scholarly journals Current Account Balance in Emerging Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
Kivanç Halil Ariç ◽  
Siok Kun Sek ◽  
Miguel Rocha de Sousa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Current Account

Abstract The current account balance is an important indicator which reveals information on a country’s economic situation such as investments, capital flows, and indebtedness. The main purpose of this study is to examine the current account balance conditions in emerging Asian countries. In this respect, the long-run and causality relationship between current account balance, economic growth, government expenditure, real interest rates, and foreign direct investment was examined. The panel data analysis was applied using the data dated 1986 to 2015. Our results revealed a causal effect from economic growth and government expenditure to current account balance mainly dependent on saving tendency.

The long run influence of pension systems on the current account

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-101
Author(s):  
Thomas Davoine
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Funded Pensions ◽  
Future Consumption ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Current Account

AbstractExplaining cross-country differences in current accounts is difficult. While pay-as-you-go pensions reduce the need to save for retirement, contributions to capital-funded pensions are saved for future consumption. An overlapping-generations analysis shows that capital-funded pensions increase net foreign assets holdings. With a multi-pillar system whose capital-funded part accounts for 18% of pensions, the Austrian current account balance would be 1 percentage point of gross domestic product (GDP) higher than with pure pay-as-you-go pensions in 20 years. By comparison, the Austrian current account surplus averages 1.8% of GDP. Empirically, I find that the current account of high-income countries increases with the coverage and replacement rates of capital-funded pensions.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DINAMIS KETERKAITAN VARIABEL YANG MEMPENGARUHI NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN INDONESIA TAHUN 2012

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Winta Ratna Sari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Current Account

This study was to analyze the contribution rate (the rupiah against the U.S. dollar), Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and Output Growth (GDP) of the current account balance in Indonesia. The data used in this study secondary data is sourced from Indonesia Financial Statistics. The data used is the data quarterly from the first quarter of 2000 up to 2010 fourth quarter. The results of the estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) indicates that there is a relationship between the Current Account, Exchange Rate, Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and GDP at lag t-1. Impulse response function of the stability of the first note that all variables are in the long run that is over 5 years and tend to be stable. This means that in the short term variables that are used do not provide a meaningful contribution in the long term but will mutually contribute to each other. Variance Decomposition Based on these results, it is known that all variables contributed to the Current Account, but his greatest contribution is of the variable itself, this means that the current account tends to a variable receiving contributions rather than giving contributions

scholarly journals An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-198
Author(s):  
Okosu Napoleon David
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
National Account ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.

scholarly journals ANALISIS INTERDEPENDENSI NILAI TUKAR, INFLASI, PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO, SUKU BUNGA DAN NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Uline Afriany Prasetia Simarmata
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Random Shock ◽  
The Current Account

Depreciation of the rupiah prompted Bank Indonesia raised SBI to strengthen the rupiah, inflation has a downward trend when the appreciation of the rupiah, and the movement of the exchange rate also change the position of the current account of Indonesia. This study aimed to determine the role and effects of changes in exchange rates, inflation, gross domestic product, interest rates and the current account balance for each variable. Data obtained from secondary data is exchange rate, inflation, GDP, interest rates and the current account data from 2000:1 up to 2010:4. The model used in this study is the econometric model by the method of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) that in their analysis the instrument has Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD). The results of this study concluded that (1) All variable giving each other random shock to other variables and response by each variable so as to achieve long-term equilibrium. This is shown on the estimation IRF test on each variable; (2) All variables are mutually contribute to other variables. It is shown by the results of estimation VD test, in which each variable contributed to other variables.

scholarly journals The Reasons for Additional Growth Limit of Consumer Non-Purpose Loans in the Banking Sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (26) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragan Jović
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
Consumer Loans ◽  
Growth Limit ◽  
The Current Account

The growth in consumer non-purpose loans leads to the reduction in BiH current account balance and amplifies the current account deficit. According to regression models, the commercial loan has the same effect on the current account. However, in dynamic VAR models, a commercial loan has, either neutral influence on the current account balance, or contributes to its mild growth. A commercial loan is necessary for BiH economy, because the private sector is the main factor of the economic growth, while a consumer non-purpose loan generates mainly demand for import. When a credit growth is very low, the credit is economic and not free good and additional need for the direct regulation of credit appears, especially in countries with underdeveloped financial market. The share of private companies in the credit distribution is reduced and from the economic point of view, redistribution of loans can be made only at the expense of consumer loans. Additional growth limit on the consumer non-purpose loan, which is composed of 74.2% of total consumer loans, and 34.9% of all bank’s loans (10/2016), is one of the preconditions for the decrease of current account deficit, economic growth and economic development acceleration.

scholarly journals Effects of Public Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product in Zambia from 1980-2017: An ARDL Methodology Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 103-111
Author(s):  
Mubanga Mpundu ◽  
Jane Mwafulirwa ◽  
Mutinta Chaampita ◽  
Notulu Salwindi
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The paper explored the fundamental changes in public expenditure and the resulting effect on the gross domestic product using an ARDL approach for time series data over the period 1980-2017. The control variables included foreign direct investment and current account balance. The objective was to determine changes which had occurred with regard to the performance of GDP since 1980. A quantitative method approach was used to ascertain the relationship between the variables and analysed using the E-views 9 software. Cointegration results showed a long run relationship between GDP and government expenditure. In this regard, changes in government expenditure have a strong converse effect on GDP. Government expenditure, which has increased significantly in the past decade, is seen to have had negative effects both in the short run and long run. Contrary to theory, increased government expenditure may not be ideal for growing the Zambian economy. This could be due to the allocation of this public expenditure, i.e. the 2018 Budget had 24% of the expenditure directed to economic activities. Thus it is recommended that government practice increased fiscal discipline or reallocated resources as their expansionary fiscal policies are not yielding the intended results. Additionally, policies to promote private investment may be more beneficial for the Zambian economy. On the other hand, increased investment is also recommended with government encouraging more investment promoting policies as FDI is observed to have a positive impact in the short run though insignificant in the long run. These should ensure more investors are encouraged to stay longer and the impacts/externalities of their investments be accrued to the nationals to ensure long run benefits. The Zambian government should also ensure that the country diversifies its export base and enhances its external debt management to ensure positive and consistent impact of Current Account Balance in the long run.

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