scholarly journals The Impact of Weather on Hospitalization due to Pneumonia Among Children in Nghe An from 2014 to 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Chi Sy ◽  
Le Tu Hoang ◽  
Nguyen Thi Trang Nhung ◽  
Vu Thi Hoang Lan ◽  
Tran Minh Dien
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
World Health ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

This paper studies the impact of weather on the number of under 15-year-old children hospitalized for pneumonia at Nghe An Pediatric Hospital using time series analysis of the data collected from 2014 to 2019. The study was carried out on 45,466 children, most of whom were under 5 years old. The study results show that there was a statistically significant inverse correlation between mean daily temperature and children’s hospitalization for pneumonia while humidity was positively correlated. Specifically, when the average daily temperature increased by 1 degree Celsius, the risk of hospitalization for pneumonia on the same day decreased by 1% (95% CI: 0.3 - 1.7%); whereas when the humidity increased, the risk of hospitalization increased by 14.4% (95% CI: 0.2 - 30.7%) on the day of hospitalization; risk increased by 16.5% (95% CI: 9.5 - 23.9%) one day before hospitalization; and risk increased by 15.2% (95% CI: 8.2 - 22.7%) two days before hospitalization. The results suggest that children are highly sensitive to weather factors, including temperature and humidity; therefore, it is necessary to take measures to protect children against changing weather. Keywords Weather, pneumonia, children, effect. References [1] I. Rudan, et al., Epidemiology and etiology of childhood pneumonia. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 86(5) (2008) 408-416.[2] M. Harris, et al., British Thoracic Society guidelines for the management of community acquired pneumonia in children: update Thorax, 66 (2011) (Suppl 2): p. ii1.[3] Margolis, P. and A. Gadomski, The rational clinical examination. Does this infant have pneumonia? Jama 279(4) (1998) 308-13.[4] World Health Organization, Handbook : IMCI integrated management of childhood illness. 2005, World Health Organization: Geneva.[5] Sönke Kreft, David Eckstein, and Inga Melchior, Global Climate Risk Index 2017, Germanwatch Nord-Süd Initiative e.V.,.[6] Pham Khoi Nguyen, Vietnam's event about sea level rising and climate chang, 2009, Ministry of Natural resources and enviroment.[7] L.M.T. Luong, et al., Effects of temperature on hospitalisation among pre-school children in Hanoi, Vietnam, 26(3) (2019) 2603-2612.[8] D. Phung, et al., Temperature as a risk factor for hospitalisations among young children in the Mekong Delta area, Vietnam. Occupational and Environmental Medicine 72(7) (2015) 529.[9] J. Gao, et al., Impact of ambient humidity on child health: a systematic review. PloS one 9(12) (2014) p. e112508-e112508.[10] Y. Liu, et al., Temporal relationship between hospital admissions for pneumonia and weather conditions in Shanghai, China: a time-series analysis. BMJ Open, 4(7) (2014) p. e004961.[11] T. Egondi, et al., Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements. Global health action, 5 (2012) 23-32.[12] Leckebusch, G.C. and A.F. Abdussalam, Climate and socioeconomic influences on interannual variability of cholera in Nigeria. Health Place, 34 (2015) 107-17.        

scholarly journals Impact of campaign-style delivery of routine vaccines during Intensified Mission Indradhanush in India: a controlled interrupted time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Clarke-Deelder ◽  
Christian Suharlim ◽  
Susmita Chatterjee ◽  
Logan Brenzel ◽  
Arindam Ray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Childhood Vaccination ◽  
World Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntroductionThe world is not on track to achieve the goals for immunization coverage and equity described by the World Health Organization’s Global Vaccine Action Plan. In India, only 62% of children had received a full course of basic vaccines in 2016. We evaluated the Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI), a campaign-style intervention to increase routine immunization coverage and equity in India, implemented in 2017-2018.MethodsWe conducted a comparative interrupted time-series analysis using monthly district-level data on vaccine doses delivered, comparing districts participating and not participating in IMI. We estimated the impact of IMI on coverage and under-coverage (defined as the proportion of children who were unvaccinated) during the four-month implementation period and in subsequent months.FindingsDuring implementation, IMI increased delivery of thirteen infant vaccines by between 1.6% (95% CI: −6.4, 10.2%) and 13.8% (3.0%, 25.7%). We did not find evidence of a sustained effect during the 8 months after implementation ended. Over the 12 months from the beginning of implementation, IMI reduced under-coverage of childhood vaccination by between 3.9% (−6.9%, 13.7%) and 35.7% (−7.5%, 77.4%). The largest estimated effects were for the first doses of vaccines against diptheria-tetanus-pertussis and polio.InterpretationIMI had a substantial impact on infant immunization delivery during implementation, but this effect waned after implementation ended. Our findings suggest that campaign-style interventions can increase routine infant immunization coverage and reach formerly unreached children in the shorter term, but other approaches may be needed for sustained coverage improvements.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of the World Health Organization Access, Watch, and Reserve Classification to Follow Trends in Prescription of Antibiotic Use in Two Pediatric Intensive Care Units in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (03) ◽  
pp. 155-160
Author(s):  
André Ricardo Araujo da Silva ◽  
Cristina Vieira de Souza Oliveira ◽  
Cristiane Henriques Teixeira ◽  
Izabel Alves Leal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
Pediatric Intensive Care ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Antibiotic Consumption ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Objective The recommended percentage of antibiotic use in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) using the World Health Organization (WHO) Access, Watch, and Reserve (AWaRE) classification is not known. Methods We have conducted an interrupted time series analysis in two PICUs in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, over a period of 18 months. The type of antibiotics used was evaluated using the WHO AWaRE classification, and the amount of antibiotic was measured using days of therapy/1,000 patient-days (DOT/1000PD) after implementation of an antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP). The first and last semesters were compared using medians and the Mann–Whitney's test. The trends of antibiotic consumption were performed using time series analysis in three consecutive 6-month periods. Results A total of 2,205 patients were admitted, accounting for 12,490 patient-days. In PICU 1, overall antibiotic consumption (in DOT/1000PD) was 1,322 in the first 6 months of analysis and 1,264.5 in the last 6 months (p = 0.81). In PICU 2, the consumption for the same period was 1,638.5 and 1,344.5, respectively (p = 0.031). In PICU 1, the antibiotics classified in the AWaRE groups were used 33.2, 57.9, and 8.4% of the time, respectively. The remaining 0.5% of antibiotics used were not classified in any of these groups. In PICU 2, the AWaRE groups corresponded to 30.2, 60.5, and 9.3% of all antibiotics used, respectively. There was no use of unclassified antibiotics in this unit. The use of all three groups of WHO AWaRE antibiotics was similar in the first and the last semesters, with the exception of Reserve group in PICU 2 (183.5 × 92, p = 0.031). Conclusion A significant reduction of overall antibiotic use and also in the Reserve group was achieved in one of the PICU units studied. The antibiotics classified in the Watch group were the most used in both units, representing ∼60% of all the antibiotics consumed.

scholarly journals The impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on hospital admissions for alcohol-related liver disease and pancreatitis in Japan: a time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hisashi Itoshima ◽  
Jung-ho Shin ◽  
Daisuke Takada ◽  
Tetsuji Morishita ◽  
Susumu Kunisawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Liver Disease ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
World Health ◽  
Administrative Database ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Outbreak Period ◽  
Related Liver Disease ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundDuring the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there have been health concerns related to alcohol use and misuse. Therefore, the World Health Organization cautioned that alcohol consumption during the pandemic might have a negative impact. The aim of this study was to examine the population-level change in cases of alcohol-related liver disease and pancreatitis that required admission during the COVID-19 outbreak.MethodsWe included patients aged 18 years or older who were hospitalized between July 2018 and June 2020 using Diagnostic Procedure Combination data, an administrative database in Japan, and counted the admission cases whose primary diagnosis was alcohol-related liver disease or pancreatitis. We defined the period from April 2020, when the Japanese government declared a state of emergency, as the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. The rate ratio (RR) of admissions with alcohol-related liver disease or pancreatitis per 1,000 admissions was tested using interrupted time series analysis. In addition, excess admissions for alcohol-related liver disease or pancreatitis were calculated.ResultsOverall admissions were 3,026,389 cases, and a total of 10,242 admissions for alcohol-related liver disease or pancreatitis occurred from 257 hospitals. The rate of admissions per 1,000 admissions during the COVID-19 outbreak period (April 2020 to June 2020) had a 1.2 times increase compared with the pre-outbreak period (July 2018 to March 2020) for cases of alcohol-related liver disease or pancreatitis (RR: 1.22, 95%Confidence interval [CI]: 1.12 to 1.33). The COVID-19 pandemic caused about 214.75 (95%CI: 178.78 to 249.72) excess admissions for alcohol-related liver disease or pancreatitis based on predictions from our model.ConclusionThe COVID-19 outbreak might have resulted in increased hospital admissions for alcohol-related liver disease or pancreatitis.

scholarly journals Effects of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran: An intervention time series analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256516
Author(s):  
Ali Hadianfar ◽  
Razieh Yousefi ◽  
Milad Delavary ◽  
Vahid Fakoor ◽  
Mohammad Taghi Shakeri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Social Interventions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

Background Public health policies with varying degrees of restriction have been imposed around the world to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of the implementation of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran, using an intervention time series analysis. Methods Daily data on COVID-19 cases registered between February 19 and May 2, 2020 were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO)’s website. Using an intervention time series modeling, the effect of two government policies on the number of confirmed cases were evaluated, namely the closing of schools and universities, and the implementation of social distancing measures. Furthermore, the effect of the Nowruz holidays as a non-intervention factor for the spread of COVID-19 was also analyzed. Results The results showed that, after the implementation of the first intervention, i.e., the closing of universities and schools, no statistically significant change was found in the number of new confirmed cases. The Nowruz holidays was followed by a significant increase in new cases (1,872.20; 95% CI, 1,257.60 to 2,476.79; p<0.001)), while the implementation of social distancing measures was followed by a significant decrease in such cases (2,182.80; 95% CI, 1,556.56 to 2,809.04; p<0.001). Conclusion The Nowruz holidays and the implementation of social distancing measures in Iran were related to a significant increase and decrease in COVID-19 cases, respectively. These results highlight the necessity of measuring the effect of health and social interventions for their future implementations.

scholarly journals Does admission prevalence change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? An interrupted time series analysis of the impact of reconfiguration in five centres

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Inpatient Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Admission Prevalence

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.

Recession and risk of suicide in Denmark during the 2009 global financial crisis: an ecological register-based study

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110132
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konieczna ◽  
Sarah Grube Jakobsen ◽  
Christina Petrea Larsen ◽  
Erik Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Aim: The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact from the financial crisis (onset in 2009) on suicide rates in Denmark. The hypothesis is that the global financial crisis raised unemployment which leads to raising the suicide rate in Denmark and that the impact is most prominent in men. Method: This study used an ecological study design, including register data from 2001 until 2016 on unemployment, suicide, gender and calendar time which was analysed using Poisson regression models and interrupted time series analysis. Results: The correlation between unemployment and suicide rates was positive in the period and statistically significant for all, but at a moderate level. A dichotomised version of time (calendar year) showed a significant reduction in the suicide rate for women (incidence rate ratio 0.87, P=0.002). Interrupted time series analysis showed a significant decreasing trend for the overall suicide rate and for men in the pre-recession period, which in both cases stagnated after the onset of recession in 2009. The difference between the genders’ suicide rate changed significantly at the onset of recession, as the rate for men increased and the rate for women decreased. Discussion: The Danish social welfare model might have prevented social disintegration and suicide among unemployed, and suicide prevention programmes might have prevented deaths among unemployed and mentally ill individuals. Conclusions: We found some indications for gender-specific differences from the impact of the financial crises on the suicide rate. We recommend that men should be specifically targeted for appropriate prevention programmes during periods of economic downturn.

scholarly journals The Impact of an Inactivated Hepatitis A Vaccine with One Dose in Brazil: A Retrospective Time-Series

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 407
Author(s):  
Ana Luiza Bierrenbach ◽  
Yoonyoung Choi ◽  
Paula de Mendonça Batista ◽  
Fernando Brandão Serra ◽  
Cintia Irene Parellada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Hepatitis A ◽  
National Level ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Annual Reduction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vaccination Period

Background: In 2014, a recommended one-dose of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine was included in the Brazilian National Immunization Program targeting children 12–24 months. This decision addressed the low to intermediate endemicity status of hepatitis A across Brazil and the high rate of infection in children and adolescents between 5 and 19 years old. The aim of the study was to conduct a time-series analysis on hepatitis A incidence across age groups and to assess the hepatitis A distribution throughout Brazilian geographic regions. Methods: An interrupted time-series analysis was performed to assess hepatitis A incidence rates before (2010–2013) and after (2015–2018) hepatitis A vaccine program implementation. The time-series analysis was stratified by age groups while a secondary analysis examined geographic distribution of hepatitis A cases. Results: Overall incidence of hepatitis A decreased from 3.19/100.000 in the pre-vaccine period to 0.87/100.000 (p = 0.022) post-vaccine introduction. Incidence rate reduction was higher among children aged 1-4 years old, with an annual reduction of 67.6% in the post-vaccination period against a 7.7% annual reduction in the pre-vaccination period (p < 0.001). Between 2015 and 2018, the vaccination program prevented 14,468 hepatitis A cases. Conclusion: Our study highlighted the positive impact of a recommended one-dose inactivated hepatitis A vaccine for 1–4-years-old in controlling hepatitis A at national level.

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