Contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal 3 for health: a microsimulation of the 15 largest cities in Brazil

ObjectivesAs middle-income countries strive to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains unclear to what degree expanding primary care coverage can help achieve those goals and reduce within-country inequalities in mortality. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of primary care expansion on cause-specific mortality in the 15 largest Brazilian cities.DesignMicrosimulation model.Setting15 largest cities by population size in Brazil.ParticipantsSimulated populations.InterventionsWe performed survival analysis to estimate HRs of death by cause and by demographic group, from a national administrative database linked to the Estratégia de Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy, FHS) electronic health and death records among 1.2 million residents of Rio de Janeiro (2010–2016). We incorporated the HRs into a microsimulation to estimate the impact of changing primary care coverage in the 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCrude and age-standardised mortality by cause, infant mortality and under-5 mortality.ResultsIncreased FHS coverage would be expected to reduce inequalities in mortality among cities (from 2.8 to 2.4 deaths per 1000 between the highest-mortality and lowest-mortality city, given a 40 percentage point increase in coverage), between welfare recipients and non-recipients (from 1.3 to 1.0 deaths per 1,000), and among race/ethnic groups (between Black and White Brazilians from 1.0 to 0.8 deaths per 1,000). Even a 40 percentage point increase in coverage, however, would be insufficient to reach SDG targets alone, as it would be expected to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 20% (vs the target of 33%), and communicable diseases by 15% (vs 100%).ConclusionsFHS primary care coverage may be critically beneficial to reducing within-country health inequalities, but reaching SDG targets will likely require coordination between primary care and other sectors.

Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown, during the Two Waves, on Drug Use and Emergency Department Access in People with Epilepsy: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Background: In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Italy implemented two national lockdowns aimed at reducing virus transmission. We assessed whether these lockdowns affected anti-seizure medication (ASM) use and epilepsy-related access to emergency departments (ED) in the general population. Methods: We performed a population-based study using the healthcare administrative database of Tuscany. We defined the weekly time series of prevalence and incidence of ASM, along with the incidence of epilepsy-related ED access from 1 January 2018 to 27 December 2020 in the general population. An interrupted time-series analysis was used to assess the effect of lockdowns on the observed outcomes. Results: Compared to pre-lockdown, we observed a relevant reduction of ASM incidence (0.65; 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.59–0.72) and ED access (0.72; 0.64–0.82), and a slight decrease of ASM prevalence (0.95; 0.94–0.96). During the post-lockdown the ASM incidence reported higher values compared to pre-lockdown, whereas ASM prevalence and ED access remained lower. Results also indicate a lower impact of the second lockdown for both ASM prevalence (0.97; 0.96–0.98) and incidence (0.89; 0.80–0.99). Conclusion: The lockdowns implemented during the COVID-19 outbreaks significantly affected ASM use and epilepsy-related ED access. The potential consequences of these phenomenon are still unknown, although an increased incidence of epilepsy-related symptoms after the first lockdown has been observed. These findings emphasize the need of ensuring continuous care of epileptic patients in stressful conditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic on Lung Cancer Surgery in France: A Nationwide Study

Few studies have investigated the link between SARS-CoV-2 and health restrictions and its effects on the health of lung cancer (LC) patients. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic on surgical activity volume, postoperative complications and in-hospital mortality (IHM) for LC resections in France. All data for adult patients who underwent pulmonary resection for LC in France in 2020, collected from the national administrative database, were compared to 2018–2019. The effect of SARS-CoV-2 on the risk of IHM and severe complications within 30 days among LC surgery patients was examined using a logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities and type of resection. There was a slight decrease in the volume of LC resections in 2020 (n = 11,634), as compared to 2018 (n = 12,153) and 2019 (n = 12,227), with a noticeable decrease in April 2020 (the peak of the first wave of epidemic in France). We found that SARS-CoV-2 (0.43% of 2020 resections) was associated with IHM and severe complications, with, respectively, a sevenfold (aOR = 7.17 (3.30–15.55)) and almost a fivefold (aOR = 4.76 (2.31–9.80)) increase in risk. Our study suggests that LC surgery is feasible even during a pandemic, provided that general guidance protocols edited by the surgical societies are respected.

Total Knee Arthroplasty following Knee Arthroscopy in Patients over 50

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the conversion rate of knee arthroscopy to ipsilateral total knee arthroplasty (TKA) within 2 years in patients aged 50 or older at the time of arthroscopy. The administrative database from a large, physician-owned orthopaedic practice (>100 surgeons) was queried to identify patients over the age of 50 who had undergone arthroscopic knee surgery between January 1, 2006 and January 2, 2015. The subset of patients who converted to TKA within 2 years after knee arthroscopy was identified and matched by age and sex to a control population that did not convert to TKA. Rates of conversion to TKA were calculated. Prearthroscopic digital radiographs were reviewed and Kellgren–Lawrence (KL) grades were compared among case and control populations. Univariable analyses and multivariable regression analysis were performed. Eight hundred seven of 16,061 (5.02%) patients aged 50 or older were converted to TKA within 2 years following ipsilateral knee arthroscopy. In univariable analysis, the rate of conversion to TKA in patients aged between 50 and 54 was 2.94%, compared with 4.44% in patients aged between 55 and 64, and 8.32% in patients 65 or older (p < 0.0001). Female sex was associated with a higher rate of conversion to TKA in univariable analysis (5.93 vs. 4.02% in males, p < 0.0001). KL grades were higher among patients who converted to TKA compared with those who did not (p < 0.0001). In a multivariable regression model controlling for age, sex, and KL grade, only increased KL grade was associated with increased odds of conversion to TKA. In the appropriately selected older patient, the risk of conversion to TKA within 2 years of knee arthroscopy is low (∼5%). Patients with KL grade 2 or higher at the time of arthroscopy should be counseled on the increased odds of early conversion to TKA.

Rural-Urban Differences in Esophagectomy for Cancer

Background: Patients who are socioeconomically disadvantaged or in rural areas may not pursue surgery at high-volume centers, where outcomes are better for some complex procedures. The objective of this study was to determine and compare rural and urban patient differences and outcomes after undergoing esophagectomy for cancer. Study Design: An analysis of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample (HCUP NIS) database was performed, capturing adult patients with esophageal cancer who underwent esophagectomy. Patients were stratified into rural or urban groups by the National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme. Demographics, hospital variables, and outcomes were compared. Results: A total of 2,877 patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer were captured by the database, with 228 (7.92%) rural and 2,575 (89.50%) urban patients. The rural and urban groups had no difference in age, race, insurance status, and many common comorbidities. Major outcomes of mortality and length of stay were similar for both rural and urban patients (3.95% versus 4.27%, p=0.815) and (15.75±13.22 versus 15.55±14.91 days, p=0.828), respectively. There was a trend for rural patients to be more likely to discharge home (35.96% versus 29.79%, OR 0.667 [95%CI 0.479-0.929]; p=0.0167). Conclusions: This retrospective administrative database study indicates that rural and urban patients receive equivalent postoperative care after undergoing esophagectomy. The findings are reassuring as there does not appear to be a disparity in major outcomes depending on the location of residence, but further studies are necessary to assure equitable treatment for rural patients.

Characterizing telemedicine use in clinical immunology and allergy in Canada before the COVID-19 pandemic

Rationale There exists a geographic barrier to access CIA care for patients who live in rural communities; telemedicine may bridge this gap in care. Herein we characterized the use of telemedicine in CIA at a population-based level and single centre. Methods Before the COVID-19 pandemic, telemedicine care was provided via the Ontario Telemedicine Network (OTN) in Ontario, Canada. Descriptive data were collected from the OTN administrative database and from electronic medical records at a single academic centre during 2014 to 2019. The potential distance travelled and time saved by telemedicine visits were calculated using postal codes. Results A total of 1298 telemedicine visits was conducted over OTN, with an average of 216 visits per year. Only 11% of the allergists/immunologists used telemedicine to provide care before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the single centre that provided the majority of the telemedicine care, 66% patients were female and the overall mean age was 46. The most common diagnosis was immunodeficiency (40%), followed by asthma (13%) and urticaria (11%). Most patients required at least one follow-up via telemedicine. The average potential two-way distance travelled per visit was 718 km and the average potential time travelled in total was 6.6 h. Conclusion Telemedicine was not widely used by allergists/immunologists in Ontario, Canada before the COVID-19 pandemic. It could offer a unique opportunity to connect patients who live in remote communities and allergists/immunologists who practice in urban centres in Canada. Independent of the current pandemic, our study further highlights the need for more physicians to adopt and continue telemedicine use as well as for healthcare agencies to support its use as a strategic priority once the pandemic is over.