scholarly journals The Impact on Unemployment of Social Security Contributions: the Empiricial Analysis in Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Filiz Giray ◽  
Mehmet Çınar
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Social Security Contributions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

Social security contributions are important public incomes after taxes in OECD countries. Beside, social security contributions as a mean of the finance of social security system is a determiner on the main macroeconomic factors such as savings, employment, the cost of employment, the level of shadow economy, economic growth, competitiveness and income inequality. Employment has been important policy goals in Turkey like many OECD countries during recent decades. High unemployment rate is a serious problem for countries. Effecting negatively labor market, high burden of social security contributions causes low level of employment. The aim of this study is to find the relationship between social security contributions and unemployment for Turkey. Therefore, we can evaluate whether reducing social security contributions is a way reducing of unemployment or not. We use time series data during period 1965-2015. The research methodology is based on an analysis of indicators as unemployment rate, social security contributions as percentage of GDPs, the percentage of total tax revenues. Unit root test is non-stationary for social security contributions. On the other hand, unemployment is stationary for related period. The long run relationship between variables was tested by ARDL bound test approach. Based on the sample results, there is a long run cointegration between social security contributions and unemployment rate (both as percentage of GDP and percentage of taxation).

Factors Affecting International Reserves with Special Reference to India

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 339-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kashif ◽  
P. Sridharan ◽  
S. Thiyagarajan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

World international reserves holdings have accelerated sharply in recent times. Countries particularly developing ones are competitive enough to hoard these reserves and top 10 major holders are mostly from Asia. Interestingly India comes only ninth among them. Developing countries, particularly India, are in line to hoard foreign reserves and there are certain factors that affect international reserves holdings. This study analysed the impact of few macroeconomic factors on these reserves. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were employed to check the stationarity of the variables on the time series data that were of annual frequency. It was found that all variables were co-integrated signalling long-run relationship. Error correction mechanism (ECM) was implemented to get short-run dynamics for which a negative relation was established for trade openness (TRDOP) which contradicts previous studies. The negative relationship of TRDOP with international reserves in India could be due to the outcome of sustained trade deficits of Indian balance of payments. The economic growth variable exhibits a positive relationship which is consistent with previous studies. All variables were found significant at a 5 per cent level. The ECM suggested the same results as its long-run counterpart.

scholarly journals Effects of Young and Ageing Population on Education Expenditure

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (9) ◽  
pp. 86-105
Author(s):  
Nur Haiza Nordin ◽  
Normaz Wana Ismail ◽  
Nur Naddia Nordin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Young Population ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
China And India ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

The motivation of the study is to analyze the impact of young and ageing population on education expenditure in China and India as demographic projection forecast that the percentage of population in India are increasing overtime. The used of long time series data of China and India from 1970 to 2011 helps us to identify the long-run relationship between young and ageing population and education expenditure. The result of the bound test showed that there is a stable long-run relationship between young population and education expenditure, while ageing population is negative relationship with education expenditure. In fact, short-term and long-term result revealed that the young population influences education expenditure in China and India.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Manufacturing Sector Value Added in Ethiopia: An Application of Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagim Tadesse Bekele ◽  
Meskerem Teka Haile
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

The role of the manufacturing sector for the economic growth and structural change is very low in Ethiopia and performing less compering with that of the other sectors in the economy. So, this research tried to look at how different macroeconomic variables affect the manufacturing sector value added by using annual time series data from 1982 to 2018 estimated by Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL). The result from the Bound test shows manufacturing sector value added has a long-run relationship with macroeconomic variables in the model. In the long-run, general inflation rate, exchange rate, and trade openness have a significant negative effect on the manufacturing sector value-added. In contrast, general government expenditure has a significant positive effect. Also, the Error Correction model shows an adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium of the manufacturing sector value-added. So, the government has to control the general inflation level, promote demand for domestic manufacturing products and competitiveness of domestic firms, and strengthen the backward link of the sector to decrease its import-input dependency to reduce the effect of exchange rate depressions. Lastly, effective and efficient government expenditure will have to be used to increase the manufacturing sector value-added.

scholarly journals The Impact of Corruption on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 27-50
Author(s):  
Muftau Olaiya Olarinde ◽  
Jacob Msonter Jonathan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

This study empirically analyses the impact of corruption on economic growth in Nigeria, using time series data for the period 1980-2015 analyzed through the ARDL technique.  The result of the Bound test confirmed the existence of Cointegration among the variables. The ARDL results revealed that corruption has a significant negative influence on economic growth both in the short run and long run. It was further confirmed that external debt, agricultural output, and human capital development positively impact growth while FDI and inflation rate endanger growth, in both the short and long run. The result of the interacting term revealed the damaging influence of corruption on the positive impact of human capital expenditure and external debt on economic growth. Based on the findings of the study, it is obvious that achievement of growth that is sustainable will remain elusive in a corrupt environment. The study, therefore recommends that government should strengthen the activities of the anti-corruption agencies in Nigeria to reduce the rate of corruption.

International Real Estate Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-322
Author(s):  
Yuqing Hu ◽  
◽  
Piyush Tiwari ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper identifies the impact of macroeconomic determinants of commercial property investment and development markets in Australia. A Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is used to filter the cyclical components of commercial property investment and development time series. In order to identify the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics, coupled with causality between these factors and property cycles, the investment and development property cycles are analyed with respect to the movement of nine macroeconomic factors by using time series data from 1987 to 2016. The empirical results suggest that the Australian commercial property market is often in an overdemand situation rather than oversupply, which can be explained by the different patterns of the property cycles on the demand and supply sides. Property investment cycles are shorter and more volatile than development cycles at around 8-10 years and more than 20 years, respectively, since there is a larger elasticity of the macroeconomic factors that underlie the investment market with short-term dynamics, while the development cycle is mainly affected by such factors moderately in the long run. Both the investment and development markets are intensively affected by financing related variables rather than market-sentiment and economic-cycle related variables.

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MALAYSIA FROM 1980-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
Khairunisah Kamsin ◽  
James Alin ◽  
Mori Kogid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

This study analyses the impact of trade openness on economic growth, between 1980-2018. This study using the unit root test (ADF) and the Philip and Perron (PP) test to examine the stationary of the time series data, the ARDL test to show the cointegration and long-run relationship between variables, and the Wald test to show the short-term effect of the variables. The finding shows that all variables have a long-run relationship with economic growth and the bound test shows that foreign direct investment (FDI) and the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) have a positive and significant relationship with economic growth. The study also found that openness is correlated with economic growth in Malaysia.

scholarly journals Agricultural Financing and Unemployment Rate in Nigeria: A Cointegration Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-67
Author(s):  
Raymond Rahaj Adegboyega
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Analytical Techniques ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn Nigeria, the level of agricultural productivity and farmers’ income have been affected by inadequate financing, which invariably discourages job creation and increases unemployment rate. Therefore, the study examines the impact of agricultural financing on unemployment rate in Nigeria, using time series data collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the World Bank database from 1981 to 2018. Using Johansen’s cointegration, Error Correction Method (ECM), and Granger causality analytical techniques, our findings show that AGRIC_GDP, AGRICL_TL, GR, LR, and RUTP have a long-run relationship with UNEMPR and are statistically significant. Also, the ECM of about 57%, which is statistically significant, provides an indication of a satisfactory speed of adjustment and translates that about 57 percent of the errors are corrected in each period. The study recommends among others that government policy on agricultural credit should place more emphasis on strengthening banks’ commitment.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document