consideration was particularly evident in the analysis of the results of primary diagnostics and its development in the dynamics of observations. The application of the developed methodological approach allowed us to expand our understanding of the possibilities of KT-liver densitometry in patients with metabolic syndrome (hyperlipidemia, impaired carbohydrate tolerance, diabetes mellitus, abdominal obesity) in the diagnosis of fatty liver disease (FLD) at various stages of examination, including in the early subclinical phases of pathology development. The results obtained indicate the predominant role of ethyl alcohol as a hepatotoxicant in the development of FLD in the estimated cohort of the working-age population. The use of an original algorithm for evaluating tissue density makes it possible to significantly ensure the objectivity of the interpretation of research results.

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