An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.

Measuring the housing sector’s contribution to GDP in emerging market countries

Purpose This paper aims to document the economic importance of the housing sector, as measured by its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), which is not fully recognized. In response to the joint economic and health crises caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is an opportunity for emerging market countries to develop and implement inclusive housing strategies that stimulate the economy and improve community health outcomes. However, so far housing does not feature prominently in the recovery plans of many emerging market countries. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses national account data and informal housing estimates for 11 emerging market economies to estimate the contribution of housing investments and housing services to the GDP of these countries. Findings This paper finds that the combined contribution of housing investments and housing services represents between 6.9% and 18.5% of GDP, averaging 13.1% in the countries with information about both. This puts the housing sector roughly on par with other key sectors such as manufacturing. In addition, if the informal housing sector is undercounted in the official national account figures used in this analysis by 50% or 100%, for example, then the true averages of housing investments and housing services’ contribution to GDP would increase to 14.3% or 16.1% of GDP, respectively. Research limitations/implications Further efforts to improve data collection about housing investments and consumption, particularly imputed rent for owner occupiers and informal activity require national government to conduct regular household and housing surveys. Researcher can help make these surveys more robust and leverage new data sources such as scraped housing price and rent data to complement traditional surveys. Better data are needed in order to capture housing contribution to the economy. Practical implications The size of the housing sector and its impact in terms of employment and community resilience indicate the potential of inclusive housing investments to both serve short-term economic stimulus and increase long-term community resilience. Originality/value The role of housing in the economy is often limited to housing investment, despite the importance of housing services and well-documented methodologies to include them. This analysis highlights the importance of housing to the economy of emerging market countries (in addition to all the non-GDP related impact of housing on welfare) and indicate data limitation that need to be addressed to further strengthen the case for focusing on housing as part of economic recovery plans.

Perceived crowding and physical distance rules: a national account perspective

<abstract><p>Policies concerning the sustainable tourism are fundamentally addressed to the environmental protection and to minimize the anthropogenic impact when exploiting beaches, archeological sites and other tourist attractions. In this paper, we propose a subjective measure, namely the Perceived factor, in order to take into account the more general dimension of the social factor in the assessment of the Tourism Carrying Capacity (TCC) measures. The analysis evaluates the employment impact of the perceived crowding by using data resulting from a survey conducted in the Asinara National Park. In this respect, a macroeconomic analysis is presented by using a SAM scheme developed at a local level, based on four municipalities representing a potential gravitational area of tourists visiting the Asinara National Park. Afterward, a SAM-based model combined with the sustainability measures is proposed to compute the employment loss due to the Perceived factor.</p></abstract>

Establishment and Practice of the Statistical Indicator System for All-Area-Advancing Tourism in China

As a new concept and mode in China to promote the coordinated development of the regional economy and society driven by the tourism industry, All-area-advancing tourism refers to the unified planning and layout, optimization of public services, comprehensive overall management, and marketing of a certain region as a complete destination with tourism as the dominant industry. This research established the All-area-advancing tourism statistical indicator system which is committed to calculate the contribution of All-area-advancing tourism to the national economy from both the supply and demand sides within the framework of the system of national account (SNA). Meanwhile, the established indicator system of All-area-advancing tourism has been applied to calculate the output of the tourism industry in Songjiang district, Shanghai, China. The results indicate that the All-area-advancing tourism indicator system can better fit the current system of national account and reflect the contribution of the tourism industry to the national economy in a more comprehensive way.

Análisis del subsector museos y su contribución económica en México

El presente artículo analiza el papel de los museos en el sector de la cultura en México y su contribución económica. Para ello, se tomó como base para el análisis de los años 2016 y 2017, los resultados del Sistema Nacional de Cuentas del INEGI, (Año base 2013) y la clasificación del Sistema de Clasificación Industrial de América del Norte SCIAN (2018).Palabras clave: Sector; economía; crecimiento; cultura; museos. AbstractThis article presents the role of museums in the culture sector in Mexico and how they contribute to the growth and development of the country. For this, the results of the National Account System of INEGI, (Base Year 2013) and the classification of the North American Industrial Classification System SCIAN (2018) are taken as the basis for the analysis.Keywords: Sector; Economy; Growth; Culture; Museums.

Response of Nigerian Construction Industry to Economic Growth

The study assessed response of Nigerian Construction Industry to economic growth of Nigeria. The research was conducted using secondary data. The secondary data used was the National Account Dataset from 1981 to 2018 as 2010 constant price year. This was gotten from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) publication reports. The response was evaluated through Impact propensity (IP), Finite Distributed Lag (FDL) and the Long Run Propensity (LRP). These parameters were calculated from the time series regression analysis using ordinary Least Square Method of estimation. The results show that the impact propensity of economic growth on construction is weak with correlation coefficient of -0.012. Delayed impact of economic growth on construction was observed with finite distributed lag of two year cycle. Maximum correlation coefficient of 1.265 with the economics of the preceding year (t-1) was observed. Long run propensity of 1.333 establishes a high growth propensity for construction industry given a one percent permanent GDP growth. Therefore, the study concluded that a consistent economic growth is desirable so as to achieve improved construction industry contribution to GDP.

Detection of Environmental Sources of Infectious Diseases in Groundwater Networks (DESIGN) – Cryptosporidium and VTEC Incidence in the Republic of Ireland.

&lt;p&gt;Approximately 500 million Europeans use a groundwater source for water consumption on a daily basis. Private (unregulated) groundwater wells are key sources of domestic drinking water in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) with approximately 750,000 users. The distribution of groundwater wells in the ROI is highly concentrated in rural areas in correspondence with the absence of piped infrastructure. The nexus of key (extra-)local factors, including high private groundwater reliance, ubiquity of domestic wastewater treatment systems and pastoral agriculture in rural areas, in conjunction with a temperate maritime climate and distinctive hydro(geo)logical settings, has been linked to a high groundwater susceptibility to contamination and risk of waterborne enteric infection.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;DESIGN focuses on the incidence and sources of verotoxigenic-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) and &lt;em&gt;Cryptosporidium&lt;/em&gt; spp. &amp;#8211; the most prevalent waterborne pathogens inducing enteric illness in the ROI &amp;#8211; associated with private groundwater wells. The findings of a systematic literature review focusing on the prevalence of &lt;em&gt;Cryptosporidium&lt;/em&gt; in domestic groundwater supplies are presented. Calculated detection rates for groundwater wells (19%) and samples (13%) indicate &lt;em&gt;Cryptosporidium&lt;/em&gt; spp. contamination of domestic groundwater supplies is common, representing a latent health risk of direct concern to groundwater consumers and public health authorities. Presented figures provide unprecedented &amp;#8220;baselines&amp;#8221; highly applicable in groundwater/catchment management and epidemiology (e.g., QMRA). Several knowledge gaps were identified with the lack of standardized reporting among investigations emerging as a key concern.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The results of temporal (i.e., repeat) sampling regimes analysing the spatio-temporal incidence of &lt;em&gt;Cryptosporidium&lt;/em&gt; and VTEC in groundwater wells are also presented. Sampling locations (n = 80) were geo-referenced and linked to multiple variables (e.g., land-use, agricultural statistics, hydrogeology) compiled in a novel geo-database. In conjunction with supply infrastructural data, relevant risk factors associated with VTEC and &lt;em&gt;Cryptosporidium&lt;/em&gt; well contamination were identified. Furthermore, incorporating previously available data from project partners, stochastic QMRA and Environmental Fate Model(s) were produced to assess the relative risk of VTEC well contamination and seasonal influence. The explorative &lt;em&gt;Cryptosporidium&lt;/em&gt; sampling regime provides the first national account of (oocyst) incidence in domestic groundwater infrastructure enabling insights into potential environmental sources and (surface-groundwater) transport mechanisms. The results obtained represent a stepping stone towards the development of bespoke groundwater management strategies in the ROI based on the &amp;#8216;One Health&amp;#8217; concept.&lt;/p&gt;

What is the share of population to the agro-industrial economy? A measure of demographic dividend in Indonesia

This study aims to measure the share of population to economic growth, demographic dividend, in Indonesia. The analysis employed the Cobb-Douglas model. The data came from the Indonesia’s National Account in 1970–2015, divided into two time spans (1970–1992 and 1993–2015). The dependent variable is the gross domestic product at current prices. The independent variables are investment, population, and employment opportunity. The demographic dividend is defined as the difference in the share of population between the first time span and second time span. It was found that the magnitude of demographic dividend through the whole population is 1.8874% and through the employment opportunity is 1.4557%. The measure of demographic dividend in this study is a new measure of demographic dividend in Indonesia.

Estimating Quarterly GDP for Nepal: An Application of Chow-Lin Procedure

Nepal started producing annual national income estimates following an internationally accepted system of 'National Account Systems' since the late1960s; and, accordingly, the annual GDP figures for Nepal are available for a longer period. However, the production and publication of quarterly GDP for public consumption have been both rare and occasional. This paper aims to bridge this gap by providing an estimate for quarterly GDP for the period of 1997/98 Q1 to 2017/18 Q4 following well established Chow-Lin procedure. The quarterly exports and government tax revenue are used to extrapolate the magnitude and movement of quarterly GDP. The results show a deterministic seasonal movement over the quarters. In particular, increased economic activities are observed in the second and fourth quarters while making a comparison on quarter to quarter basis. It is expected that this paper will partially fulfill the gap of unavailability of quarterly GDP figures in the public domain, and documents that the researcher may use suitable econometric exercise to obtain inter-temporal disaggregation of low-frequency data such as annual GDP into quarterly figures.