scholarly journals Two centuries of demographic change in Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Barry Edmonston
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Negative Population

One key aspect of the demographic transition—the shift from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility is a major change in the population’s age distribution from a pyramid-shaped young age structure to a pillar-shaped old age structure. This paper discusses two demographic processes affected by changes in age structure. First, there are effects on vital rates, with important differences in the observed crude rates and the implied intrinsic vital rates. Second, changes in age structure influence population momentum. More recently, demographers have noted that older age distributions associated with fertility levels below replacement have negative population momentum. Although the demographic transition has been well-described for many countries, demographers have seldom analyzed intrinsic vital rates and population momentum over time, which are dynamic processes affected by changes in the population age structure and which, in turn, influence future changes in population growth and size. This paper uses new data and methods to analyze intrinsic vital rates and population momentum across two centuries of demographic change in Canada 

scholarly journals Human population growth and the demographic transition

2009 ◽  
Vol 364 (1532) ◽  
pp. 2985-2990 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Bongaarts
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Human Population ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Demographic Transitions ◽  
The World ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Older Populations ◽  
Developed World

The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women's fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation.

Irish Demography in a Comparative Context: European Transition Theory vs. A Post-Colonial Understanding

1999 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. White
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Irish Society ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Post Colonial ◽  
Demographic Patterns

While studies of Irish society have concentrated on the effects of colonialism on late industrialisation and Irish social life, less work has been done on the uniqueness of Irish demographic change and its connection to the country's colonial past. The present article argues that Ireland demographic history has more in common with post-colonial societies than with European states that went through the so-called demographic transition. Irish demographic patterns differ even from peripheral societies of Europe, primarily because its historic pattern of emigration allowed for a stable population despite relatively high birth rates and rapidly declining death rates. Ireland's recent economic success, however, has dramatically altered this historic pattern and its vital rates now correspond more closely to the pattern of European countries that experienced an early demographic transition.

scholarly journals Population dynamics and economic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Andrea Caravaggio ◽  
Luca Gori ◽  
Mauro Sodini
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Time Optimal ◽  
Per Capita

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This research develops a continuous-time optimal growth model that accounts for population dynamics resembling the historical pattern of the demographic transition. The Ramsey model then becomes able to generate multiple determinate or indeterminate stationary equilibria and explain the process of the transition from a state with high fertility and low income per capita to a state with low fertility and high income per capita. The article also investigates the emergence of damped or persistent cyclical dynamics.</p>

The Demographic Transition

1984 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 531-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansley J. Coale
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Industrial State ◽  
Simple Link

Demographic transition is a set of changes in reproductive behaviour that are experienced as a society is transformed from a traditional pre-industrial state to a highly developed, modernized structure. The transformation is the substitution of slow growth achieved with low fertility and mortality for slow growth maintained with relatively high fertility and mortality rates. Contrary to early descriptions of the transition, fertility in pre-modem societies was well below the maximum that might be attained. However, it was kept at moderate levels by customs (such as late marriage or prolonged breast-feeding) not related to the number of children already born. Fertility has been reduced during the demographic transition by the adoption of contraception as a deliberate means of avoiding additional births. An extensive study of the transition in Europe shows the absence of a simple link of fertility with education, proportion urban, infant mortality and other aspects of development. It also suggests the importance of such cultural factors as common customs associated with a common language, and the strength of religious traditions. Sufficient modernization nevertheless seems always to bring the transition to low fertility and mortality.

scholarly journals The Reproductive Revolution

2009 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
John MacInnes ◽  
Julio Pérez Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Human Reproduction ◽  
Social Changes ◽  
Theoretical Contribution ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
First Time

We suggest that a third revolution alongside the better known economic and political ones has been vital to the rise of modernity: the reproductive revolution, comprising a historically unrepeatable shift in the efficiency of human reproduction which for the first time brought demographic security. As well as highlighting the contribution of demographic change to the rise of modernity and addressing the limitations of orthodox theories of the demographic transition, the concept of the reproductive revolution offers a better way to integrate sociology and demography. The former has tended to pay insufficient heed to sexual reproduction, individual mortality and the generational replacement of population, while the latter has undervalued its own distinctive theoretical contribution, portraying demographic change as the effect of causes lying elsewhere. We outline a theory of the reproductive revolution, review some relevant supporting empirical evidence and briefly discuss its implications both for demographic transition theory itself, and for a range of key social changes that we suggest it made possible: the decline of patriarchy and feminisation of the public sphere, the deregulation and privatisation of sexuality, family change, the rise of identity, ‘low’ fertility and ‘population ageing’.

scholarly journals Introduction: a forum for developing ideas and solutions to pension challenges

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
JEFFREY BROWN ◽  
STEVEN HABERMAN ◽  
MOSHE MILEVSKY ◽  
MIKE ORSZAG
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Private Pension ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Developed World

The next few decades will be a period of rapid demographic change that will present significant challenges to both public and private pension systems. In the next five decades, reasonably conservative estimates are that the proportion of the population aged over 65 in the developed world will roughly double. This shift in the age structure of the population will naturally create wide-ranging economic and political strains, particularly where pension provision relies extensively on pay-as-you-go systems that are inherently sensitive to demographic change.In addition to stress caused by a shift in the age structure of the population, low fertility experience of many countries, particularly in continental Europe, will lead to substantial declines in the working age population in the next couple of decades. A decline in the availability of workers will pose challenges for firms who are likely to be under increasing pressure to attract and retain key workers. These pressures could lead to a growth in employer-provided pensions.

scholarly journals DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES IN MALAYSIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan Elsawahli ◽  
Faizah Ahmad ◽  
Azlan Shah Ali
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Successful Aging ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Development Goals

As a developing country, Malaysia is undergoing a demographic transition from a high fertility and mortality rural society towards an industrialised society with low fertility and mortality rates. This transition involved an increased growth rate of elderly population. The number of elderly has risen from 1.4 million in 2000 to 2.1 million in 2010 and is projected to be 3.4 million by 2020. A population aging needs to accumulate assets in order to achieve sustainable development goals. This represents the main challenge to planners and policy makers in terms of designing aged-friendly neighbourhoods to meet the elderly needs. This paper aims to review the population aging trends and policy framework available for the elderly in Malaysia. The paper further discusses the sustainable neighbourhoods related to active aging. The paper concludes by identifying fundamental gaps in both knowledge and policy associated with planning for the aging population and successful aging.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity in ‘High Fertility’ Societies. Insights From Compositional Demography

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 106-111
Author(s):  
Hilde Bras
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Farm Workers ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Reproductive Behaviors ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Reproductive Management ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Different Characteristics

Demographic transition theory has been conducive to a rather dichotomous view of global fertility: traditional versus modern, high versus low fertility. The knowledge that high fertility could be achieved by subpopulations with different characteristics and reproductive behaviors somehow vanished from (historical) demographers' attention. This study unpacks heterogeneity in a 'high fertility' society, i.e. 19th-century Zeeland, the Netherlands. Sequence and cluster analysis were employed to distinguish groups with disparate reproductive trajectories with data from Genlias/LINKS including 15,014 full birth histories and 87,204 observed live births over the period 1811–1911. Multilevel binomial logistic regression models of membership of the two discerned high fertility subgroups were then estimated. The 'Traditional 1' subpopulation, with 10.5 children per woman on average, was composed of skilled, unskilled, and farm workers living in rural areas. Couples married early and were characterized by large spousal age gaps. The 'Traditional 2' subpopulation had on average 7.2 children per woman, more often lived in towns, married significantly later, and had more equal gender relations. Compositional demography, revealing subpopulations with divergent cultures of marital self-restraint and reproductive management, not only nuances previous (historical) demographic findings, but may well offer more tools to develop family planning and reproductive health policies than the demographic transition model does.

6. The demographic transition—centrepiece of demography

2018 ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
Sarah Harper
Keyword(s):  
High Mortality ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Causal Models ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
The South ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

The demographic transition is regarded as a centrepiece of demography. It is the series of changes that occur as countries evolve from a stable state of high mortality and high fertility to one of low mortality and low fertility, but its timing and drivers are strongly debated. ‘The demographic transition—centrepiece of demography’ explains that demographic transition theory can be divided into three broad components: first, the changes over time in mortality and fertility, based on clear data and therefore generally uncontested; second, and the most controversial, the construction of causal models to explain the timing, pace, and drivers of these changes; and third, the attempt to predict future changes especially for countries of the South.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES IN MALAYSIA

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan Elsawahli ◽  
Faizah Ahmad ◽  
Azlan Shah Ali
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Successful Aging ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Development Goals

As a developing country, Malaysia is undergoing a demographic transition from a high fertility and mortality rural society towards an industrialised society with low fertility and mortality rates. This transition involved an increased growth rate of elderly population. The number of elderly has risen from 1.4 million in 2000 to 2.1 million in 2010 and is projected to be 3.4 million by 2020. A population aging needs to accumulate assets in order to achieve sustainable development goals. This represents the main challenge to planners and policy makers in terms of designing aged-friendly neighbourhoods to meet the elderly needs. This paper aims to review the population aging trends and policy framework available for the elderly in Malaysia. The paper further discusses the sustainable neighbourhoods related to active aging. The paper concludes by identifying fundamental gaps in both knowledge and policy associated with planning for the aging population and successful aging.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document