scholarly journals Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So

2010 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael F. Bryan ◽  
Brent H. Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Sticky Prices ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Index Change ◽  
Forward Looking

Some of the items that make up the Consumer Price Index change prices frequently, while others are slow to change. We explore whether these two sets of prices--sticky and flexible--provide insight on different aspects of the inflation process. We find that sticky prices appear to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a frequent basis, while flexible prices respond more powerfully to economic conditions--economic slack. Importantly, our sticky-price measure seems to contain a component of inflation expectations, and that component may be useful when trying to gauge where inflation is heading.

scholarly journals Breast-Feeding Decline despite Deteriorating Socio-Economic Conditions

1994 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
Bendley Melville
Keyword(s):  
Breast Feeding ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Artificial Feeding ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Feeding Duration ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

The impact of deteriorating socio-economic conditions on breast-feeding duration in Jamaica is examined In spite of dramatic increases in the consumer price index for food and drink and consequently in the cost of artificial feeding, breast-feeding duration declined by 10.6% during 19871991. This was apparently due to a reduction in postpartum visits by district midwives. It is concluded that breast-feeding promotion should receive increased support under conditions of severe economic hardship.

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor Indeks Harga Konsumen Kota Semarang

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Novia Nafisah ◽  
Respatiwulan Respatiwulan
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Urban Communities ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Underlying Factor ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Eigen Value

<p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) can describe consumption patterns in the community. The CPI is also used to calculate inflation rates that reflect a country's economic conditions. The CPI for sub-expenditure consists of 7 groups divided into 35 sub-groups. Factor analysis on CPI was conducted to reduce variables, to identify underlying factors, and to classify variables in the Semarang City CPI expenditure group from January 2014 to August 2017. As the result, there is only one underlying factor, namely the primary needs of urban communities with cumulative variance value of 88.509%, eigenvalues of 23.012 consisting of 27 subgroup variables.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong><strong> :</strong> Consumer Price Index (CPI)<strong>, </strong>factor analysis, eigen value</p>

Great Expectations: A Tactical Asset Allocation Framework for Diversified Real Asset Portfolios

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Great Expectations ◽  
Single Measure ◽  
Tactical Asset Allocation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Unexpected Inflation

Diversified real return strategies are multi-asset portfolios structured to possess a heightened sensitivity to inflation relative to traditional stocks and bonds. The majority of such strategies focus on a single measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index. However, a more comprehensive way to construct inflation-sensitive portfolios is in terms of expected and unexpected inflation, the latter defined as the difference between a particular measure of inflation expectations and realized inflation. To that end, in this article, the authors describe an investment framework that dynamically classifies each type of inflation as belonging to one type of state: a stable state, in which inflation continues its longer-term trend, and a deviant state, in which expected or unexpected inflation departs significantly from its longer-term average. The authors show how the framework can be used to build portfolios using information from both stable and deviant states to outperform realized inflation through different market environments.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF INFLATION PERSISTENCE IN SERBIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjana Miletić ◽  
Siniša Miletić
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Inflation Persistence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Level ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
Simple Average

In this paper, we analyzed inflation persistence in Serbia, both at the aggregatelevel as well as for the different components of the consumer price index. Theanalysis was done for the series of prices given on the quarterly basis for the periodfrom 2002q1 to 2013q2. We applied univariate autoregression model (AR) of order p,whereby sum of autoregression coefficients was used as a measure of inflationpersistence. In addition, special attention was paid to the problem of structural breaksin the series of inflation as it may overestimate the level of inflation persistence andcould give misleading signals. The importance of appropriate assessment of theinflation persistence stems from the fact that the impossibility of faster return ofinflation to the long-run equilibrium level, after external or domestic shock, hasimplications on the conducting of monetary policy and represents a major challengefor its effectiveness, especially in emerging countries like Serbia. If the persistence ofinflation is higher, monetary policy reaction should be stronger and proactive. If theestimated level and persistence of inflation is lower in comparison with previousempirical analysis, this could suggest that inflation expectations are now betteranchored, which is particularly important for countries with inflation targetingregime. Results of the analysis indicate that the inflation persistence in the Serbia ismodest and that is higher at the aggregate level compared to the simple average of thecomponents of the consumer price index. This is probably consequence of so-calledaggregation effect, since the highest persistency have the prices of those products withthe largest share in the consumer basket. In the case of Serbia, food prices have thehighest degree of persistence and the largest share in the consumer basket.

Forecasting and Technical Comparison of Inflation in Turkey With Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Models and the Artificial Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 84-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erkan Işığıçok ◽  
Ramazan Öz ◽  
Savaş Tarkun
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Future ◽  
Alternative Techniques ◽  
Artificial Neural

Inflation refers to an ongoing and overall comprehensive increase in the overall level of goods and services price in the economy. Today, inflation, which is attempted to be kept under control by central banks or, in the same way, whose price stability is attempted, consists of continuous price changes that occur in all the goods and services used by the consumers. Undoubtedly, in terms of economy, in addition to the realized inflation, inflation expectations are also gaining importance. This situation requires forecasting the future rates of inflation. Therefore, reliable forecasting of the future rates of inflation in a country will determine the policies to be applied by the decision-makers in the economy. The aim of this study is to predict inflation in the next period based on the consumer price index (CPI) data with two alternative techniques and to examine the predictive performance of these two techniques comparatively. Thus, the first of the two main objectives of the study are to forecast the future rates of inflation with two alternative techniques, while the second is to compare the two techniques with respect to statistical and econometric criteria and determine which technique performs better in comparison. In this context, the 9-month inflation in April-December 2019 was forecast by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), using the CPI data which consist of 207 data from January 2002 to March 2019 and the predictive performance of both techniques was examined comparatively. It was observed that the results obtained from both techniques were close to each other.

Dampak Penerapan Perbankan Syari’ah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara: Kajian Perbandingan Malaysia dan Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Hansen Rusliani
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak perbankan syari’ah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dan Malaysia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data primer (interview) dan data sekunder dalam bentuk bulanan yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Bank Indonesia (SEKI-BI) dan Statistik Perbankan Syari’ah Bank Indonesia (SPS-BI) serta data dari Bank Negara Malaysia dan Departemen Statistik Malaysia dalam periode waktu kurun waktu 16 tahun, 2000 sampai dengan 2015. Observasi penelitian dilakukan di Indonesia dan Malaysia untuk memperkaya analisis. Penelitian ini menggunakan Vector Autoregression (VAR), Uji Kointegrasi serta dikombinasikan dengan Response Function (IRF) dan Decomposition (FEVD) untuk melihat interaksi antara faktor makro ekonomi dengan pembiayaan dalam jangka panjang. Adapun variabel yang digunakan adalah total pembiayan syari’ah (Total Syari’ah Financing) dan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) sebagai representasi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk tambahan variabel digunakan Consumer Price Index (CPI) sebagai representasi tingkat inflasi. Hipotesis penelitian yaitu terdapat pertumbuhan ekonomi setiap tahunnya dikedua negara tersebut pasca krisis moneter.

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