Great Expectations: A Tactical Asset Allocation Framework for Diversified Real Asset Portfolios

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Great Expectations ◽  
Single Measure ◽  
Tactical Asset Allocation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Unexpected Inflation

Diversified real return strategies are multi-asset portfolios structured to possess a heightened sensitivity to inflation relative to traditional stocks and bonds. The majority of such strategies focus on a single measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index. However, a more comprehensive way to construct inflation-sensitive portfolios is in terms of expected and unexpected inflation, the latter defined as the difference between a particular measure of inflation expectations and realized inflation. To that end, in this article, the authors describe an investment framework that dynamically classifies each type of inflation as belonging to one type of state: a stable state, in which inflation continues its longer-term trend, and a deviant state, in which expected or unexpected inflation departs significantly from its longer-term average. The authors show how the framework can be used to build portfolios using information from both stable and deviant states to outperform realized inflation through different market environments.

scholarly journals Törnqvist Formula for Сalculating a Consumer Price Index in Russia: Theory and Practice

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 87-94
Author(s):  
М. A. Kozlova
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Consumer Market ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Realistic Description ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Main Consumer

The article reflects the author’s position on the adjustment of the so-called substitution bias, which affects the value of the consumer price index, currently calculated using the Laspeyres formula. The author proposes a solution to the problem of the adequacy of statistical measurements of the dynamics of consumer prices in the case when, as a result of changing cost of the consumer basket, a buyer replaces a relatively expensive product with a relatively cheaper one. This solution is based on the existing index construction methodology (axiomatic, economic and stochastic approaches). The article substantiates the use of the Törnqvist formula, which has better properties in comparison with other formulae used in the construction of superlative indices. The authors calculated the Törnqvist price index for Russia based on Rosstat methodology and data using country-level quarterly group price indices and shares of consumer spending. To evaluate the results of empirical testing Laspeyres price index was compiled using the same quarterly data as the Törnqvist index. The values of the Törnqvist price index in most cases are less than the price dynamics obtained according to the Laspeyres formula. This conclusion is proved both theoretically and empirically, and it is confirmed for Russia as well. However, due to the non-observance of the conditions of smooth trends in consumer prices, the difference between the values of the Törnqvist and Laspeyres indices is significantly larger in certain quarters than that presented in empirical studies in other countries. Consumer price index, calculated using the Törnqvist formula, in the system of indicators of price statistics in Russia can be defined as an indicator that specifies the main consumer price index. Calculation of its value is necessary for a more realistic description of the processes taking place in the consumer market.

Abstract TMP75: Average Medicare Reimbursement for Stroke Care Has Decreased From 2000-2019

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R Pines ◽  
Jack Haglin ◽  
Bart Demaerschalk
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Hemorrhagic Stroke ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Stroke Care ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medicare Reimbursement ◽  
Reimbursement Rate ◽  
Icd Codes ◽  
The Difference

Introduction: There is a lack of data regarding financial trends for procedural reimbursement in stroke care. An understanding of such trends is important as progress is made to advance agreeable reimbursement models in the care of stroke patients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate monetary trends in Medicare reimbursement rates for commonly utilized procedures in stroke care from 2000 to 2019. Methods: Reimbursement data for Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes was extracted from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. CPT codes were determined by frequency of procedures for Stroke-related ICD codes at our institution. All monetary data was adjusted for inflation to 2019 US dollars utilizing changes to the United States consumer price index. Results: After adjusting for inflation, the average reimbursement for all four included procedures within hemorrhagic stroke (ICD I60-I62) decreased by 18.4% from 2000 to 2019. The average reimbursement for two procedures within ischemic stroke (ICD I63), craniotomy and thrombectomy, increased by 3.5% (2003 -2019) and increased 3.0% (2016-2019), respectively. Data was not available for craniotomy prior to 2003, and not available for thrombectomy prior to 2016. Further, the adjusted reimbursement rate for included telestroke codes decreased by 12.1% from 2010-2019. All other included procedures decreased by 3.5% throughout this time. The difference in reimbursement rate between telestroke and other stroke-related procedures was statistically significant (p < .0001). Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate trends in Medicare reimbursement for stroke care. When adjusted for inflation, Medicare reimbursement for included procedures has steadily decreased from 2000 to 2019. Increased awareness of these trends is important to assure continued access to quality stroke care in the United States.

scholarly journals Impact of Portfolio Strategies on Portfolio Performance and Risk

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Zunera Shaukat ◽  
Ahmad Shahzad
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Portfolio Performance ◽  
Dynamic Asset Allocation ◽  
Portfolio Strategies ◽  
Tactical Asset Allocation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Post Hoc ◽  
The Relationship

The Portfolio strategies are the effective investment tools pertaining to active and passive investment approaches. This signifies the investor’s inclination of buying and selling the risky and risk-free assets. The research includes four strategies namely buy and hold strategy, dynamic asset allocation, strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation along with their dimensions. Strategies based hypothetical portfolios are generated on the basis of 14 years’ stock prices (2005-2017). The annually and monthly risk-adjusted return ratios; Sharpe ratio, Treynor’s measure, CAPM and Jenson Alpha are calculated individually. Simulated annualized portfolios generate significant result with Sharpe and treynor measure. Alpha return is generated with buy and hold if based on growth in stock prices. For empirical result, One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used for studying the relationship between the strategies. Post hoc Tukey’s test is applied to find the difference between the strategies. The ANOVA and Tukey’s post hoc test for monthly portfolios gives significant results with three measure Sharpe ratio, CAPM and Jenson Alpha. No empirical significant result is measured on the basis of treynor measure.

Research on Asset Allocation Model of Pension Fund in China

2011 ◽  
Vol 422 ◽  
pp. 448-451
Author(s):  
Mei Wang ◽  
Li Yan Han ◽  
Yan Sui Yang
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Pension Fund ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Minimum Variance ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Investment Policies ◽  
The Core

The preservation and appreciation of pension fund is the core of the whole pension system. As the cash for daily life of the retiree, the investment rate of return of pension fund has to be higher than Consumer Price Index (CPI) in order to maintain the purchase power of pension and play a security role. On the basis of Markowitz theory, the constraint of CPI was added in this paper. The weight of all assets in optimum portfolio and the minimum variance of the portfolio under current financial market were calculated by Matlab software in China. Finally, suggestions on reforming investment policies of pension fund in China were given.

The Choice of Medical Care Price Index: Implications for Life Care Plan Valuations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Gaughan ◽  
Viviane Luporini
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Care Plan ◽  
Life Care ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Care Plans ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data

Abstract This study examines the importance of using appropriate inflation measures in the estimation of a life care plan value. Using data from 1989 through 2018, we compare medical inflation rates measured by the Consumer Price Index Medical (CPI Medical) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Health (PCE Health) price index while discussing the reasons why the indices differ. We also explain why certain policymakers favor the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) over the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In demonstrating how the value of life care plans can differ based upon the use of either of these indices we applied 10-year historical arithmetic averages of both indices to a large hypothetical life care plan. Our calculations indicate that using the CPI versus the PCE results in a difference that is 7.5 times the initial value of the plan, after accumulation of nominal annual values that are undiscounted to present value. We also show how the difference between using the CPI Medical versus the PCE Health increases over time, implying that using one price index or the other will have a greater impact on life care plan values the longer the projection period. Our analysis shows that experts should consider the use of PCE indices when valuing life care plans.

scholarly journals Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So

2010 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael F. Bryan ◽  
Brent H. Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Sticky Prices ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Index Change ◽  
Forward Looking

Some of the items that make up the Consumer Price Index change prices frequently, while others are slow to change. We explore whether these two sets of prices--sticky and flexible--provide insight on different aspects of the inflation process. We find that sticky prices appear to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a frequent basis, while flexible prices respond more powerfully to economic conditions--economic slack. Importantly, our sticky-price measure seems to contain a component of inflation expectations, and that component may be useful when trying to gauge where inflation is heading.

Lowe and Cobb-Douglas Consumer Price Indices and their Substitution Bias

2010 ◽  
Vol 230 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bert M. Balk
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Target Cost ◽  
The World ◽  
Substitution Bias ◽  
Statistical Agencies ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Cost Of Living Index

SummaryCatching the effect of substitution behaviour in a Consumer Price Index (CPI) as good as possible is a goal pursued by statistical agencies throughout the world. The difference between a CPI and a certain target cost-of-living index is called substitution bias. Balk and Diewert (2003) considered the substitution bias of a Lowe Consumer Price Index; see also CPI Manual (2004: Chapter 17). The present paper considers the substitution bias of a Cobb-Douglas (or Geometric Young) CPI, and compares the two price indices with respect to their substitution bias. It appears difficult to draw a clear-cut conclusion.

scholarly journals The use of web-scraped data to analyze the dynamics of footwear prices

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 251-269
Author(s):  
Adam Juszczak ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Online Shopping ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Full Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Web Scraping ◽  
Price Indexes ◽  
The Difference

Aim/purpose – Web-scraping is a technique used to automatically extract data from websites. After the rise-up of online shopping, it allows the acquisition of information about prices of goods sold by retailers such as supermarkets or internet shops. This study examines the possibility of using web-scrapped data from one clothing store. It aims at comparing known price index formulas being implemented to the web-scraping case and verifying their sensitivity on the choice of data filter type. Design/methodology/approach – The author uses the price data scrapped from one of the biggest online shops in Poland. The data were obtained as part of eCPI (electronic Consumer Price Index) project conducted by the National Bank of Poland. The author decided to select three types of products for this analysis – female ballerinas, male shoes, and male oxfords to compare their prices in over one-year time period. Six price indexes were used for calculation – The Jevons and Dutot indexes with their chain and GEKS (acronym from the names of creators – Gini–Éltető–Köves–Szulc) versions. Apart from the analysis conducted on a full data set, the author introduced filters to remove outliers. Findings – Clothing and footwear are considered one of the most difficult groups of goods to measure price change indexes due to high product churn, which undermines the possibility to use the traditional Jevons and Dutot indexes. However, it is possible to use chained indexes and GEKS indexes instead. Still, these indexes are fairly sensitive to large price changes. As observed in case of both product groups, the results provided by the GEKS and chained versions of indexes were different, which could lead to conclu- sion that even though they are lending promising results, they could be better suited for other COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose) groups. Research implications/limitations – The findings of the paper showed that usage of filters did not significantly reduce the difference between price indexes based on GEKS and chain formulas. Originality/value/contribution – The usage of web-scrapped data is a fairly new topic in the literature. Research on the possibility of using different price indexes provides useful insights for future usage of these data by statistics offices. Keywords: inflation, CPI, web-scraping, online shopping, big data. JEL Classification: C43, C49

scholarly journals Basic Statistics of Jevons and Carli Indices under the GBM Price Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 737-761
Author(s):  
Jacek Białek
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Index Formula ◽  
Elementary Level ◽  
Mean Squared Errors ◽  
Elementary Formula ◽  
Labor Statistics ◽  
Level Of Aggregation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Bureau Of Labor Statistics

AbstractMost countries use either the Jevons or Carli index for the calculation of their Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the lowest (elementary) level of aggregation. The choice of the elementary formula for inflation measurement does matter and the effect of the change of the index formula was estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (2001). It has been shown in the literature that the difference between the Carli index and the Jevons index is bounded from below by the variance of the price relatives. In this article, we extend this result, comparing expected values and variances of these sample indices under the assumption that prices are described by a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). We provide formulas for their biases, variances and mean-squared errors.

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