scholarly journals Agricultural Financing and Unemployment Rate in Nigeria: A Cointegration Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-67
Author(s):  
Raymond Rahaj Adegboyega
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Analytical Techniques ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn Nigeria, the level of agricultural productivity and farmers’ income have been affected by inadequate financing, which invariably discourages job creation and increases unemployment rate. Therefore, the study examines the impact of agricultural financing on unemployment rate in Nigeria, using time series data collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the World Bank database from 1981 to 2018. Using Johansen’s cointegration, Error Correction Method (ECM), and Granger causality analytical techniques, our findings show that AGRIC_GDP, AGRICL_TL, GR, LR, and RUTP have a long-run relationship with UNEMPR and are statistically significant. Also, the ECM of about 57%, which is statistically significant, provides an indication of a satisfactory speed of adjustment and translates that about 57 percent of the errors are corrected in each period. The study recommends among others that government policy on agricultural credit should place more emphasis on strengthening banks’ commitment.

scholarly journals The Impact on Unemployment of Social Security Contributions: the Empiricial Analysis in Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Filiz Giray ◽  
Mehmet Çınar
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Social Security Contributions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

Social security contributions are important public incomes after taxes in OECD countries. Beside, social security contributions as a mean of the finance of social security system is a determiner on the main macroeconomic factors such as savings, employment, the cost of employment, the level of shadow economy, economic growth, competitiveness and income inequality. Employment has been important policy goals in Turkey like many OECD countries during recent decades. High unemployment rate is a serious problem for countries. Effecting negatively labor market, high burden of social security contributions causes low level of employment. The aim of this study is to find the relationship between social security contributions and unemployment for Turkey. Therefore, we can evaluate whether reducing social security contributions is a way reducing of unemployment or not. We use time series data during period 1965-2015. The research methodology is based on an analysis of indicators as unemployment rate, social security contributions as percentage of GDPs, the percentage of total tax revenues. Unit root test is non-stationary for social security contributions. On the other hand, unemployment is stationary for related period. The long run relationship between variables was tested by ARDL bound test approach. Based on the sample results, there is a long run cointegration between social security contributions and unemployment rate (both as percentage of GDP and percentage of taxation).

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals BANKING SECTOR LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najia SAQIB
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
The Impact

Economic theory suggests that sound and efficient financial systems channel capitals to its most productive uses are beneficial for economic growth. Sound and efficient financial systems are especially important for sustaining growth in developing countries. This paper examines the impact of banking sector liberalization on long-term economic growth in Pakistan by using a time series data for the period 1971–2011. The results show that there exist a significant positive long run relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in the country. The sensitivity analysis also shows that the relationship remain positive and significant no matter what combination of the omitted variables are used in the basic model. Thus, our findings support the core idea that banking sector development stimulates long term economic growth in a country.

Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from a Front-line State

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imtiaz Arif ◽  
Tahir Suleman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Factor Index ◽  
The Impact

This article investigates the impact of prolonged terrorist activities on stock prices of different sectors listed in the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) by using the newly developed terrorism impact factor index with lingering effect (TIFL) and monthly time series data from 2002 (January) to 2011 (December). Johansen and Juselius (JJ) cointegration revealed a long-run relationship between terrorism and stock price. Normalized cointegration vectors are used to test the effect of terrorism on stock price. Results demonstrate a significantly mixed positive and negative impact of prolonged terrorism on stock prices of different sectors and show that the market has not become insensitive to the prolonged terrorist attacks.

scholarly journals Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Human Development Index in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Marius KOUNOU
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Many studies have been done on the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on economic growth and poverty reduction in developing countries, however there is a lack of empirical studies of FDI impact on poverty reduction in South Africa which is the second largest FDI recipients of one of the poorest regions in the world (sub Saharan Africa). We used time series data from 1990 to 2017 with the ARDL method to evaluate the impact of FDI Inflow on HDI in the country. The results show that FDI inflow has no significant impact on HDI both in the short run and long run on the country. This result is consistent with findings reported in the literature.

scholarly journals Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected West African Countries (Cameroon, Cape Verde, Nigeria and Senegal)

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muriel Adarkwa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
West African ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Series Data ◽  
African Countries ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Remittances from abroad play a key role in the development of many West African countries. Remittances tend to increase the income of recipients, reduce shortage of foreign exchange and help alleviate poverty. This research examines the impact of remittances on economic growth in four selected West African countries: Cameroon, Cape Verde, Nigeria and Senegal. Using developmentalist, structuralist and pluralist views on remittances, a linear regression was run on time series data from the World Bank database for the period 2000–2010. After a critical analysis of the impact of remittances on economic growth in these four countries, it was found that inflow of remittances to Senegal and Nigeria has a positive effect on these countries’ gross domestic product whereas for Cape Verde and Cameroon it had a negative effect. Cameroon benefitted the least from remittances and Nigeria benefitted the most within the period. One contribution of this study is the finding that remittance inflows need to be invested in productive sectors. Even if remittances continue to increase, without investment in productive sectors they cannot have any meaningful impact on economic growth in these countries.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact On Rice Production in Pakistan: An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Habibullah Magsi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.

scholarly journals The Impact of Globalization on Human Development Index: A Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adiqa Kiani ◽  
Noor Mohammad ◽  
Raheem Bux Soomro
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Human Development Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Political Dimensions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The main objective of the study is to explore the short and long run relationship of globalization and human development index for 34 years during 1980 to 2014. In order to analyze economic, social and political dimensions of globalization separately for Pakistan economy. The time series data compiled from various sources including UNDP annual Human Development Reports, SPDC Social Development report, Pakistan Review 2005-06, World Bank and KOF. A semi-log model was used to explain the relationship, whereas some other models were also used to test the mobility of the variables. The test applied is ADF test and on the basis of ADF test results, the ARDL method of co integration was used to test long run impact of all independent variables on human development index. From the findings, we may conclude that globalization overall and social, political and economic globalization have positive impact on human development index for Pakistan, whereas some control variables like population density effects positively, and greenhouse gas emissions significantly and negatively affect the globalization. It is suggested that in order to improve the globalization, it is mandatory to focus on indirect effects of globalization and make necessary plans to reduce such emissions.

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